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Stock Ratings / Industrials / ONTO / insiders
RRX (58) DRS (63) PNR (69) LII (59) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$201.57 -9.16% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $197.86

Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) β†’
ROARABLE C- β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $10.89B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ONTO Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ONTO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, Onto Innovation Inc. (NYSE: ONTO) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $201.57 (-9.16% 1D, market cap $10.89B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, ONTO ranks #138 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ONTO compare to RRX and DRS in the Industrials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), ONTO carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 49.7%, and ROIC of 5.6%. By comparison, RRX (Regal Rexnord Corporation) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 39.0x, ROIC 4.9%, cap $10.90B) and DRS (Leonardo DRS Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 38.1x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $10.58B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LII leads on earnings multiple (14.8x) while LII leads on capital efficiency (34.9% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONTO?
β–Ό

Per ONTO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0000704532), Onto Innovation Inc. generated $1.01B in revenue (+1.8% YoY), $136.8K in net income, and $299.8M in free cash flow against $2.37B in total assets and $120.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $197.86 (-1.84%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 29.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 53.1% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C-
025507510059
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ Β· Rk C+
Cash (14)Whales (6)SEC (18)Macro (9)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target
$406 Bull$202 Base$158 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE ONTO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ONTO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±10.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY ONTO SCORES 59/100 (C-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 26.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 7/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 29.8% FCF Margin ($299.8M FCF) & 49.7% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
67
Grade B-$263.55-16.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$219.62-2.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
62
Grade C+$214.17-5.9% Next Q
Current
59
Grade C-$201.57+0.2% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: B- (67) β†’ C- (59)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ONTO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, ONTO faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 47.2% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($261.92) or 200D SMA ($261.07) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($202.48) toward Bear Floor ($157.93).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ONTOβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œONTO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 2, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
SEC FORM 4 Γ— 13F HEDGE FUNDS Γ— CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

ONTO Smart-Money Thermometer: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales β†’
β–² Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)β–Ό Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (ONTO)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on ONTO. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ONTO Tape Review)

  • βœ“Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • βœ“Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • βœ“Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) β†’$100K Arena
ONTO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -32.71%πŸ›‘οΈ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $223.7H $223.7L $201.6C $201.6VOL 824.5K
RES: $329.2SUP: $185.3SMA50: $261.9SMA200: $261.1
$401.8$338.2$274.5$210.9$147.2RES $329.2SUP $185.3$201.62026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ONTO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ ONTO Butterfly Map β†’ + Track ONTO β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ONTO today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ONTO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ONTO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ONTO)

Industrials Rank #138 of 485 βš”οΈ RRX vs ONTO Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (ONTO vs. RRX, DRS, PNR, LII)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) ranks #138 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #96 by equity capitalization ($10.89B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LII leads on earnings valuation at 14.8x trailing P/E, while LII leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 34.9% ROIC and 33.4% gross margin. PNR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with ONTO at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ONTO ACTIVE
Onto Innovation Inc.
C- 59/100 β€” 49.7% 5.6% -9.16% $10.89B Benchmark Subject
RRX
Regal Rexnord Corporation
D+ 58/100 39.0x 37.4% 4.9% -3.90% $10.90B /rrx-vs-onto β†’
DRS
Leonardo DRS Inc.
C 63/100 38.1x 23.8% 9.2% -4.94% $10.58B /drs-vs-onto β†’
PNR
Pentair plc. Ordinary Share
C+ 69/100 16.1x 40.5% 12.5% +0.64% $10.51B /pnr-vs-onto β†’
LII
Lennox International Inc.
C- 59/100 14.8x 33.4% 34.9% -1.16% $11.91B /lii-vs-onto β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2026-01-03 β€’ CIK 0000704532

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03), Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) reported GAAP revenue of $1.01B (+1.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $987.3M , and +23.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $136.8K, operating cash flow of $328.3M, and free cash flow of $299.8M (+40.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, ONTO closed FY2025 with $2.37B in total assets against $120.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 26.00, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-01-03 $1.01B $136.8K $328.3M $299.8M $2.37B $120.2M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-28 $987.3M $201.7K $245.7M $213.8M $2.12B $86.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-30 $815.9M $121.2K $172.0M $135.3M $5.99B $1.40B

3. ONTO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ONTO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Onto Innovation Inc. (NYSE: ONTO) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $201.57 (-9.16% 1D, market cap $10.89B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, ONTO ranks #138 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ONTO compare to RRX and DRS in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), ONTO carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 49.7%, and ROIC of 5.6%. By comparison, RRX (Regal Rexnord Corporation) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 39.0x, ROIC 4.9%, cap $10.90B) and DRS (Leonardo DRS Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 38.1x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $10.58B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LII leads on earnings multiple (14.8x) while LII leads on capital efficiency (34.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONTO?

Per ONTO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0000704532), Onto Innovation Inc. generated $1.01B in revenue (+1.8% YoY), $136.8K in net income, and $299.8M in free cash flow against $2.37B in total assets and $120.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ONTO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ONTO last traded at $201.57 (-9.16% on volume of 1,085,275 shares), positioning the stock -23.04% below its 50-day simple moving average ($261.92) and -22.79% below its 200-day simple moving average ($261.07). Across its 52-week range of $118.97 to $386.46, ONTO sits at the 30.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±10.4% ($180.61 to $222.53).

ONTO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

Are ONTO insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies ONTO leadership and institutional positioning as: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING.

Direct Sub-Reports: ONTO RQD Cockpit ONTO 12M Forecast ONTO Earnings & Move ONTO Dividends & DRIP ONTO Insiders & 13F ONTO Whale Options ONTO Profit Sankey ONTO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 59/100 (C-) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ONTO β€” Onto Innovation Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:16:08Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ONTO scores 59 out of 100, a letter grade of C-, with a verdict label of "Roarable Hold β€” Cautious Neutral." The five pillars break down as follows:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 14 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 5.6% and an FCF yield of 2.75%. For a prospective investor, this indicates the business generates cash, but the return on invested capital and free-cash-flow yield are modest relative to the current share price.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 6 / 20. This pillar captures institutional accumulation and options positioning. The low score signals that the source data does not show strong institutional accumulation momentum.
  • Insider Conviction: 12 / 20. This pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The mid-range score indicates no decisive insider-buying signal in either direction.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 9 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.1 and the score reflects sector sensitivity. For a prospective investor, this suggests the stock is somewhat more volatile than the broad market and is exposed to sector-level swings.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 18 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this is the strongest pillar, citing Altman Z of 26, Piotroski F of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.05. For a prospective investor, the balance sheet is a clear strength and limits solvency risk.

Taken together, the rating points to a stock whose balance sheet is a clear strength, whose cash generation and institutional/insider signals are only moderate, and whose sector-sensitive valuation carries tradeoffs. Upside drivers would need to come from improving returns on capital and renewed institutional interest. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the EV/EBITDA of 67.8 against a 2.75% FCF yield. This is educational analysis, not personalized financial advice.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$1005.3M$132.9M$0.1MN/A$299.8M$346.1M$120.2M
FY 2024$987.3M$187.1M$0.2MN/A$213.8M$212.9M$86.0M
FY 2023$815.9M$116.1M$0.1MN/A$135.3MN/A$1401.4M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $815.9M in FY 2023 to $1005.3M in FY 2025, while reported net income remained near breakeven across all three periods. Per the market data, net margin is 0% and ROIC is 5.6%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 26 and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, with Debt/Equity of 0.05. Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 cash of $346.1M exceeds debt of $120.2M.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the news wire, six items reference ONTO: a Yahoo Finance Singapore market-wire item, a Seeking Alpha piece titled "Onto Innovation: Fall Buyers Rewarded With 2027 Growth" (marked as a catalyst), a Trefis item on a six-day winning streak with a 17% gain (catalyst), a Yahoo Finance item noting the stock declined while the market improved, a Yahoo! Finance Canada market-wire item, and a Yahoo Finance valuation piece asking whether the stock's valuation makes sense. The news wire assigns green-light tags to the Seeking Alpha and Trefis items and yellow-light tags to the remaining four. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What are the reported EPS and P/E (TTM) figures, given that the source lists them as unavailable and reports net income near $0.1M–$0.2M?
  • What drives the gap between the 67.8 EV/EBITDA and the 2.75% FCF yield?
  • Who are the institutional and insider holders, and what is their recent activity?
  • What is the consensus analyst rating and price target?
  • What customers, end markets, and supply-chain dependencies sit behind the reported revenue?

ONTO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to ONTO Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ONTO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $201.57?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ONTO 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ONTO:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $239.64 (+8.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ONTO (C- β€’ RQD 59/100) a Buy at $221.89?

Welcome to the ONTO (Onto Innovation Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 59/100 (Roarable Hold β€” Cautious Neutral) in Industrial Machinery/Components. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $181.95 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $221.89

Pump the brakes on ONTO β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ONTO, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 49.7% gross margins. Unless Onto Innovation Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $279.58 (+26.0%)
Spot @ $221.89

ONTO cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ONTO, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Industrial Machinery/Components and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $221.89 (52-wk range $118.97 - $386.46), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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