Stock Ratings / Energy / SM / financials

CHRD (67) SSL (72) VIST (64) NE (69) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

SM Energy Company (SM) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$40.38 +2.02% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.62

SM Energy Company (SM) earns a Roarable Rating of A- (Buy) with 82/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 13% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 82/100 (A-) historically ranked in the Top 7% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.9% hit rate) →

ROARABLE A- • BUY Cap $9.60B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SM Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, SM Energy Company (NYSE: SM) is rated A- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 82/100 at a spot price of $40.38 (+2.02% 1D, market cap $9.60B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 18/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, SM ranks #6 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SM compare to CHRD and SSL in the Energy sector?

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Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), SM carries a Roarable A- (82/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.5%. By comparison, CHRD (Chord Energy Corporation) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.7%, cap $8.59B) and SSL (Sasol Ltd.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $11.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SM leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while SM leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SM?

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Per SM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000893538), SM Energy Company generated $3.15B in revenue (+17.2% YoY), $648.0M in net income, and $1.87B in free cash flow against $9.25B in total assets and $2.17B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.62 (+0.60%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 59.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 82/100 (A-) historically ranked in the Top 7% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.9% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • A-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+10.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (82/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SM SCORES 82/100 (A-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+18/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 95% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 62.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk14/20 pts (-6 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 6 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B+$38.22+1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$38.61+2.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade A-$39.56+2.1% Next Q

Current

Grade A-$40.38+8.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B+ (74) → A- (82)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 82/100 (A-) score, SM faces multiple-compression risk if 14.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.35) or 200D SMA ($30.66) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($44.74) toward Bear Floor ($33.11).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 82%NO 18%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How SM Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$1.87B (59.3% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $2.37B

FY24

Rev $2.69B

FY25

Rev $3.15B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$3.15B	52%	31.7%	$648.0M	$1.87B	12%
FY 2024	$2.69B	52%	40%	$770.0M	$1.66B	13.6%
FY 2023	$2.37B	52%	41.6%	$818.0M	$1.47B	24.9%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SM)

✓Walkthrough of SM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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SM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +28.68%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $39.58H $40.38L $39.58C $40.38VOL 2.61M

RES: $48.72SUP: $35.61SMA50: $37.35SMA200: $30.66

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SM Butterfly Map → + Track SM →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

6.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +17.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SM)

Energy Rank #6 of 211 ⚔️ CHRD vs SM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (SM vs. CHRD, SSL, VIST, NE)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, SM Energy Company (SM) ranks #6 by composite RQD confidence (82/100, grade A-) and #59 by equity capitalization ($9.60B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SM leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while SM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and — gross margin. SM currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 82/100 (A-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SM ACTIVE SM Energy Company	A-	82/100	14.5x	—	12.5%	+2.02%	$9.60B	Benchmark Subject
CHRD Chord Energy Corporation	C+	67/100	—	80.0%	1.7%	+2.19%	$8.59B	/chrd-vs-sm →
SSL Sasol Ltd.	B	72/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+1.24%	$11.15B	/ssl-vs-sm →
VIST Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. American	C	64/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-1.58%	$7.84B	/vist-vs-sm →
NE Noble Corporation plc A	C+	69/100	35.0x	—	5.4%	+3.27%	$7.82B	/ne-vs-sm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000893538

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), SM Energy Company (SM) reported GAAP revenue of $3.15B (+17.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.69B , and +32.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $648.0M, operating cash flow of $2.01B, and free cash flow of $1.87B (+12.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, SM closed FY2025 with $9.25B in total assets against $2.17B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.42, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$3.15B	$648.0M	$2.01B	$1.87B	$9.25B	$2.17B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.69B	$770.0M	$1.78B	$1.66B	$8.58B	$2.01B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.37B	$818.0M	$1.57B	$1.47B	$5.18B	$1.21B

3. SM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does SM compare to CHRD and SSL in the Energy sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SM?

Where is SM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SM last traded at $40.38 (+2.02% on volume of 2,611,706 shares), positioning the stock +8.11% above its 50-day simple moving average ($37.35) and +31.70% above its 200-day simple moving average ($30.66). Across its 52-week range of $17.45 to $41.56, SM sits at the 95.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.9% ($38.00 to $42.76).

SM Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is SM Energy Company (SM)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), SM converted $3.2B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 31.7% operating margin, and $1.9B in free cash flow (59.3% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: SM RQD Cockpit SM 12M Forecast SM Earnings & Move SM Dividends & DRIP SM Insiders & 13F SM Whale Options SM Profit Sankey SM News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 82/100 (A-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

SM — SM Energy Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:17:00Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, SM carries an RQD Score of 82 and a letter grade of A-, labeled "Roarable Buy — Superior Risk/Reward." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 (ROIC 12.5%; FCF yield 19.85%); Whale 13F Flow at 17/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 18/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 18/20 (Beta 0.94; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 14/20 (Altman Z 2.42; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 0.39). For a prospective investor, the strongest pillars are insider conviction, macro fit, and institutional flow, which the rating treats as the principal upside drivers. The cash-generation pillar is solid but scored lower than the top three, and the balance-sheet pillar is the lowest-scored, indicating that leverage and forensic quality are the areas where the rating sees the most room for concern. The valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data: the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 14.5 and a forward P/E of 12.2, while the FCF yield of 19.85% is high relative to the market cap. These figures are attributed to the Roarable RQD rating and the market data section and do not constitute a recommendation.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
$39.58	$9.41B	14.5	12.2	9.7	2.72	0.98%	0.94	$17.45 - $41.56	12.5%

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$3154.0M	$1000.0M	$648.0M	N/A	$1869.1M	$368.0M	$2165.2M
FY 2024	$2690.0M	$1076.0M	$770.0M	N/A	$1662.0M	$0.0M	$2007.0M
FY 2023	$2374.0M	$987.0M	$818.0M	N/A	$1467.2M	N/A	$1211.6M

Per the market data, operating margin is 31.7%, net margin is 20.5%, and gross margin is 0%. ROIC is 12.5%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.42, the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.39. Net income declined from $818.0M (FY 2023) to $770.0M (FY 2024) to $648.0M (FY 2025), while revenue rose across the same periods and debt rose from $1211.6M to $2165.2M.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the news wire, six items relate to SM. Two are classified as CATALYST (GREEN): "Why SM Energy (SM) is Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates Again" and "SM Energy (SM) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: Here's Why" (the latter is a headline with a CATALYST label and GREEN signal). One is classified as RISK WATCH (RED): a Seeking Alpha report headlined "SM Energy: Still Plenty Of Upside, With Or Without The Strait Of Hormuz (Rating Downgrade)," which references a rating downgrade. Three are classified as MARKET WIRE (YELLOW): "Surging Earnings Estimates Signal Upside for SM Energy (SM) Stock," "SM Energy Company (SM) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It," and "SM Energy Company (SM) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know." Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply_chain value is NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

Per the news wire, one item references a rating downgrade and the Strait of Hormuz; the source data does not state the downgrading firm, the new rating, or the specific geopolitical exposure cited.
EPS for all three reported fiscal years is listed as N/A; the source does not explain why per-share earnings are absent from the financials.
Gross margin is listed as 0%; the source does not clarify whether this reflects reporting convention or an actual zero.
FY 2024 cash is $0.0M while FY 2023 cash is N/A; the source does not explain the discontinuity or the reporting basis.
Consensus analyst ratings, price targets, and holder data are absent; the source does not show how the Insider Conviction and Whale 13F pillar scores were derived from specific filings.

SM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for SM Energy Company (SM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SM Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 19h ago

Why SM Energy (SM) is Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates Again

Yahoo Finance report covering SM Energy Company (SM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Seeking Alpha • 22h ago

SM Energy: Still Plenty Of Upside, With Or Without The Strait Of Hormuz (Rating Downgrade)

Seeking Alpha report covering SM Energy Company (SM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Surging Earnings Estimates Signal Upside for SM Energy (SM) Stock

Yahoo Finance report covering SM Energy Company (SM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

SM Energy Company (SM) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It

Yahoo Finance report covering SM Energy Company (SM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

SM Energy Company (SM) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know

Yahoo Finance report covering SM Energy Company (SM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

SM Energy (SM) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: Here's Why

Yahoo Finance report covering SM Energy Company (SM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Is SM Energy (SM) Outperforming Other Oils-Energy Stocks This Year?

Yahoo Finance report covering SM Energy Company (SM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Should Value Investors Buy SM Energy (SM) Stock?

Yahoo Finance report covering SM Energy Company (SM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $40.38?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $46.70 (+18.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is SM (A- • RQD 82/100) a Buy at $39.58?

Welcome to the SM (SM Energy Company) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 82/100 (Roarable Buy — Superior Risk/Reward) in Oil & Gas Production. Bulls point to capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $32.06 (-19.0%)

Spot @ $39.58

Pump the brakes on SM — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on SM, but look at what you are paying: 14.5x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless SM Energy Company expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $46.31 (+17.0%)

Spot @ $39.58

SM cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on SM, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Oil & Gas Production and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $39.58 (52-wk range $17.45 - $41.56), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.