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Stock Ratings / Utilities / TXNM / financials
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TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$58.38 -0.46% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $58.22

TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $6.46B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TXNM Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TXNM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, TXNM Energy Inc. (NYSE: TXNM) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $58.38 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $6.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, TXNM ranks #36 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TXNM compare to BKH and ENIC in the Utilities sector?
▼

Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), TXNM carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 38.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.1%. By comparison, BKH (Black Hills Corporation) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 21.3x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $6.21B) and ENIC (Enel Chile S.A. (Each representing 50 shares of )) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.85B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BKH leads on earnings multiple (21.3x) while BKH leads on capital efficiency (5.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TXNM?
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Per TXNM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001108426), TXNM Energy Inc. generated $2.14B in revenue (+9.0% YoY), $169.8M in net income, and $488.3M in free cash flow against $12.06B in total assets and $5.12B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $58.22 (-0.27%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 22.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510059
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D+
Cash (11)Whales (13)SEC (10)Macro (11)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.4% Base Target
$69 Bull$59 Base$46 Bear
📬 FREE TXNM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TXNM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TXNM SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±1.8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
67
Grade B-$58.53-0.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$58.49+0.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
62
Grade C+$58.63-0.4% Next Q
Current
59
Grade C-$58.38+0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (67) → C- (59)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TXNM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, TXNM faces multiple-compression risk if 38.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($58.29) or 200D SMA ($58.39) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($58.64) toward Bear Floor ($45.74).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TXNM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TXNM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How TXNM Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$488.3M (22.9% FCF Margin)
Revenue$2.14BGross Profit $1.11B (52%)Cost of Sales $1.03BOp Profit $441.2M (20.6%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $670.0MNet Profit$169.8M (7.9%)Tax/Other $271.4M

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $1.91B
FY24
Rev $1.96B
FY25
Rev $2.14B
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$2.14B52%20.6%$169.8M$488.3M4.1%
FY 2024$1.96B52%23.1%$258.7M$420.0M5.2%
FY 2023$1.91B52%12.1%$106.9M$465.0M8.5%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TXNM)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TXNM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TXNM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.37%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $58.60H $58.65L $58.38C $58.38VOL 1.44M
RES: $58.99SUP: $58.30SMA50: $58.29SMA200: $58.39
$59.80$58.67$57.55$56.42$55.29RES $58.99SUP $58.30$58.382026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TXNM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TXNM Butterfly Map → + Track TXNM →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
29.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TXNM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TXNM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TXNM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TXNM)

Utilities Rank #36 of 117 ⚔️ BKH vs TXNM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (TXNM vs. BKH, ENIC, ORA, CWEN)

Industry: Electric Utilities: Central (56 Tracked Issuers)

Across 117 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) ranks #36 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #50 by equity capitalization ($6.46B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BKH leads on earnings valuation at 21.3x trailing P/E, while BKH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.1% ROIC and — gross margin. TXNM currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TXNM ACTIVE
TXNM Energy Inc.
C- 59/100 38.0x — 4.1% -0.46% $6.46B Benchmark Subject
BKH
Black Hills Corporation
D+ 52/100 21.3x — 5.1% +0.68% $6.21B /bkh-vs-txnm →
ENIC
Enel Chile S.A. (Each representing 50 shares of )
D+ 52/100 — — — -2.36% $5.85B /enic-vs-txnm →
ORA
Ormat Technologies Inc.
E 32/100 44.7x 27.6% 3.4% -2.74% $5.67B /ora-vs-txnm →
CWEN
Clearway Energy Inc. (Class C)
D+ 56/100 31.9x 62.9% 0.9% -2.58% $5.39B /cwen-vs-txnm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001108426

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) reported GAAP revenue of $2.14B (+9.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.96B , and +11.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $169.8M, operating cash flow of $584.5M, and free cash flow of $488.3M (+16.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TXNM closed FY2025 with $12.06B in total assets against $5.12B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.80, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.14B $169.8M $584.5M $488.3M $12.06B $5.12B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.96B $258.7M $508.2M $420.0M $11.21B $4.31B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.91B $106.9M $551.2M $465.0M $3.55B $831.3M

3. TXNM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TXNM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, TXNM Energy Inc. (NYSE: TXNM) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $58.38 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $6.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, TXNM ranks #36 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TXNM compare to BKH and ENIC in the Utilities sector?

Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), TXNM carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 38.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.1%. By comparison, BKH (Black Hills Corporation) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 21.3x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $6.21B) and ENIC (Enel Chile S.A. (Each representing 50 shares of )) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.85B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BKH leads on earnings multiple (21.3x) while BKH leads on capital efficiency (5.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TXNM?

Per TXNM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001108426), TXNM Energy Inc. generated $2.14B in revenue (+9.0% YoY), $169.8M in net income, and $488.3M in free cash flow against $12.06B in total assets and $5.12B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TXNM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TXNM last traded at $58.38 (-0.46% on volume of 967,807 shares), positioning the stock +0.15% above its 50-day simple moving average ($58.29) and -0.02% below its 200-day simple moving average ($58.39). Across its 52-week range of $55.64 to $59.53, TXNM sits at the 70.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($57.33 to $59.43).

TXNM Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), TXNM converted $2.1B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 20.6% operating margin, and $488.3M in free cash flow (22.9% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: TXNM RQD Cockpit TXNM 12M Forecast TXNM Earnings & Move TXNM Dividends & DRIP TXNM Insiders & 13F TXNM Whale Options TXNM Profit Sankey TXNM News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 59/100 (C-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TXNM — TXNM Energy Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:19:05Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TXNM scores 59 out of 100, a letter grade of C-, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20 (ROIC 4.1%; FCF yield 7.56%); Whale 13F Flow 13/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction 14/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit 11/20 (Beta 0.49; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet 10/20 (Altman Z 0.8; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 1.5). Investor implications: the strongest pillar is insider conviction, which signals some insider-side confidence, while the weakest pillars are the cash engine and balance sheet. The 4.1% ROIC and Altman Z of 0.8 point to thin returns on capital and elevated financial stress, which is the main valuation tradeoff: the 7.56% FCF yield and 2.53% dividend yield are offset by a trailing P/E of 38 and EV/EBITDA of 22.1. Upside drivers in the data are the insider and institutional flow signals and the low beta of 0.49; downside risks are the balance-sheet metrics and premium valuation. This is an analytical framing, not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
58.65$6.46B3835.322.11.542.53%0.49$55.64 - $59.534.1%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$2136.9M$441.2M$169.8MN/A$488.3M$18.3M$5116.0M
FY 2024$1959.6M$453.5M$258.7MN/A$420.0M$4.5M$4311.8M
FY 2023$1914.9M$231.3M$106.9MN/A$465.0MN/A$831.3M

Per the market data, operating margin is 20.6%, net margin 7.9%, gross margin 0%, and ROIC 4.1%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 0.8 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, with Debt/Equity at 1.5. Reported debt rose from $831.3M (FY 2023) to $5116.0M (FY 2025), while cash remained small at $18.3M in FY 2025.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Earnings: Investing.com reports TXNM beat earnings by $0.08 with revenue topping estimates (GREEN catalyst flag).
  • Merger review: Albuquerque Journal reports PRC examiners let the TXNM-Blackstone merger move forward.
  • Lock-up: marketscreener.com reports certain common stock is subject to a lock-up agreement ending 31-OCT-2026 (a risk watch item).
  • Price action: Yahoo Finance reports the stock trades at a premium after a 48% run.
  • Quarterly results: TradingView reports TXNM Energy results for Third Quarter 2026.
  • Proprietary signals: None in the Butterfly graph.

Open Questions

  • What is the company's actual product mix, customer base, and revenue model (the Business section is unresolved in the source)?
  • What are the terms and financial implications of the Blackstone merger, and how does the 31-OCT-2026 lock-up interact with it?
  • Why did debt rise from $831.3M to $5116.0M over FY 2023–FY 2025, and what drove the increase?
  • What explains the gap between a 38 trailing P/E and a 1.54 EPS-derived earnings base, and how do EPS figures for FY 2023–FY 2025 compare (currently N/A)?
  • What are the sector-level correlations and supply-chain dependencies, given the Butterfly graph returned none?

TXNM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TXNM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TXNM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $58.38?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TXNM 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TXNM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $63.34 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TXNM (C- • RQD 59/100) a Buy at $58.65?

Welcome to the TXNM (TXNM Energy Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 59/100 (Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral) in Electric Utilities: Central. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (38.0x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $48.09 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $58.65

Pump the brakes on TXNM — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TXNM, but look at what you are paying: 38.0x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless TXNM Energy Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $70.97 (+21.0%)
Spot @ $58.65

TXNM cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TXNM, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Electric Utilities: Central and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $58.65 (52-wk range $55.64 - $59.53), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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