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Why REPL Stock advanced +1.26% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$17.61 +1.26% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.62

Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.67B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is REPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Replimune Group Inc. (NASDAQ: REPL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $17.61 (+1.26% 1D, market cap $1.67B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, REPL ranks #261 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does REPL compare to NVAX and MAZE in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), REPL carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, NVAX (Novavax Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 3.9x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $1.66B) and MAZE (Maze Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NVAX leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while NVAX leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REPL?
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Per REPL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0001737953), Replimune Group Inc. generated $895.8M in revenue (+22.3% YoY), -$313.9M in net income, and -$280.3M in free cash flow against $333.6M in total assets and $47.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.62 (+0.04%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510050
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C-
Cash (6)Whales (17)SEC (10)Macro (14)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
$20 Bull$17 Base$13 Bear
📬 FREE REPL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for REPL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY REPL SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (34% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 96% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 73.9 (OVERBOUGHT (>70))

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
42
Grade D$12.11-5.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
45
Grade D$11.42+14.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
47
Grade D$13.05+34.9% Next Q
Current
50
Grade D$17.61-1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a REPL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While REPL currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($13.69) and Max Pain ($18.49) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.04.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $REPL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “REPL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why REPL Stock advanced +1.26% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) advanced +1.26% to $17.61, trading at 96% of its 52-week range ($1.5 – $18.27). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 96% of its 52-week range ($1.5 – $18.27) with RSI-14 at 73.9 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $17.61 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live REPL Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring REPL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of REPL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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REPL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +481.19%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $17.39H $17.61L $17.39C $17.61VOL 3.85M
RES: $18.36SUP: $11.81SMA50: $13.69SMA200: $9.40
$19.37$14.81$10.24$5.67$1.10RES $18.36SUP $11.81$17.612026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

REPL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 REPL Butterfly Map → + Track REPL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +22.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on REPL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for REPL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for REPL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (REPL)

Health Care Rank #261 of 1015 ⚔️ NVAX vs REPL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (REPL vs. NVAX, MAZE, IMCR, ALVO)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) ranks #261 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #283 by equity capitalization ($1.67B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NVAX leads on earnings valuation at 3.9x trailing P/E, while NVAX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 93.5% gross margin. ALVO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with REPL at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
REPL ACTIVE
Replimune Group Inc.
D 50/100 — — -35.0% +1.26% $1.67B Benchmark Subject
NVAX
Novavax Inc.
D 49/100 3.9x 93.5% 85.0% -3.72% $1.66B /nvax-vs-repl →
MAZE
Maze Therapeutics Inc.
D- 37/100 — — -35.0% -1.41% $1.75B /maze-vs-repl →
IMCR
Immunocore Holdings plc
E 22/100 — 96.0% -35.0% -2.49% $1.57B /imcr-vs-repl →
ALVO
Alvotech
D+ 52/100 — — — -4.91% $1.82B /alvo-vs-repl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-31 • CIK 0001737953 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) reported GAAP revenue of $895.8M (+22.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $732.6M , and +36.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$313.9M, operating cash flow of -$280.3M, and free cash flow of -$280.3M (-45.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, REPL closed FY2025 with $333.6M in total assets against $47.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-03-31 $895.8M -$313.9M -$280.3M -$280.3M $333.6M $47.6M
FY2024 (FY) 2025-03-31 $732.6M -$247.3M -$192.3M -$192.3M $603.6M $46.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2024-03-31 $657.4M -$215.8M -$185.5M -$185.5M — —

3. REPL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is REPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Replimune Group Inc. (NASDAQ: REPL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $17.61 (+1.26% 1D, market cap $1.67B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, REPL ranks #261 in composite RQD confidence.

How does REPL compare to NVAX and MAZE in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), REPL carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, NVAX (Novavax Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 3.9x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $1.66B) and MAZE (Maze Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NVAX leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while NVAX leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REPL?

Per REPL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0001737953), Replimune Group Inc. generated $895.8M in revenue (+22.3% YoY), -$313.9M in net income, and -$280.3M in free cash flow against $333.6M in total assets and $47.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is REPL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

REPL last traded at $17.61 (+1.26% on volume of 3,853,804 shares), positioning the stock +28.63% above its 50-day simple moving average ($13.69) and +87.34% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.40). Across its 52-week range of $1.50 to $18.27, REPL sits at the 96.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 73.9 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($15.41 to $19.81).

Direct Sub-Reports: REPL RQD Cockpit REPL 12M Forecast REPL Earnings & Move REPL Dividends & DRIP REPL Insiders & 13F REPL Whale Options REPL Profit Sankey REPL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 50/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

REPL — Replimune Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-03-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 50/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $17.61 (+1.26% 1D, market capitalization $1.67B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -17.01%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.23x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances). It is a biotechnology company. Reported revenue is — in each listed period, and the company is reporting operating and net losses.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-03-31), Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) reported $895.8M in annual revenue (up from $732.6M in FY2024, +22.3% YoY) and -$313.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($657.4M revenue, -$215.8M net income) through FY2025, REPL scaled operating cash flow to -$280.3M and free cash flow to -$280.3M, backed by $333.6M in total assets against $47.6M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 50/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of -17.01% and institutional whale pillar of 17/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.50 – $18.27 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Supply_chain is NONE, butterfly_links is empty, and proprietary_signals is empty. The source data therefore does not identify upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations. — for any 2nd-order bottleneck analysis.

  • Key Question #1: Can REPL sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $895.8M and free cash flow of -$280.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $47.6M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is REPL's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

REPL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to REPL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

REPL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $17.61?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON REPL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on REPL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $22.19 (+26.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation and options positioning score 17/20 in the RQD framework, the strongest pillar in the rating.

Long REPL at $17.61 targeting $22.19. Institutional accumulation and options positioning score 17/20 in the RQD framework, the strongest pillar in the rating.. Institutional whale score is 17/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $3.17 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 50/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $17.61 and keeping dry powder in case we test $16.38.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $14.79 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $17.61

ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -17.01% show the cash engine scoring 6/20 while FY 2025 free cash flow was -$280.3M.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short REPL above $17.61. ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -17.01% show the cash engine scoring 6/20 while FY 2025 free cash flow was -$280.3M.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20) and FCF yield (-17.01%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $18.27.

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