Why TLPH Stock slipped -1.94% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$1.01 -1.94% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.00

Talphera Inc. (TLPH) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $53.5M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TLPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Talphera Inc. (NASDAQ: TLPH) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $1.01 (-1.94% 1D, market cap $53.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TLPH ranks #573 in composite RQD confidence.

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🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TLPH compare to PLRX and HYFT in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), TLPH carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PLRX (Pliant Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $53.2M) and HYFT (MindWalk Holdings Corp.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $53.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TLPH leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TLPH leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

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🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TLPH?
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Per TLPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001427925), Talphera Inc. generated $37.8M in revenue (-11.6% YoY), -$14.3M in net income, and -$11.4M in free cash flow against $29.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.00 (-0.54%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510036
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (5)SEC (10)Macro (10)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.9% Base Target
$2 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE TLPH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TLPH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TLPH SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 36% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 34.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
44
Grade D$1.08+0% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
41
Grade D$1.08-0.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
39
Grade E$1.07-5.6% Next Q
Current
36
Grade D-$1.01-8.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (44) → D- (36)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TLPH Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TLPH currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.14) and Max Pain ($1.06) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $1.65.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TLPH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TLPH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why TLPH Stock slipped -1.94% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Talphera Inc. (TLPH) slipped -1.94% to $1.01, trading at 36% of its 52-week range ($0.69 – $1.57). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 36% of its 52-week range ($0.69 – $1.57) with RSI-14 at 34.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.5% around $1.01 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live TLPH Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 82d ago
Talphera Q2 Earnings Call Highlights

Talphera (NASDAQ:TLPH) said it had reached 75% enrollment in its NEPHRO-CRRT registrational study and remains on track to complete enrollment later in 2026, as the company prepares for a potential commercial launch of it

MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 173d ago
Talphera (TLPH) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript

With this continued progress, we believe we are well positioned to complete enrollment in the nephro CRRT study this year. As mentioned, in early March, we announced the attainment of the 50% enrollment milestone in the

MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 173d ago
Talphera Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Talphera (NASDAQ:TLPH) reported first-quarter financial results on Wednesday. The transcript from the company's first-quarter earnings call has been provided below. This transcript is brought to you by Benzinga APIs. For

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TLPH)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TLPH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
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TLPH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.48%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $1.07H $1.07L $1.01C $1.01VOL 83.5K
RES: $1.10SUP: $1.00SMA50: $1.14SMA200: $1.01
$1.55$1.34$1.12$0.91$0.69RES $1.10SUP $1.00$1.012026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TLPH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TLPH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TLPH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TLPH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TLPH)

Health Care Rank #573 of 1016 ⚔️ PLRX vs TLPH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TLPH vs. PLRX, HYFT, XLO, HRTX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Talphera Inc. (TLPH) ranks #573 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #735 by equity capitalization ($53.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TLPH leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TLPH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. HYFT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 45/100 (D) compared with TLPH at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TLPH ACTIVE
Talphera Inc.
D- 36/100 — — -35.0% -1.94% $53.5M Benchmark Subject
PLRX
Pliant Therapeutics Inc.
E 34/100 — — -35.0% -2.29% $53.2M /plrx-vs-tlph →
HYFT
MindWalk Holdings Corp.
D 45/100 — — — -2.65% $53.8M /hyft-vs-tlph →
XLO
Xilio Therapeutics Inc.
E 25/100 — — -35.0% -0.50% $52.8M /xlo-vs-tlph →
HRTX
Heron Therapeutics Inc.
E 34/100 — 73.3% -35.0% +6.27% $52.7M /hrtx-vs-tlph →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001427925

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Talphera Inc. (TLPH) reported GAAP revenue of $37.8M (-11.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $42.7M , and -20.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$14.3M, operating cash flow of -$11.4M, and free cash flow of -$11.4M (+10.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, TLPH closed FY2025 with $29.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $37.8M -$14.3M -$11.4M -$11.4M $29.7M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $42.7M -$13.0M -$12.7M -$12.7M $18.2M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $47.3M -$18.4M -$17.5M -$17.5M — —

3. TLPH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TLPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Talphera Inc. (NASDAQ: TLPH) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $1.01 (-1.94% 1D, market cap $53.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TLPH ranks #573 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TLPH compare to PLRX and HYFT in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), TLPH carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PLRX (Pliant Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $53.2M) and HYFT (MindWalk Holdings Corp.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $53.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TLPH leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TLPH leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TLPH?

Per TLPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001427925), Talphera Inc. generated $37.8M in revenue (-11.6% YoY), -$14.3M in net income, and -$11.4M in free cash flow against $29.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TLPH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TLPH last traded at $1.01 (-1.94% on volume of 55,868 shares), positioning the stock -11.40% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.14) and 0.00% above its 200-day simple moving average ($1.01). Across its 52-week range of $0.69 to $1.57, TLPH sits at the 36.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.5% ($1.00 to $1.10).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 36/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TLPH — Talphera Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:46:29Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

TLPH carries an RQD Score of 42 out of 100, a letter grade of D-, and the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." Across the five pillars:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 8 / 20. The rating cites ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of -20.46%. For a prospective investor, this indicates the business is currently consuming cash relative to its capital base rather than generating returns, so valuation support must come from future operating change rather than present cash generation.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 9 / 20. The rating references institutional accumulation and options positioning. The source does not itemize holders, so the strength of this signal cannot be independently verified from the provided data.
  • Insider Conviction: 3 / 20. The rating references SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. This is the weakest pillar and suggests limited insider-level conviction in the current setup.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 12 / 20. The rating lists Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 means the stock is expected to move in line with the broad market; the rating treats this as a moderate fit.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 10 / 20. The rating cites Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5. The weak Piotroski reading is the key vulnerability flagged.

Investor implications (analytical, not personalized advice): the upside case depends on a reversal in cash burn and a stabilization of the balance sheet; the valuation tradeoff is that the price of $1.03 sits against a market capitalization of $55.5M and negative cash returns, leaving little current fundamental anchor. Second-order risk is concentrated in the weakest pillars (insider conviction and cash engine).

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Talphera Inc. (TLPH) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry..1B. —: specific products, customers, or revenue model. The reported revenue of — across the SEC financial periods indicates no reported revenue in the source data.

Operating and net losses appear in each reported period, with gross, operating, and net margins all shown as 0% in the market data. ROIC is -35%, and the forensic pillar cites an Altman Z of 2.5 and a Piotroski F of 2/9, with Debt/Equity of 0.5. Cash declined from $8.9M to $5.9M between FY 2024 and FY 2025. —: EPS and debt values for the reported periods.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case: The 0% dividend yield and beta of 1.0 mean the stock trades in line with the market, with a 52-week low of $0.69 leaving the current $1.03 price well above that floor. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 (ROIC -35.0%, FCF yield -20.46%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $0.69 – $1.57 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case: Negative ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -20.46%, and an insider conviction pillar score of 3/20 point to ongoing cash burn without insider support. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

—: upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations. A prospective investor should monitor the cash decline across FY 2024 to FY 2025 as the primary second-order pressure point.

  • Key Question #1: What specific products or clinical programs generate the company's current spending, and what is their stage?
  • Key Question #2: What is the company's runway given cash of $5.9M against FY 2025 free cash flow of -$11.4M?
  • Key Question #3: Which institutions hold the stock, and what are the sizes and direction of their 13F positions?

TLPH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Talphera Inc. (TLPH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TLPH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 82d ago
Talphera Q2 Earnings Call Highlights

Talphera (NASDAQ:TLPH) said it had reached 75% enrollment in its NEPHRO-CRRT registrational study and remains on track to complete enrollment later in 2026, as the company prepares for a potential commercial launch of it

Read Full Source ↗
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TLPH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.01?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TLPH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TLPH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.35 (+31.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The 0% dividend yield and beta of 1.0 mean the stock trades in line with the market, with a 52-week low of $0.69 leaving the current $1

Don't sleep on TLPH's setup in Health Care. The 0% dividend yield and beta of 1.0 mean the stock trades in line with the market, with a 52-week low of $0.69 leaving the current $1.03 price well above that floor.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (36/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Shorting a 5/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $1.03 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

ME MeanReversion_88 Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.81 (-21.4%)
Spot @ $1.03

Negative ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -20.46%, and an insider conviction pillar score of 3/20 point to ongoing cash burn without insider

Fading this rally in TLPH at $1.03. Negative ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -20.46%, and an insider conviction pillar score of 3/20 point to ongoing cash burn without insider support.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $1.03 (52-wk range $0.69–$1.57), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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