What is NGVC's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for NGVC.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / NGVC / options

VLGEA (73) DNUT (26) ARKO (48) GO (57) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$29.37 +2.37% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.44

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $661.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NGVC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NYSE: NGVC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $29.37 (+2.37% 1D, market cap $661.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, NGVC ranks #40 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NGVC compare to VLGEA and DNUT in the Consumer Staples sector?

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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), NGVC carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.1x, gross margin of 29.9%, and ROIC of 24.9%. By comparison, VLGEA (Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $633.3M) and DNUT (Krispy Kreme Inc.) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.4%, cap $568.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VLGEA leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NGVC?

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Per NGVC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001547459), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. generated $1.33B in revenue (+7.2% YoY), $46.4M in net income, and $24.1M in free cash flow against $668.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.44 (+0.24%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 1.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NGVC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NGVC SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.52 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$30.26-2.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$29.58+2.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$30.44-3.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C$29.37+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (71) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NGVC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, NGVC faces multiple-compression risk if 14.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 27.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($29.42) or 200D SMA ($28.61) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($30.03) toward Bear Floor ($23.42).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NGVC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NGVC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±7.9%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (NGVC)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for NGVC.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating NGVC & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on NGVC
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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NGVC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.01%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL

2026-11-03O $28.48H $29.37L $28.48C $29.37VOL 79.8K

RES: $32.31SUP: $26.79SMA50: $29.42SMA200: $28.61

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NGVC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NGVC Butterfly Map → + Track NGVC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

5.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NGVC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NGVC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NGVC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NGVC)

Consumer Staples Rank #40 of 146 ⚔️ VLGEA vs NGVC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (NGVC vs. VLGEA, DNUT, ARKO, GO)

Industry: Food Chains (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) ranks #40 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #78 by equity capitalization ($661.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VLGEA leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while NGVC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. VLGEA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with NGVC at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NGVC ACTIVE Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc.	C	63/100	14.1x	29.9%	24.9%	+2.37%	$661.2M	Benchmark Subject
VLGEA Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)	B	73/100	11.2x	28.6%	14.0%	+0.84%	$633.3M	/vlgea-vs-ngvc →
DNUT Krispy Kreme Inc.	E	26/100	—	—	-24.4%	+3.51%	$568.2M	/dnut-vs-ngvc →
ARKO ARKO Corp.	D	48/100	18.6x	—	9.6%	+1.58%	$425.2M	/arko-vs-ngvc →
GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.	D+	57/100	—	30.3%	-12.6%	+2.32%	$1.28B	/go-vs-ngvc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001547459

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.33B (+7.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.24B , and +16.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $46.4M, operating cash flow of $55.3M, and free cash flow of $24.1M (-33.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, NGVC closed FY2025 with $668.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.52, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$1.33B	$46.4M	$55.3M	$24.1M	$668.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$1.24B	$33.9M	$73.8M	$36.2M	$648.9M	$8.9M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$1.14B	$23.2M	$64.6M	$64.6M	—	—

3. NGVC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NGVC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does NGVC compare to VLGEA and DNUT in the Consumer Staples sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NGVC?

Where is NGVC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NGVC last traded at $29.37 (+2.37% on volume of 80,583 shares), positioning the stock -0.17% below its 50-day simple moving average ($29.42) and +2.66% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.61). Across its 52-week range of $23.47 to $34.59, NGVC sits at the 53.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.9% ($27.05 to $31.69).

Direct Sub-Reports: NGVC RQD Cockpit NGVC 12M Forecast NGVC Earnings & Move NGVC Dividends & DRIP NGVC Insiders & 13F NGVC Whale Options NGVC Profit Sankey NGVC News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NGVC — Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-09-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 63/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $29.37 (+2.37% 1D, market capitalization $661.2M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 24.9%, gross margin of 29.9%, operating margin of 4.7%, and free cash flow yield of 3.67%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (17/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.52, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Staples sector and Food Chains industry. — for further business description detail.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) reported $1.33B in annual revenue (up from $1.24B in FY2024, +7.2% YoY) and $46.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.14B revenue, $23.2M net income) through FY2025, NGVC scaled operating cash flow to $55.3M and free cash flow to $24.1M, backed by $668.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 63/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $23.47 – $34.59 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 14.1x trailing P/E and 7.2x EV/EBITDA against 4.7% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Food Chains (Consumer Staples), NGVC carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 29.9%.

Key Question #1: Can NGVC sustain or expand its 4.7% operating margin and 24.9% ROIC against Food Chains peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.33B and free cash flow of $24.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is NGVC's 13.1x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Staples capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NGVC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NGVC Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockInvest.us • 20h ago

Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy NGVC?

StockInvest.us report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 23h ago

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. Estimates – NYSE:NGVC

TradingView report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Should You Investigate Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NYSE:NGVC) At US$28.48?

Simply Wall St report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NYSE:NGVC) Share Price Crosses Below 200-Day Moving Average - Time to Sell?

MarketBeat report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE https://www.siam.in/ • 1d ago

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC) Edges Higher as Shares Test Resistance - Demand Zone

https://www.siam.in/ report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH MarketBeat • 1d ago

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NYSE:NGVC) Downgraded by Wall Street Zen to "Hold"

MarketBeat report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) - What Are Investment Firms Saying About This Stock?

MarketBeat report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟢 CATALYST MarketBeat • 1d ago

Wall Street Zen Upgrades Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NYSE:NGVC) to "Buy"

MarketBeat report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NGVC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $29.37?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NGVC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $36.44 (+27.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Insider Conviction (17/20) and a strong forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 3.52, Piotroski F 8/9) support a constructive view on the stoc

Insider Conviction (17/20) and a strong forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 3.52, Piotroski F 8/9) support a constructive view on the stock's core financial health.. When you look under the hood at NGVC, Fundamental Cash Engine is 12/20 with 29.9% gross margins and 24.9% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (6/20) has been quietly accumulating below $34.59. My 12M target is $36.44.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — NGVC's 16/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $24.67 (-14.0%)

Spot @ $28.69

Weak whale 13F flow (6/20) and a fall in free cash flow from $64.6M to $24.1M across FY 2023–FY 2025 undercut confidence in cash genera

Weak whale 13F flow (6/20) and a fall in free cash flow from $64.6M to $24.1M across FY 2023–FY 2025 undercut confidence in cash generation.. Look at the math on NGVC: paying 14.1x trailing P/E for 24.9% ROIC and 4.7% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Food Chains demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $25.25 before getting long.