Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
As of 2026-11-03, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NYSE: NGVC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $29.37 (+2.37% 1D, market cap $661.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, NGVC ranks #40 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), NGVC carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.1x, gross margin of 29.9%, and ROIC of 24.9%. By comparison, VLGEA (Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $633.3M) and DNUT (Krispy Kreme Inc.) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.4%, cap $568.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VLGEA leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).
Per NGVC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001547459), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. generated $1.33B in revenue (+7.2% YoY), $46.4M in net income, and $24.1M in free cash flow against $668.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)
Altman Z-Score 3.52 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)
Even with a 63/100 (C) score, NGVC faces multiple-compression risk if 14.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 27.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($29.42) or 200D SMA ($28.61) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($30.03) toward Bear Floor ($23.42).
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) surged +2.37% to $29.37, trading at 53% of its 52-week range ($23.47 – $34.59). Solid 30% profit margin (25% return on capital), mixed timing at 14x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
StockInvest.us report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.siam.in/ report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Natural Grocers fits a Peter Lynch GARP screen: 17.8% EPS growth, 0.78 PEG, low debt, 19.9% ROE, but slower future growth and thin margins warrant research.
Natural Grocers®, the leading family-operated organic and natural grocery retailer in the U.S., invites customers to its annual Nevada Day event, October 30 through November 1 at its four Nevada stores. {N}power® members
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +7.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NGVC today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NGVC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) ranks #40 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #78 by equity capitalization ($661.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VLGEA leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while NGVC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. VLGEA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with NGVC at 63/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NGVC
ACTIVE
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. | C | 63/100 | 14.1x | 29.9% | 24.9% | +2.37% | $661.2M | Benchmark Subject |
| VLGEA Village Super Market Inc. (Class A) | B | 73/100 | 11.2x | 28.6% | 14.0% | +0.84% | $633.3M | /vlgea-vs-ngvc → |
| DNUT Krispy Kreme Inc. | E | 26/100 | — | — | -24.4% | +3.51% | $568.2M | /dnut-vs-ngvc → |
| ARKO ARKO Corp. | D | 48/100 | 18.6x | — | 9.6% | +1.58% | $425.2M | /arko-vs-ngvc → |
| GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. | D+ | 57/100 | — | 30.3% | -12.6% | +2.32% | $1.28B | /go-vs-ngvc → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.33B (+7.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.24B , and +16.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $46.4M, operating cash flow of $55.3M, and free cash flow of $24.1M (-33.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, NGVC closed FY2025 with $668.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.52, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-09-30 | $1.33B | $46.4M | $55.3M | $24.1M | $668.6M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-09-30 | $1.24B | $33.9M | $73.8M | $36.2M | $648.9M | $8.9M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-09-30 | $1.14B | $23.2M | $64.6M | $64.6M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-03, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NYSE: NGVC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $29.37 (+2.37% 1D, market cap $661.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, NGVC ranks #40 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), NGVC carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.1x, gross margin of 29.9%, and ROIC of 24.9%. By comparison, VLGEA (Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $633.3M) and DNUT (Krispy Kreme Inc.) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.4%, cap $568.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VLGEA leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).
Per NGVC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001547459), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. generated $1.33B in revenue (+7.2% YoY), $46.4M in net income, and $24.1M in free cash flow against $668.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
NGVC last traded at $29.37 (+2.37% on volume of 80,583 shares), positioning the stock -0.17% below its 50-day simple moving average ($29.42) and +2.66% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.61). Across its 52-week range of $23.47 to $34.59, NGVC sits at the 53.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.9% ($27.05 to $31.69).
The Roarable RQD Score is 59, graded C- and labeled "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral," .
Net implication for a prospective investor: the rating balances a strong balance sheet and insider signal against weak institutional flow and a moderate macro fit. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the market data (P/E TTM 14.1, forward P/E 13.1), where the multiple is not stretched but the FCF yield is modest. The rating does not constitute personalized advice.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Staples sector and Food Chains industry. — for further business description detail.
Revenue, operating income, and net income rose across the three reported fiscal years, and FY 2025 net income of $46.4M reflects this trend. Per the market data, gross margin is 29.9%, operating margin 4.7%, and net margin 3.5%, with ROIC of 24.9%. The Altman Z-Score is 3.52 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, with Debt/Equity of 0.5. FCF declined from $64.6M in FY 2023 to $24.1M in FY 2025 which is a point to monitor against the stronger earnings trend.
Operating in Food Chains (Consumer Staples), NGVC carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 29.9%.
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StockInvest.us report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.siam.in/ report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Insider Conviction (17/20) and a strong forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 3.52, Piotroski F 8/9) support a constructive view on the stock's core financial health.. When you look under the hood at NGVC, Fundamental Cash Engine is 12/20 with 29.9% gross margins and 24.9% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (6/20) has been quietly accumulating below $34.59. My 12M target is $36.44.
Both sides have a point here — NGVC's 16/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.
Weak whale 13F flow (6/20) and a fall in free cash flow from $64.6M to $24.1M across FY 2023–FY 2025 undercut confidence in cash generation.. Look at the math on NGVC: paying 14.1x trailing P/E for 24.9% ROIC and 4.7% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Food Chains demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $25.25 before getting long.
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