How profitable is Replimune Group Inc. (REPL)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), REPL converted $895.8M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Health Care / REPL / financials

NVAX (49) MAZE (37) IMCR (22) ALVO (52) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$17.61 +1.26% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.62

Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.67B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on REPL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is REPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Replimune Group Inc. (NASDAQ: REPL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $17.61 (+1.26% 1D, market cap $1.67B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, REPL ranks #262 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does REPL compare to NVAX and MAZE in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), REPL carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, NVAX (Novavax Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 3.9x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $1.66B) and MAZE (Maze Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NVAX leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while NVAX leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REPL?

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Per REPL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0001737953), Replimune Group Inc. generated $895.8M in revenue (+22.3% YoY), -$313.9M in net income, and -$280.3M in free cash flow against $333.6M in total assets and $47.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.62 (+0.04%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for REPL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY REPL SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (34% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 96% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 73.9 (OVERBOUGHT (>70))

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$12.11-5.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$11.42+14.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$13.05+34.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D$17.61-1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a REPL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While REPL currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($13.69) and Max Pain ($18.49) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.04.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $REPL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “REPL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How REPL Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $657.4M

FY24

Rev $732.6M

FY25

Rev $895.8M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$895.8M	52%	-35.7%	-$313.9M	-$280.3M	-45%
FY 2024	$732.6M	52%	-35.7%	-$247.3M	-$192.3M	-45%
FY 2023	$657.4M	52%	-35.7%	-$215.8M	-$185.5M	-35%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring REPL)

✓Walkthrough of REPL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

REPL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +481.19%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $17.39H $17.61L $17.39C $17.61VOL 3.85M

RES: $18.36SUP: $11.81SMA50: $13.69SMA200: $9.40

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

REPL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 REPL Butterfly Map → + Track REPL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on REPL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for REPL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for REPL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (REPL)

Health Care Rank #262 of 1016 ⚔️ NVAX vs REPL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (REPL vs. NVAX, MAZE, IMCR, ALVO)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) ranks #262 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #284 by equity capitalization ($1.67B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NVAX leads on earnings valuation at 3.9x trailing P/E, while NVAX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 93.5% gross margin. ALVO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with REPL at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
REPL ACTIVE Replimune Group Inc.	D	50/100	—	—	-35.0%	+1.26%	$1.67B	Benchmark Subject
NVAX Novavax Inc.	D	49/100	3.9x	93.5%	85.0%	-3.72%	$1.66B	/nvax-vs-repl →
MAZE Maze Therapeutics Inc.	D-	37/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.41%	$1.75B	/maze-vs-repl →
IMCR Immunocore Holdings plc	E	22/100	—	96.0%	-35.0%	-2.49%	$1.57B	/imcr-vs-repl →
ALVO Alvotech	D+	52/100	—	—	—	-4.91%	$1.82B	/alvo-vs-repl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-31 • CIK 0001737953

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) reported GAAP revenue of $895.8M (+22.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $732.6M , and +36.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$313.9M, operating cash flow of -$280.3M, and free cash flow of -$280.3M (-45.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, REPL closed FY2025 with $333.6M in total assets against $47.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-03-31	$895.8M	-$313.9M	-$280.3M	-$280.3M	$333.6M	$47.6M
FY2024 (FY)	2025-03-31	$732.6M	-$247.3M	-$192.3M	-$192.3M	$603.6M	$46.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2024-03-31	$657.4M	-$215.8M	-$185.5M	-$185.5M	—	—

3. REPL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is REPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does REPL compare to NVAX and MAZE in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REPL?

Where is REPL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

REPL last traded at $17.61 (+1.26% on volume of 3,853,804 shares), positioning the stock +28.63% above its 50-day simple moving average ($13.69) and +87.34% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.40). Across its 52-week range of $3.17 to $18.27, REPL sits at the 95.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 73.9 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($15.41 to $19.81).

Direct Sub-Reports: REPL RQD Cockpit REPL 12M Forecast REPL Earnings & Move REPL Dividends & DRIP REPL Insiders & 13F REPL Whale Options REPL Profit Sankey REPL News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 50/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

REPL — Replimune Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:28:18Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, REPL carries an RQD Score of 50, letter grade D, verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20 (ROIC -35%; FCF yield -17.01%); Whale 13F Flow 17/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction 3/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit 14/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet 10/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 3/9; Debt/Equity 0.23). The strongest pillar is institutional positioning, which can support upside sentiment, while the weakest pillars are the cash engine and insider conviction, which point to unfunded losses and limited insider backing. For a prospective investor, the investment case rests on whether institutional accumulation persists despite negative free cash flow and negative ROIC, and the verdict flags underperformance and distribution risk as the base-case warning in this framework.

Business

Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances). Per the company profile, it is a biotechnology company. Reported revenue is $0.0M in each listed period, and per the SEC financials the company is reporting operating and net losses.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, headlines include a Yahoo Finance report on a "141% run" in the stock, StockInvest.us and Simply Wall St forecast pieces, a Yahoo Finance report on the launch of TUDRIQEV, and a Stocktwits report that the stock "clocks worst day in over 3 months" on new FDA documents that leave Wall Street "awaiting another rejection for cancer drug." A Zacks Investment Research piece (flagged GREEN, CATALYST) cites analysts who believe the stock "could rally 26.8%." Risk watch items per the news feed center on the FDA-related headline. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph shows no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply_chain is NONE, butterfly_links is empty, and proprietary_signals is empty. The source data therefore does not identify upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations.

Open Questions

What is the company's product pipeline and regulatory status, and what do the FDA documents referenced in the news feed actually say?
What is the source of funding for the FY 2025 cash burn, given cash of $123.0M against an FCF of $-280.3M?
What are the company's revenue-generating arrangements, if any, given reported revenue of $0.0M?
What are the analyst price targets and ratings, and how do they compare with the current price?
What do the 13F and insider transaction records show in detail, given the pillar scores of 17/20 and 3/20?

REPL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to REPL Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 19h ago

Replimune Group (REPL) Stock Looks Rich After A 141% Run

Yahoo Finance report covering Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockInvest.us • 22h ago

Replimune Group Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy REPL?

StockInvest.us report covering Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Replimune Group (Nasdaq:REPL) - Stock Analysis

Simply Wall St report covering Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Replimune Group (REPL) Launches TUDRIQEV As Its Valuation Story Comes Into Focus

Yahoo Finance report covering Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stocktwits • 1d ago

REPL Stock Clocks Worst Day In Over 3 Months — New FDA Documents Leave Wall Street Awaiting Another Rejection For Cancer Drug

Stocktwits report covering Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Zacks Investment Research • 1d ago

Wall Street Analysts Believe Replimune Group (REPL) Could Rally 26.8%: Here's is How to Trade

Zacks Investment Research report covering Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Replimune Group: A Hold Until TUDRIQEV’s Commercial Potential Becomes Clear (NASDAQ:REPL)

Seeking Alpha report covering Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 1d ago

Cantor Fitzgerald reiterates Overweight on Replimune Group stock

Investing.com report covering Replimune Group Inc. (REPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

REPL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $17.61?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON REPL 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $18.78 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is REPL (D • RQD 50/100) a Buy at $17.39?

Welcome to the REPL (Replimune Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 50/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances). Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $13.56 (-22.0%)

Spot @ $17.39

Pump the brakes on REPL — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on REPL, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Replimune Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $21.74 (+25.0%)

Spot @ $17.39

REPL cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on REPL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $17.39 (52-wk range $1.50 - $18.27), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.