ROARABLE
FREE $100K
Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / NGVC / earnings
VLGEA (73) DNUT (26) ARKO (48) GO (57) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.9% Move

$29.37 +2.37% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.44

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $661.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NGVC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NGVC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NYSE: NGVC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $29.37 (+2.37% 1D, market cap $661.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, NGVC ranks #41 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NGVC compare to VLGEA and DNUT in the Consumer Staples sector?
▼

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), NGVC carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.1x, gross margin of 29.9%, and ROIC of 24.9%. By comparison, VLGEA (Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $633.3M) and DNUT (Krispy Kreme Inc.) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.4%, cap $568.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VLGEA leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NGVC?
▼

Per NGVC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001547459), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. generated $1.33B in revenue (+7.2% YoY), $46.4M in net income, and $24.1M in free cash flow against $668.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.44 (+0.24%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 1.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510063
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-
Cash (12)Whales (6)SEC (16)Macro (12)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target
$36 Bull$30 Base$23 Bear
📬 FREE NGVC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NGVC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NGVC SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.52 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
71
Grade B$30.26-2.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
68
Grade B-$29.58+2.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$30.44-3.5% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$29.37+0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (71) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NGVC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, NGVC faces multiple-compression risk if 14.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 27.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($29.42) or 200D SMA ($28.61) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($30.03) toward Bear Floor ($23.42).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NGVC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NGVC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 29, 2026 (~55 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.9% Swing Band

±$2.32 Expected Swing
$27.05 (-7.9%)Spot $29.37$31.69 (+7.9%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

NGVC Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 63/100

Trailing EPS: $2.02 • YoY Revenue Growth: 7.2%

Model Bullish Setup (63/100)Model Risk Weight (37/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-09-30$1.33B$46.4M$24.1M29.9%
FY 20242024-09-30$1.24B$33.9M$36.2M29.4%
FY 20232023-09-30$1.14B$23.2M$64.6M29.9%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating NGVC & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on NGVC
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
NGVC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.01%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-11-03O $28.48H $29.37L $28.48C $29.37VOL 79.8K
RES: $32.31SUP: $26.79SMA50: $29.42SMA200: $28.61
$35.25$32.52$29.79$27.06$24.33RES $32.31SUP $26.79$29.372026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NGVC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NGVC Butterfly Map → + Track NGVC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
5.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NGVC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NGVC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NGVC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NGVC)

Consumer Staples Rank #41 of 147 ⚔️ VLGEA vs NGVC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (NGVC vs. VLGEA, DNUT, ARKO, GO)

Industry: Food Chains (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) ranks #41 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #79 by equity capitalization ($661.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VLGEA leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while NGVC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. VLGEA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with NGVC at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NGVC ACTIVE
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc.
C 63/100 14.1x 29.9% 24.9% +2.37% $661.2M Benchmark Subject
VLGEA
Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)
B 73/100 11.2x 28.6% 14.0% +0.84% $633.3M /vlgea-vs-ngvc →
DNUT
Krispy Kreme Inc.
E 26/100 — — -24.4% +3.51% $568.2M /dnut-vs-ngvc →
ARKO
ARKO Corp.
D 48/100 18.6x — 9.6% +1.58% $425.2M /arko-vs-ngvc →
GO
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
D+ 57/100 — 30.3% -12.6% +2.32% $1.28B /go-vs-ngvc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001547459 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.33B (+7.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.24B , and +16.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $46.4M, operating cash flow of $55.3M, and free cash flow of $24.1M (-33.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, NGVC closed FY2025 with $668.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.52, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $1.33B $46.4M $55.3M $24.1M $668.6M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-30 $1.24B $33.9M $73.8M $36.2M $648.9M $8.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $1.14B $23.2M $64.6M $64.6M — —

3. NGVC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NGVC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NYSE: NGVC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $29.37 (+2.37% 1D, market cap $661.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, NGVC ranks #41 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NGVC compare to VLGEA and DNUT in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Food Chains), NGVC carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.1x, gross margin of 29.9%, and ROIC of 24.9%. By comparison, VLGEA (Village Super Market Inc. (Class A)) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 11.2x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $633.3M) and DNUT (Krispy Kreme Inc.) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.4%, cap $568.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VLGEA leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while NGVC leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NGVC?

Per NGVC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001547459), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. generated $1.33B in revenue (+7.2% YoY), $46.4M in net income, and $24.1M in free cash flow against $668.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NGVC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NGVC last traded at $29.37 (+2.37% on volume of 80,583 shares), positioning the stock -0.17% below its 50-day simple moving average ($29.42) and +2.66% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.61). Across its 52-week range of $23.47 to $34.59, NGVC sits at the 53.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.9% ($27.05 to $31.69).

Direct Sub-Reports: NGVC RQD Cockpit NGVC 12M Forecast NGVC Earnings & Move NGVC Dividends & DRIP NGVC Insiders & 13F NGVC Whale Options NGVC Profit Sankey NGVC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NGVC — Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-09-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 63/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $29.37 (+2.37% 1D, market capitalization $661.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 24.9%, gross margin of 29.9%, operating margin of 4.7%, and free cash flow yield of 3.67%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.52, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Staples sector and Food Chains industry. — for further business description detail.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) reported $1.33B in annual revenue (up from $1.24B in FY2024, +7.2% YoY) and $46.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.14B revenue, $23.2M net income) through FY2025, NGVC scaled operating cash flow to $55.3M and free cash flow to $24.1M, backed by $668.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 63/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $23.47 – $34.59 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 14.1x trailing P/E and 7.2x EV/EBITDA against 4.7% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Food Chains (Consumer Staples), NGVC carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 29.9%.

  • Key Question #1: Can NGVC sustain or expand its 4.7% operating margin and 24.9% ROIC against Food Chains peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.33B and free cash flow of $24.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NGVC's 13.1x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Staples capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NGVC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. (NGVC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NGVC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NGVC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $29.37?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NGVC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NGVC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $36.44 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider Conviction (17/20) and a strong forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 3.52, Piotroski F 8/9) support a constructive view on the stoc

Insider Conviction (17/20) and a strong forensic balance sheet (Altman Z 3.52, Piotroski F 8/9) support a constructive view on the stock's core financial health.. When you look under the hood at NGVC, Fundamental Cash Engine is 12/20 with 29.9% gross margins and 24.9% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (6/20) has been quietly accumulating below $34.59. My 12M target is $36.44.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — NGVC's 16/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $24.67 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $28.69

Weak whale 13F flow (6/20) and a fall in free cash flow from $64.6M to $24.1M across FY 2023–FY 2025 undercut confidence in cash genera

Weak whale 13F flow (6/20) and a fall in free cash flow from $64.6M to $24.1M across FY 2023–FY 2025 undercut confidence in cash generation.. Look at the math on NGVC: paying 14.1x trailing P/E for 24.9% ROIC and 4.7% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Food Chains demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $25.25 before getting long.

LIVE TAPE SPY $752.10 -1.80% QQQ $681.09 -3.60% DIA $519.34 -1.08% IWM $279.14 -1.68% NVDA $202.06 -1.26% AAPL $338.32 -1.83% MSFT $507.12 -2.83% TSLA $403.82 +1.00% PLTR $178.34 -3.13% SOFI $16.60 -0.95% IBIT $43.35 -5.42% GLD $361.65 -3.59%