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Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. (MCRI) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$114.74 +3.80% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $115.31

Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. (MCRI) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.98B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MCRI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. (NASDAQ: MCRI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $114.74 (+3.80% 1D, market cap $1.98B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MCRI ranks #396 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MCRI compare to XHR and PENN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), MCRI carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.8x, gross margin of 23.4%, and ROIC of 18.9%. By comparison, XHR (Xenia Hotels & Resorts Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 30.3x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $1.89B) and PENN (PENN Entertainment Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.3%, cap $2.13B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MLCO leads on earnings multiple (8.2x) while MCRI leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MCRI?
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Per MCRI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000907242), Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. generated $545.1M in revenue (+4.4% YoY), $101.4M in net income, and $128.4M in free cash flow against $712.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (23% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $115.30 (+0.49%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 23.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510057
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D
Cash (17)Whales (6)SEC (10)Macro (8)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target
$143 Bull$114 Base$89 Bear
📬 FREE MCRI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MCRI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MCRI SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 23.6% FCF Margin ($128.4M FCF) & 23.4% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
65
Grade C+$115.84-1.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$114.25+0.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$115.28-0.5% Next Q
Current
57
Grade D+$114.74-0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (65) → D+ (57)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MCRI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, MCRI faces multiple-compression risk if 19.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($117.50) or 200D SMA ($112.91) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($114.22) toward Bear Floor ($89.09).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MCRI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MCRI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How MCRI Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$128.4M (23.6% FCF Margin)
Revenue$545.1MGross Profit $127.5M (23.4%)Cost of Sales $417.6MOp Profit $0 (0%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $127.5MNet Profit$101.4M (18.6%)Tax/Other $0

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $501.5M
FY24
Rev $522.2M
FY25
Rev $545.1M
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$545.1M23.4%0%$101.4M$128.4M18.9%
FY 2024$522.2M17.7%0%$72.8M$93.3M18.9%
FY 2023$501.5M23.4%0%$82.4M$173.0M18.9%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MCRI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MCRI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MCRI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -2.01%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $111.8H $114.7L $110.5C $114.7VOL 236.4K
RES: $120.6SUP: $106.5SMA50: $117.5SMA200: $112.9
$138.5$127.7$116.9$106.1$95.29RES $120.6SUP $106.5$114.72026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MCRI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MCRI Butterfly Map → + Track MCRI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
13.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MCRI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MCRI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MCRI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MCRI)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #396 of 1011 ⚔️ XHR vs MCRI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MCRI vs. XHR, PENN, SHO, MLCO)

Industry: Hotels/Resorts (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. (MCRI) ranks #396 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #416 by equity capitalization ($1.98B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MLCO leads on earnings valuation at 8.2x trailing P/E, while MCRI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.9% ROIC and 23.4% gross margin. SHO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with MCRI at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MCRI ACTIVE
Monarch Casino & Resort Inc.
D+ 57/100 19.8x 23.4% 18.9% +3.80% $1.98B Benchmark Subject
XHR
Xenia Hotels & Resorts Inc.
C- 59/100 30.3x 30.6% 8.5% +2.64% $1.89B /xhr-vs-mcri →
PENN
PENN Entertainment Inc.
D 48/100 — — -13.3% +7.11% $2.13B /penn-vs-mcri →
SHO
Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc.
C+ 66/100 — — — +0.55% $2.38B /sho-vs-mcri →
MLCO
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited
D 44/100 8.2x — 10.6% +4.57% $1.55B /mlco-vs-mcri →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000907242

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. (MCRI) reported GAAP revenue of $545.1M (+4.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $522.2M , and +8.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $101.4M, operating cash flow of $164.7M, and free cash flow of $128.4M (+37.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, MCRI closed FY2025 with $712.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $545.1M $101.4M $164.7M $128.4M $712.8M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $522.2M $72.8M $140.7M $93.3M $691.6M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $501.5M $82.4M $173.0M $173.0M — —

3. MCRI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MCRI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. (NASDAQ: MCRI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $114.74 (+3.80% 1D, market cap $1.98B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MCRI ranks #396 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MCRI compare to XHR and PENN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), MCRI carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.8x, gross margin of 23.4%, and ROIC of 18.9%. By comparison, XHR (Xenia Hotels & Resorts Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 30.3x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $1.89B) and PENN (PENN Entertainment Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.3%, cap $2.13B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MLCO leads on earnings multiple (8.2x) while MCRI leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MCRI?

Per MCRI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000907242), Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. generated $545.1M in revenue (+4.4% YoY), $101.4M in net income, and $128.4M in free cash flow against $712.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (23% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MCRI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MCRI last traded at $114.74 (+3.80% on volume of 209,877 shares), positioning the stock -2.35% below its 50-day simple moving average ($117.50) and +1.62% above its 200-day simple moving average ($112.91). Across its 52-week range of $88.34 to $135.93, MCRI sits at the 55.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 37.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.6% ($109.46 to $120.02).

Direct Sub-Reports: MCRI RQD Cockpit MCRI 12M Forecast MCRI Earnings & Move MCRI Dividends & DRIP MCRI Insiders & 13F MCRI Whale Options MCRI Profit Sankey MCRI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MCRI — Monarch Casino & Resort Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. (MCRI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 57/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $114.74 (+3.80% 1D, market capitalization $1.98B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (17/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 18.9%, gross margin of 23.4%, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 6.41%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Hotels/Resorts industry..0B. Per the market data, gross margin is 23.4%, operating margin is 0%, and net margin is 18.6%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. (MCRI) reported $545.1M in annual revenue (up from $522.2M in FY2024, +4.4% YoY) and $101.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($501.5M revenue, $82.4M net income) through FY2025, MCRI scaled operating cash flow to $164.7M and free cash flow to $128.4M, backed by $712.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 57/100): Strong cash generator (23% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 17/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $88.34 – $135.93 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 19.8x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector context provided is the classification as Consumer Discretionary / Hotels/Resorts.

  • Key Question #1: Can MCRI sustain or expand its — operating margin and 18.9% ROIC against Hotels/Resorts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $545.1M and free cash flow of $128.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MCRI's 18.4x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MCRI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. (MCRI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MCRI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MCRI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $114.74?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MCRI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MCRI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $145.91 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The Fundamental Cash Engine pillar scores 17 of 20 on an 18.9% ROIC and 6.41% FCF yield.

Long MCRI at $110.54 targeting $145.91. The Fundamental Cash Engine pillar scores 17 of 20 on an 18.9% ROIC and 6.41% FCF yield.. Institutional whale score is 6/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $88.34 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Shorting a 6/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $110.54 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $88.43 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $110.54

The rating's Whale/13F Flow pillar scores only 6 of 20, signaling weak institutional accumulation.

I respect the product at Monarch Casino & Resort Inc., but the stock at $110.54 is a different story. The rating's Whale/13F Flow pillar scores only 6 of 20, signaling weak institutional accumulation.. FCF yield is 6.41% and RQD sits at 57/100 (D+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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