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Stock Ratings / Energy / SM / insiders
CHRD (67) SSL (72) VIST (64) NE (69) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

SM Energy Company (SM) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$40.38 +2.02% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.62

SM Energy Company (SM) earns a Roarable Rating of A- (Buy) with 82/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 13% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 82/100 (A-) historically ranked in the Top 7% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.9% hit rate) →
ROARABLE A- • BUY Cap $9.60B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SM Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, SM Energy Company (NYSE: SM) is rated A- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 82/100 at a spot price of $40.38 (+2.02% 1D, market cap $9.60B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 18/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, SM ranks #6 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SM compare to CHRD and SSL in the Energy sector?
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Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), SM carries a Roarable A- (82/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.5%. By comparison, CHRD (Chord Energy Corporation) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.7%, cap $8.59B) and SSL (Sasol Ltd.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $11.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SM leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while SM leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SM?
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Per SM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000893538), SM Energy Company generated $3.15B in revenue (+17.2% YoY), $648.0M in net income, and $1.87B in free cash flow against $9.25B in total assets and $2.17B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.62 (+0.60%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 59.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 82/100 (A-) historically ranked in the Top 7% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.9% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • A-
025507510082
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk B+
Cash (15)Whales (17)SEC (14)Macro (18)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+10.8% Base Target
$53 Bull$45 Base$33 Bear
📬 FREE SM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (82/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SM SCORES 82/100 (A-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+18/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 95% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 62.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk14/20 pts (-6 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 6 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
74
Grade B+$38.22+1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
77
Grade B+$38.61+2.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
79
Grade A-$39.56+2.1% Next Q
Current
82
Grade A-$40.38+8.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B+ (74) → A- (82)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 82/100 (A-) score, SM faces multiple-compression risk if 14.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.35) or 200D SMA ($30.66) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($44.74) toward Bear Floor ($33.11).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 82%NO 18%Trade / Inspect Odds →
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

SM Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (SM)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on SM. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SM Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
SM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +28.68%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $39.58H $40.38L $39.58C $40.38VOL 2.61M
RES: $48.72SUP: $35.61SMA50: $37.35SMA200: $30.66
$42.80$37.66$32.51$27.36$22.21RES $48.72SUP $35.61$40.382026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SM Butterfly Map → + Track SM →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
6.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +17.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SM)

Energy Rank #6 of 211 ⚔️ CHRD vs SM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (SM vs. CHRD, SSL, VIST, NE)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, SM Energy Company (SM) ranks #6 by composite RQD confidence (82/100, grade A-) and #59 by equity capitalization ($9.60B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SM leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while SM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and — gross margin. SM currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 82/100 (A-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SM ACTIVE
SM Energy Company
A- 82/100 14.5x — 12.5% +2.02% $9.60B Benchmark Subject
CHRD
Chord Energy Corporation
C+ 67/100 — 80.0% 1.7% +2.19% $8.59B /chrd-vs-sm →
SSL
Sasol Ltd.
B 72/100 32.8x — 9.9% +1.24% $11.15B /ssl-vs-sm →
VIST
Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. American
C 64/100 32.8x — 9.9% -1.58% $7.84B /vist-vs-sm →
NE
Noble Corporation plc A
C+ 69/100 35.0x — 5.4% +3.27% $7.82B /ne-vs-sm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000893538

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), SM Energy Company (SM) reported GAAP revenue of $3.15B (+17.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.69B , and +32.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $648.0M, operating cash flow of $2.01B, and free cash flow of $1.87B (+12.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, SM closed FY2025 with $9.25B in total assets against $2.17B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.42, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.15B $648.0M $2.01B $1.87B $9.25B $2.17B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.69B $770.0M $1.78B $1.66B $8.58B $2.01B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.37B $818.0M $1.57B $1.47B $5.18B $1.21B

3. SM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, SM Energy Company (NYSE: SM) is rated A- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 82/100 at a spot price of $40.38 (+2.02% 1D, market cap $9.60B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 18/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, SM ranks #6 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SM compare to CHRD and SSL in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), SM carries a Roarable A- (82/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.5%. By comparison, CHRD (Chord Energy Corporation) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.7%, cap $8.59B) and SSL (Sasol Ltd.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $11.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SM leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while SM leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SM?

Per SM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000893538), SM Energy Company generated $3.15B in revenue (+17.2% YoY), $648.0M in net income, and $1.87B in free cash flow against $9.25B in total assets and $2.17B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SM last traded at $40.38 (+2.02% on volume of 2,611,706 shares), positioning the stock +8.11% above its 50-day simple moving average ($37.35) and +31.70% above its 200-day simple moving average ($30.66). Across its 52-week range of $17.45 to $41.56, SM sits at the 95.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.9% ($38.00 to $42.76).

Direct Sub-Reports: SM RQD Cockpit SM 12M Forecast SM Earnings & Move SM Dividends & DRIP SM Insiders & 13F SM Whale Options SM Profit Sankey SM News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 82/100 (A-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

SM — SM Energy Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:17:00Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, SM carries an RQD Score of 82 and a letter grade of A-, labeled "Roarable Buy — Superior Risk/Reward." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 (ROIC 12.5%; FCF yield 19.85%); Whale 13F Flow at 17/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 18/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 18/20 (Beta 0.94; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 14/20 (Altman Z 2.42; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 0.39). For a prospective investor, the strongest pillars are insider conviction, macro fit, and institutional flow, which the rating treats as the principal upside drivers. The cash-generation pillar is solid but scored lower than the top three, and the balance-sheet pillar is the lowest-scored, indicating that leverage and forensic quality are the areas where the rating sees the most room for concern. The valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data: the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 14.5 and a forward P/E of 12.2, while the FCF yield of 19.85% is high relative to the market cap. These figures are attributed to the Roarable RQD rating and the market data section and do not constitute a recommendation.

Business

The profile identifies SM Energy Company as a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, Oil & Gas Production industry, with a market capitalization of $9.4B. Specific product lines, customer segments, and revenue-generation mechanics beyond the sector and industry classification are —

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the news wire, six items relate to SM. Two are classified as CATALYST (GREEN): "Why SM Energy (SM) is Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates Again" and "SM Energy (SM) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: Here's Why" (the latter is a headline with a CATALYST label and GREEN signal). One is classified as RISK WATCH (RED): a Seeking Alpha report headlined "SM Energy: Still Plenty Of Upside, With Or Without The Strait Of Hormuz (Rating Downgrade)," which references a rating downgrade. Three are classified as MARKET WIRE (YELLOW): "Surging Earnings Estimates Signal Upside for SM Energy (SM) Stock," "SM Energy Company (SM) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It," and "SM Energy Company (SM) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know." Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply_chain value is NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

1.

  • EPS for all three reported fiscal years is listed as N/A; the source does not explain why per-share earnings are absent from the financials.
  • Gross margin is listed as 0%; the source does not clarify whether this reflects reporting convention or an actual zero.
  • FY 2024 cash is — while FY 2023 cash is N/A; the source does not explain the discontinuity or the reporting basis.
  • Consensus analyst ratings, price targets, and holder data are absent; the source does not show how the Insider Conviction and Whale 13F pillar scores were derived from specific filings.

SM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for SM Energy Company (SM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $40.38?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $49.67 (+23.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Roarable rates SM a Buy with an 82 RQD score, supported by a 19.85% FCF yield and a forward P/E of 12.2.

The street is overcomplicating SM Energy Company (SM). Roarable rates SM a Buy with an 82 RQD score, supported by a 19.85% FCF yield and a forward P/E of 12.2.. With an RQD score of 82/100 (A-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 14/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $43.61.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@RedlineAuditor Shorting a 17/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $40.38 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Energy.

RE RedlineAuditor Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $33.92 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $40.38

Net income fell from $818.0M in FY 2023 to $648.0M in FY 2025 while debt climbed from $1211.6M to $2165.2M.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short SM above $40.38. Net income fell from $818.0M in FY 2023 to $648.0M in FY 2025 while debt climbed from $1211.6M to $2165.2M.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20) and FCF yield (19.85%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $41.56.

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