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Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A) (PTON) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$5.30 +3.52% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.32

Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A) (PTON) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ RED ALERT Cap $2.28B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PTON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: PTON) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $5.30 (+3.52% 1D, market cap $2.28B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PTON ranks #722 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PTON compare to CALY and YETI in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Recreational Games/Products/Toys), PTON carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 50.9%, and ROIC of -24.3%. By comparison, CALY (Callaway Golf Company) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 5.6%, cap $2.71B) and YETI (YETI Holdings Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 19.5x, ROIC 23.5%, cap $3.19B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MAT leads on earnings multiple (11.1x) while YETI leads on capital efficiency (23.5% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PTON?
β–Ό

Per PTON's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001639825), Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A) generated $2.49B in revenue (-7.8% YoY), -$118.9M in net income, and $333.0M in free cash flow against $2.16B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.32 (+0.44%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) β€’ 13.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ D-
025507510040
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- Β· Rk D-
Cash (8)Whales (8)SEC (8)Macro (7)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target
$8 Bull$5 Base$4 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE PTON RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PTON)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±7.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY PTON SCORES 40/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+9/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 45% Net Buy β€’ Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 13.4% FCF Margin ($333.0M FCF) & 50.9% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (47.6) create a -13 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
32
Grade E$5.22+4.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
35
Grade E$5.45-2.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
37
Grade E$5.30+0% Next Q
Current
40
Grade D-$5.30-7.4% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (32) β†’ D- (40)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a PTON Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While PTON currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.12) and Max Pain ($5.57) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.32.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PTONβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œPTON Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
1.8% Total Yield
0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
74/100 β€’ REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
0% (100% Reinvested)
Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (5.5% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $17,081

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $307/yr
$10.6K
Yr 1
$11.1K
Yr 2
$11.7K
Yr 3
$12.4K
Yr 4
$13.1K
Yr 5
$13.8K
Yr 6
$14.5K
Yr 7
$15.3K
Yr 8
$16.2K
Yr 9
$17.1K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring PTON)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of PTON's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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PTON // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.11%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $5.28H $5.30L $5.12C $5.30VOL 5.45M
RES: $7.05SUP: $4.44SMA50: $5.12SMA200: $5.21
$6.89$6.22$5.56$4.89$4.22RES $7.05SUP $4.44$5.302026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PTON Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -7.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PTON today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PTON. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PTON today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PTON)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #722 of 1009 βš”οΈ CALY vs PTON Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (PTON vs. CALY, YETI, MAT, GOLF)

Industry: Recreational Games/Products/Toys (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A) (PTON) ranks #722 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #398 by equity capitalization ($2.28B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MAT leads on earnings valuation at 11.1x trailing P/E, while YETI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 23.5% ROIC and 57.4% gross margin. YETI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with PTON at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
PTON ACTIVE
Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A)
D- 40/100 β€” 50.9% -24.3% +3.52% $2.28B Benchmark Subject
CALY
Callaway Golf Company
D+ 52/100 β€” 42.1% 5.6% +6.20% $2.71B /caly-vs-pton β†’
YETI
YETI Holdings Inc.
B 74/100 19.5x 57.4% 23.5% +4.03% $3.19B /yeti-vs-pton β†’
MAT
Mattel Inc.
C+ 67/100 11.1x 48.7% 13.0% +0.71% $4.41B /mat-vs-pton β†’
GOLF
Acushnet Holdings Corp.
D+ 57/100 26.5x 47.7% 13.8% +4.88% $4.98B /golf-vs-pton β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-06-30 β€’ CIK 0001639825 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A) (PTON) reported GAAP revenue of $2.49B (-7.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.70B , and -11.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$118.9M, operating cash flow of $333.0M, and free cash flow of $333.0M (+603.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, PTON closed FY2025 with $2.16B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-06-30 $2.49B -$118.9M $333.0M $333.0M $2.16B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-06-30 $2.70B -$551.9M -$66.1M -$66.1M $2.11B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-06-30 $2.80B -$1.26B -$387.6M -$387.6M β€” β€”

3. PTON Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PTON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: PTON) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $5.30 (+3.52% 1D, market cap $2.28B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PTON ranks #722 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PTON compare to CALY and YETI in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Recreational Games/Products/Toys), PTON carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 50.9%, and ROIC of -24.3%. By comparison, CALY (Callaway Golf Company) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 5.6%, cap $2.71B) and YETI (YETI Holdings Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 19.5x, ROIC 23.5%, cap $3.19B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MAT leads on earnings multiple (11.1x) while YETI leads on capital efficiency (23.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PTON?

Per PTON's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001639825), Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A) generated $2.49B in revenue (-7.8% YoY), -$118.9M in net income, and $333.0M in free cash flow against $2.16B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PTON trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PTON last traded at $5.30 (+3.52% on volume of 7,639,218 shares), positioning the stock +3.52% above its 50-day simple moving average ($5.12) and +1.73% above its 200-day simple moving average ($5.21). Across its 52-week range of $3.65 to $7.92, PTON sits at the 38.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±7.7% ($4.89 to $5.71).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 40/100 (D-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

PTON β€” Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-06-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A) (PTON) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 40/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $5.30 (+3.52% 1D, market capitalization $2.28B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -24.3%, gross margin of 50.9%, operating margin of -1.5%, and free cash flow yield of 14.15%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A) (PTON) is a NASDAQ-listed company classified under Consumer Discretionary, within the Recreational Games/Products/Toys industry. It operates with a market capitalization of $2.4B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-06-30), Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A) (PTON) reported $2.49B in annual revenue (up from $2.70B in FY2024, -7.8% YoY) and -$118.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.80B revenue, -$1.26B net income) through FY2025, PTON scaled operating cash flow to $333.0M and free cash flow to $333.0M, backed by $2.16B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D- β€’ RQD 40/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 14.15% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.65 – $7.92 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -1.5% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

β€” The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no upstream or downstream dependencies, no sector-correlation links, and no proprietary signals. Second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can PTON sustain or expand its -1.5% operating margin and -24.3% ROIC against Recreational Games/Products/Toys peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.49B and free cash flow of $333.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is PTON's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

PTON Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A) (PTON) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to PTON Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PTON Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $5.30?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PTON 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on PTON:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Growth & Tech Investor πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.71 (+31.1%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

FY 2025 free cash flow of $333.0M and cash of $1.18B compare favorably against negative FCF in the two prior periods, and the FCF yie

Don't sleep on PTON's setup in Consumer Discretionary. FY 2025 free cash flow of $333.0M and cash of $1.18B compare favorably against negative FCF in the two prior periods, and the FCF yield is 14.15%.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (40/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

RetailWhale_TX πŸ‚ BULL

@SkepticalCFA Shorting a 8/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $5.12 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.30 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $5.12

ROIC is -24.3%, the Altman Z-Score is 0.2, and net losses persist in FY 2025 at -$118.9M.

I respect the product at Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A), but the stock at $5.12 is a different story. ROIC is -24.3%, the Altman Z-Score is 0.2, and net losses persist in FY 2025 at -$118.9M.. FCF yield is 14.15% and RQD sits at 40/100 (D-) β€” why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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