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Stock Ratings / Health Care / TLPH / earnings
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Talphera Inc. (TLPH) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±8.5% Move

$1.03 -3.74% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.02

Talphera Inc. (TLPH) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $53.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TLPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Talphera Inc. (NASDAQ: TLPH) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $1.03 (-3.74% 1D, market cap $53.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, TLPH ranks #572 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TLPH compare to PLRX and HYFT in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), TLPH carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PLRX (Pliant Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $53.2M) and HYFT (MindWalk Holdings Corp.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $53.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TLPH leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TLPH leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TLPH?
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Per TLPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001427925), Talphera Inc. generated $37.8M in revenue (-11.6% YoY), -$14.3M in net income, and -$11.4M in free cash flow against $29.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.02 (-0.86%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510036
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (5)SEC (10)Macro (10)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.7% Base Target
$2 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE TLPH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TLPH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TLPH SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 39% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 34.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
44
Grade D$1.08+0% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
41
Grade D$1.08-0.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
39
Grade E$1.07-3.7% Next Q
Current
36
Grade D-$1.03-8.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (44) → D- (36)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TLPH Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TLPH currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.14) and Max Pain ($1.08) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $1.65.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TLPH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TLPH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±8.5% Swing Band

±$0.09 Expected Swing
$1.00 (-8.5%)Spot $1.03$1.12 (+8.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

TLPH Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 36/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (36/100)Model Risk Weight (64/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$37.8M-$14.3M-$11.4M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$42.7M-$13.0M-$12.7M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$47.3M-$18.4M-$17.5M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TLPH)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TLPH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TLPH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.73%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $1.07H $1.07L $1.03C $1.03VOL 83.5K
RES: $1.10SUP: $1.00SMA50: $1.14SMA200: $1.01
$1.55$1.34$1.12$0.91$0.69RES $1.10SUP $1.00$1.032026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TLPH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TLPH Butterfly Map → + Track TLPH →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -11.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TLPH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TLPH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TLPH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TLPH)

Health Care Rank #572 of 1015 ⚔️ PLRX vs TLPH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TLPH vs. PLRX, HYFT, XLO, HRTX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Talphera Inc. (TLPH) ranks #572 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #734 by equity capitalization ($53.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TLPH leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TLPH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. HYFT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 45/100 (D) compared with TLPH at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TLPH ACTIVE
Talphera Inc.
D- 36/100 — — -35.0% -3.74% $53.5M Benchmark Subject
PLRX
Pliant Therapeutics Inc.
E 34/100 — — -35.0% -0.13% $53.2M /plrx-vs-tlph →
HYFT
MindWalk Holdings Corp.
D 45/100 — — — -5.83% $53.8M /hyft-vs-tlph →
XLO
Xilio Therapeutics Inc.
E 25/100 — — -35.0% +3.35% $52.8M /xlo-vs-tlph →
HRTX
Heron Therapeutics Inc.
E 34/100 — 73.3% -35.0% -5.67% $52.7M /hrtx-vs-tlph →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001427925 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Talphera Inc. (TLPH) reported GAAP revenue of $37.8M (-11.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $42.7M , and -20.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$14.3M, operating cash flow of -$11.4M, and free cash flow of -$11.4M (+10.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, TLPH closed FY2025 with $29.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $37.8M -$14.3M -$11.4M -$11.4M $29.7M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $42.7M -$13.0M -$12.7M -$12.7M $18.2M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $47.3M -$18.4M -$17.5M -$17.5M — —

3. TLPH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TLPH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Talphera Inc. (NASDAQ: TLPH) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $1.03 (-3.74% 1D, market cap $53.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, TLPH ranks #572 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TLPH compare to PLRX and HYFT in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), TLPH carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PLRX (Pliant Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $53.2M) and HYFT (MindWalk Holdings Corp.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $53.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TLPH leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TLPH leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TLPH?

Per TLPH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001427925), Talphera Inc. generated $37.8M in revenue (-11.6% YoY), -$14.3M in net income, and -$11.4M in free cash flow against $29.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TLPH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TLPH last traded at $1.03 (-3.74% on volume of 83,509 shares), positioning the stock -9.65% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.14) and +1.98% above its 200-day simple moving average ($1.01). Across its 52-week range of $0.69 to $1.57, TLPH sits at the 38.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.5% ($1.00 to $1.12).

Direct Sub-Reports: TLPH RQD Cockpit TLPH 12M Forecast TLPH Earnings & Move TLPH Dividends & DRIP TLPH Insiders & 13F TLPH Whale Options TLPH Profit Sankey TLPH News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 36/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TLPH — Talphera Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Talphera Inc. (TLPH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 36/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $1.03 (-3.74% 1D, market capitalization $53.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -20.46%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Talphera Inc. (TLPH) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry..1B. —: specific products, customers, or revenue model. The reported revenue of — across the SEC financial periods indicates no reported revenue in the source data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Talphera Inc. (TLPH) reported $37.8M in annual revenue (up from $42.7M in FY2024, -11.6% YoY) and -$14.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($47.3M revenue, -$18.4M net income) through FY2025, TLPH scaled operating cash flow to -$11.4M and free cash flow to -$11.4M, backed by $29.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 36/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -20.46% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.69 – $1.57 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

—: upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations. A prospective investor should monitor the cash decline across FY 2024 to FY 2025 as the primary second-order pressure point.

  • Key Question #1: Can TLPH sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $37.8M and free cash flow of -$11.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TLPH's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TLPH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Talphera Inc. (TLPH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TLPH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 82d ago
Talphera Q2 Earnings Call Highlights

Talphera (NASDAQ:TLPH) said it had reached 75% enrollment in its NEPHRO-CRRT registrational study and remains on track to complete enrollment later in 2026, as the company prepares for a potential commercial launch of it

Read Full Source ↗
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TLPH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.03?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TLPH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TLPH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.35 (+31.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The 0% dividend yield and beta of 1.0 mean the stock trades in line with the market, with a 52-week low of $0.69 leaving the current $1

Don't sleep on TLPH's setup in Health Care. The 0% dividend yield and beta of 1.0 mean the stock trades in line with the market, with a 52-week low of $0.69 leaving the current $1.03 price well above that floor.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (36/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Shorting a 5/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $1.03 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.81 (-21.4%)
Spot @ $1.03

Negative ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -20.46%, and an insider conviction pillar score of 3/20 point to ongoing cash burn without insider

Fading this rally in TLPH at $1.03. Negative ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -20.46%, and an insider conviction pillar score of 3/20 point to ongoing cash burn without insider support.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $1.03 (52-wk range $0.69–$1.57), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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