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Stock Ratings / Utilities / TXNM / earnings
BKH (52) ENIC (52) ORA (32) CWEN (56) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±1.8% Move

$58.38 -0.46% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $58.22

TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $6.46B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TXNM Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TXNM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, TXNM Energy Inc. (NYSE: TXNM) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $58.38 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $6.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, TXNM ranks #36 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TXNM compare to BKH and ENIC in the Utilities sector?
▼

Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), TXNM carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 38.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.1%. By comparison, BKH (Black Hills Corporation) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 21.3x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $6.21B) and ENIC (Enel Chile S.A. (Each representing 50 shares of )) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.85B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BKH leads on earnings multiple (21.3x) while BKH leads on capital efficiency (5.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TXNM?
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Per TXNM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001108426), TXNM Energy Inc. generated $2.14B in revenue (+9.0% YoY), $169.8M in net income, and $488.3M in free cash flow against $12.06B in total assets and $5.12B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $58.22 (-0.27%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 22.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510059
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D+
Cash (11)Whales (13)SEC (10)Macro (11)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.4% Base Target
$69 Bull$59 Base$46 Bear
📬 FREE TXNM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TXNM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TXNM SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±1.8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
67
Grade B-$58.53-0.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$58.49+0.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
62
Grade C+$58.63-0.4% Next Q
Current
59
Grade C-$58.38+0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (67) → C- (59)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TXNM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, TXNM faces multiple-compression risk if 38.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($58.29) or 200D SMA ($58.39) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($58.64) toward Bear Floor ($45.74).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TXNM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TXNM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±1.8% Swing Band

±$1.05 Expected Swing
$57.33 (-1.8%)Spot $58.38$59.43 (+1.8%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

TXNM Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 59/100

Trailing EPS: $1.54 • YoY Revenue Growth: 9%

Model Bullish Setup (59/100)Model Risk Weight (41/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$2.14B$169.8M$488.3M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$1.96B$258.7M$420.0M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$1.91B$106.9M$465.0M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating TXNM & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on TXNM
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
TXNM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.37%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $58.60H $58.65L $58.38C $58.38VOL 1.44M
RES: $58.99SUP: $58.30SMA50: $58.29SMA200: $58.39
$59.80$58.67$57.55$56.42$55.29RES $58.99SUP $58.30$58.382026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TXNM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TXNM Butterfly Map → + Track TXNM →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
29.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TXNM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TXNM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TXNM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TXNM)

Utilities Rank #36 of 117 ⚔️ BKH vs TXNM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (TXNM vs. BKH, ENIC, ORA, CWEN)

Industry: Electric Utilities: Central (56 Tracked Issuers)

Across 117 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) ranks #36 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #50 by equity capitalization ($6.46B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BKH leads on earnings valuation at 21.3x trailing P/E, while BKH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.1% ROIC and — gross margin. TXNM currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TXNM ACTIVE
TXNM Energy Inc.
C- 59/100 38.0x — 4.1% -0.46% $6.46B Benchmark Subject
BKH
Black Hills Corporation
D+ 52/100 21.3x — 5.1% +0.68% $6.21B /bkh-vs-txnm →
ENIC
Enel Chile S.A. (Each representing 50 shares of )
D+ 52/100 — — — -2.36% $5.85B /enic-vs-txnm →
ORA
Ormat Technologies Inc.
E 32/100 44.7x 27.6% 3.4% -2.74% $5.67B /ora-vs-txnm →
CWEN
Clearway Energy Inc. (Class C)
D+ 56/100 31.9x 62.9% 0.9% -2.58% $5.39B /cwen-vs-txnm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001108426

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) reported GAAP revenue of $2.14B (+9.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.96B , and +11.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $169.8M, operating cash flow of $584.5M, and free cash flow of $488.3M (+16.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TXNM closed FY2025 with $12.06B in total assets against $5.12B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.80, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.14B $169.8M $584.5M $488.3M $12.06B $5.12B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.96B $258.7M $508.2M $420.0M $11.21B $4.31B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.91B $106.9M $551.2M $465.0M $3.55B $831.3M

3. TXNM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TXNM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, TXNM Energy Inc. (NYSE: TXNM) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $58.38 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $6.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, TXNM ranks #36 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TXNM compare to BKH and ENIC in the Utilities sector?

Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), TXNM carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 38.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.1%. By comparison, BKH (Black Hills Corporation) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 21.3x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $6.21B) and ENIC (Enel Chile S.A. (Each representing 50 shares of )) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.85B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BKH leads on earnings multiple (21.3x) while BKH leads on capital efficiency (5.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TXNM?

Per TXNM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001108426), TXNM Energy Inc. generated $2.14B in revenue (+9.0% YoY), $169.8M in net income, and $488.3M in free cash flow against $12.06B in total assets and $5.12B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TXNM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TXNM last traded at $58.38 (-0.46% on volume of 967,807 shares), positioning the stock +0.15% above its 50-day simple moving average ($58.29) and -0.02% below its 200-day simple moving average ($58.39). Across its 52-week range of $55.64 to $59.53, TXNM sits at the 70.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($57.33 to $59.43).

TXNM Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is TXNM's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is TXNM stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±1.8% event move for TXNM, spanning a range between $57.33 and $59.43.

Direct Sub-Reports: TXNM RQD Cockpit TXNM 12M Forecast TXNM Earnings & Move TXNM Dividends & DRIP TXNM Insiders & 13F TXNM Whale Options TXNM Profit Sankey TXNM News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 59/100 (C-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TXNM — TXNM Energy Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:19:05Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TXNM scores 59 out of 100, a letter grade of C-, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20 (ROIC 4.1%; FCF yield 7.56%); Whale 13F Flow 13/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction 14/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit 11/20 (Beta 0.49; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet 10/20 (Altman Z 0.8; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 1.5). Investor implications: the strongest pillar is insider conviction, which signals some insider-side confidence, while the weakest pillars are the cash engine and balance sheet. The 4.1% ROIC and Altman Z of 0.8 point to thin returns on capital and elevated financial stress, which is the main valuation tradeoff: the 7.56% FCF yield and 2.53% dividend yield are offset by a trailing P/E of 38 and EV/EBITDA of 22.1. Upside drivers in the data are the insider and institutional flow signals and the low beta of 0.49; downside risks are the balance-sheet metrics and premium valuation. This is an analytical framing, not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
58.65$6.46B3835.322.11.542.53%0.49$55.64 - $59.534.1%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$2136.9M$441.2M$169.8MN/A$488.3M$18.3M$5116.0M
FY 2024$1959.6M$453.5M$258.7MN/A$420.0M$4.5M$4311.8M
FY 2023$1914.9M$231.3M$106.9MN/A$465.0MN/A$831.3M

Per the market data, operating margin is 20.6%, net margin 7.9%, gross margin 0%, and ROIC 4.1%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 0.8 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, with Debt/Equity at 1.5. Reported debt rose from $831.3M (FY 2023) to $5116.0M (FY 2025), while cash remained small at $18.3M in FY 2025.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Earnings: Investing.com reports TXNM beat earnings by $0.08 with revenue topping estimates (GREEN catalyst flag).
  • Merger review: Albuquerque Journal reports PRC examiners let the TXNM-Blackstone merger move forward.
  • Lock-up: marketscreener.com reports certain common stock is subject to a lock-up agreement ending 31-OCT-2026 (a risk watch item).
  • Price action: Yahoo Finance reports the stock trades at a premium after a 48% run.
  • Quarterly results: TradingView reports TXNM Energy results for Third Quarter 2026.
  • Proprietary signals: None in the Butterfly graph.

Open Questions

  • What is the company's actual product mix, customer base, and revenue model (the Business section is unresolved in the source)?
  • What are the terms and financial implications of the Blackstone merger, and how does the 31-OCT-2026 lock-up interact with it?
  • Why did debt rise from $831.3M to $5116.0M over FY 2023–FY 2025, and what drove the increase?
  • What explains the gap between a 38 trailing P/E and a 1.54 EPS-derived earnings base, and how do EPS figures for FY 2023–FY 2025 compare (currently N/A)?
  • What are the sector-level correlations and supply-chain dependencies, given the Butterfly graph returned none?

TXNM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for TXNM Energy Inc. (TXNM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TXNM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TXNM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $58.38?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TXNM 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TXNM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $63.34 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TXNM (C- • RQD 59/100) a Buy at $58.65?

Welcome to the TXNM (TXNM Energy Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 59/100 (Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral) in Electric Utilities: Central. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (38.0x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $48.09 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $58.65

Pump the brakes on TXNM — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TXNM, but look at what you are paying: 38.0x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless TXNM Energy Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $70.97 (+21.0%)
Spot @ $58.65

TXNM cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TXNM, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Electric Utilities: Central and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $58.65 (52-wk range $55.64 - $59.53), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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