Should I buy, hold, or sell MAT stock right now?

Mattel Inc. (MAT) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold — HOLD) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. Solid 48.7% gross margin (13% return on capital), mixed timing at 11x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is MAT's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

MAT's 12-month base price target is $16.16 (range $12.6 to $23.6), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MAT

GOLF (57) YETI (74) CALY (52) PTON (40) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Mattel Inc. (MAT) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$15.53 +0.71% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.52

Mattel Inc. (MAT) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $4.41B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MAT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MAT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Mattel Inc. (NASDAQ: MAT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $15.53 (+0.71% 1D, market cap $4.41B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MAT ranks #201 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MAT compare to GOLF and YETI in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Recreational Games/Products/Toys), MAT carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.1x, gross margin of 48.7%, and ROIC of 13.0%. By comparison, GOLF (Acushnet Holdings Corp.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 26.5x, ROIC 13.8%, cap $4.98B) and YETI (YETI Holdings Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 19.5x, ROIC 23.5%, cap $3.19B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MAT leads on earnings multiple (11.1x) while YETI leads on capital efficiency (23.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MAT?

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Per MAT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000063276), Mattel Inc. generated $5.35B in revenue (-0.6% YoY), $398.0M in net income, and $352.6M in free cash flow against $6.64B in total assets and $2.33B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.52 (-0.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 6.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MAT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MAT SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.06 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B+$16.65+1.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$16.95-9.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$15.28+1.6% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$15.53+1.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B+ (75) → C+ (67)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MAT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, MAT faces multiple-compression risk if 11.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 46.2% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($15.02) or 200D SMA ($15.38) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($16.16) toward Bear Floor ($12.60).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MAT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MAT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

45.830 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.06>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE31% OF RANGE

L: $12$15.53H: $22

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (48.7% gross margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 14 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on MAT

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (70)

13.0% ROIC with 48.7% gross margin and 7.97% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (75)

Altman-Z 3.06 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (63)

27/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 11/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MAT

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MAT Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MAT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.58%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $15.48H $15.53L $15.42C $15.53VOL 4.57M

RES: $17.67SUP: $11.30SMA50: $15.02SMA200: $15.38

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MAT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MAT Butterfly Map → + Track MAT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

0.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MAT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MAT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MAT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MAT)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #201 of 1009 ⚔️ GOLF vs MAT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MAT vs. GOLF, YETI, CALY, PTON)

Industry: Recreational Games/Products/Toys (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mattel Inc. (MAT) ranks #201 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #291 by equity capitalization ($4.41B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MAT leads on earnings valuation at 11.1x trailing P/E, while YETI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 23.5% ROIC and 57.4% gross margin. YETI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with MAT at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MAT ACTIVE Mattel Inc.	C+	67/100	11.1x	48.7%	13.0%	+0.71%	$4.41B	Benchmark Subject
GOLF Acushnet Holdings Corp.	D+	57/100	26.5x	47.7%	13.8%	+4.88%	$4.98B	/golf-vs-mat →
YETI YETI Holdings Inc.	B	74/100	19.5x	57.4%	23.5%	+4.03%	$3.19B	/yeti-vs-mat →
CALY Callaway Golf Company	D+	52/100	—	42.1%	5.6%	+6.20%	$2.71B	/caly-vs-mat →
PTON Peloton Interactive Inc. (Class A)	D-	40/100	—	50.9%	-24.3%	+3.52%	$2.28B	/pton-vs-mat →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000063276 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mattel Inc. (MAT) reported GAAP revenue of $5.35B (-0.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.38B , and -1.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $398.0M, operating cash flow of $593.3M, and free cash flow of $352.6M (-36.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, MAT closed FY2025 with $6.64B in total assets against $2.33B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.06, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$5.35B	$398.0M	$593.3M	$352.6M	$6.64B	$2.33B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$5.38B	$542.0M	$800.6M	$558.5M	$6.54B	$2.33B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$5.44B	$214.0M	$869.8M	$624.9M	$6.53B	$1.53B

3. MAT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MAT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MAT compare to GOLF and YETI in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MAT?

Where is MAT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MAT last traded at $15.53 (+0.71% on volume of 4,511,498 shares), positioning the stock +3.40% above its 50-day simple moving average ($15.02) and +0.98% above its 200-day simple moving average ($15.38). Across its 52-week range of $12.40 to $22.48, MAT sits at the 31.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.7% ($14.64 to $16.42).

Direct Sub-Reports: MAT RQD Cockpit MAT 12M Forecast MAT Earnings & Move MAT Dividends & DRIP MAT Insiders & 13F MAT Whale Options MAT Profit Sankey MAT News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 67/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MAT — Mattel Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Mattel Inc. (MAT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 67/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $15.53 (+0.71% 1D, market capitalization $4.41B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.0%, gross margin of 48.7%, operating margin of 10.2%, and free cash flow yield of 7.97%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.14x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.06, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.04x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Mattel Inc. (MAT) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Recreational Games/Products/Toys industry. It reports annual revenue in the $5.3–5.4B range across the three reported periods.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Mattel Inc. (MAT) reported $5.35B in annual revenue (up from $5.38B in FY2024, -0.6% YoY) and $398.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($5.44B revenue, $214.0M net income) through FY2025, MAT scaled operating cash flow to $593.3M and free cash flow to $352.6M, backed by $6.64B in total assets against $2.33B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 67/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $12.40 – $22.48 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 11.1x trailing P/E and 7.3x EV/EBITDA against 10.2% operating margins and a 1.14x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no upstream or downstream dependencies, no sector correlations, and no proprietary signals for MAT. An investor should note that the sale-pressure headlines are the only sector-relevant context provided, and their second-order effects on suppliers, retailers, or peer toy companies cannot be assessed from the supplied data.

Key Question #1: Can MAT sustain or expand its 10.2% operating margin and 13.0% ROIC against Recreational Games/Products/Toys peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $5.35B and free cash flow of $352.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.33B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is MAT's 10.3x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.14x)?

MAT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Mattel Inc. (MAT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MAT Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 22h ago

Mattel (MAT): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q2 Earnings?

Yahoo Finance report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Motley Fool • 1d ago

How to Buy Mattel Stock (MAT) in 2026

The Motley Fool report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stocktwits • 1d ago

MAT Stock Eyes Best Week In 16 Months On Mattel Buyout Buzz — Retail Traders See Room Above $20

Stocktwits report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Reuters • 1d ago

Mattel investor Ariel pushes for sale as turnaround stalls

Reuters report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST CNBC • 1d ago

Barbie maker Mattel faces investor pressure to consider a sale amid stagnating growth

CNBC report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Investing.com • 1d ago

Why did Mattel stock surge 5% today?

Investing.com report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE WSJ • 1d ago

Barbie-Maker Mattel Faces Growing Shareholder Pressure to Consider a Sale

WSJ report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance Australia • 1d ago

Mattel, Inc. (MAT) stock price, news, quote and history

Yahoo Finance Australia report covering Mattel Inc. (MAT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MAT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $15.53?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MAT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $19.58 (+27.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores 18/20 and the 7.97% FCF yield at a 10.3 forward P/E gives a cash-generation case while sale pressure is in pl

Insider conviction scores 18/20 and the 7.97% FCF yield at a 10.3 forward P/E gives a cash-generation case while sale pressure is in play.. When you look under the hood at MAT, Fundamental Cash Engine is 14/20 with 48.7% gross margins and 13.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (9/20) has been quietly accumulating below $22.48. My 12M target is $19.58.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — MAT's 15/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $12.03 (-22.0%)

Spot @ $15.42

Net income fell from $542.0M to $398.0M and free cash flow from $558.5M to $352.6M while the stock carries a 0% dividend and Beta of 1.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on MAT: Net income fell from $542.0M to $398.0M and free cash flow from $558.5M to $352.6M while the stock carries a 0% dividend and Beta of 1.14.. At 11.1x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Recreational Games/Products/Toys triggers a 12-15% air pocket.