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Stock Ratings / Industrials / MWA / earnings
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MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5% Move

$22.79 +0.04% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.75

MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.56B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MWA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MWA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (NYSE: MWA) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $22.79 (+0.04% 1D, market cap $3.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, MWA ranks #113 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MWA compare to CXT and CSTM in the Industrials sector?
▼

Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), MWA carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of 36.1%, and ROIC of 14.0%. By comparison, CXT (Crane NXT Co.) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 23.9x, ROIC 19.1%, cap $3.47B) and CSTM (Constellium SE (France)) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 11.8x, ROIC 28.7%, cap $3.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CSTM leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while XE leads on capital efficiency (38.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MWA?
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Per MWA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001350593), MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS generated $1.43B in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $191.7M in net income, and $219.3M in free cash flow against $1.85B in total assets and $450.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.75 (-0.18%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 15.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510062
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D+
Cash (13)Whales (9)SEC (15)Macro (8)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target
$33 Bull$23 Base$18 Bear
📬 FREE MWA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MWA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MWA SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.22 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (59.7) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
54
Grade C-$21.87-0.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
57
Grade C$21.75+3.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
59
Grade C$22.46+1.5% Next Q
Current
62
Grade C$22.79+0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (54) → C (62)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MWA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, MWA faces multiple-compression risk if 18.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 33.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($22.61) or 200D SMA ($25.85) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($23.20) toward Bear Floor ($18.10).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MWA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MWA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 29, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5% Swing Band

±$1.14 Expected Swing
$21.65 (-5%)Spot $22.79$23.93 (+5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MWA Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 62/100

Trailing EPS: $1.23 • YoY Revenue Growth: 8.7%

Model Bullish Setup (62/100)Model Risk Weight (38/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-09-30$1.43B$191.7M$219.3M36.1%
FY 20242024-09-30$1.31B$115.9M$238.8M34.9%
FY 20232023-09-30$1.28B$85.5M$109.0M36.1%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MWA & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MWA
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
MWA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -16.31%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $22.13H $22.79L $22.13C $22.79VOL 1.82M
RES: $29.66SUP: $19.56SMA50: $22.61SMA200: $25.85
$29.48$27.16$24.83$22.50$20.18RES $29.66SUP $19.56$22.792026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MWA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MWA Butterfly Map → + Track MWA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
11.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MWA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MWA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MWA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MWA)

Industrials Rank #113 of 485 ⚔️ CXT vs MWA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (MWA vs. CXT, CSTM, XE, SMR)

Industry: Metal Fabrications (47 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) ranks #113 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #171 by equity capitalization ($3.56B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CSTM leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while XE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 38.5% ROIC and — gross margin. CXT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with MWA at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MWA ACTIVE
MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS
C 62/100 18.6x 36.1% 14.0% +0.04% $3.56B Benchmark Subject
CXT
Crane NXT Co.
B 73/100 23.9x 42.5% 19.1% -2.69% $3.47B /cxt-vs-mwa →
CSTM
Constellium SE (France)
D+ 56/100 11.8x — 28.7% -3.79% $3.23B /cstm-vs-mwa →
XE
X-Energy Inc.
D+ 56/100 32.8x — 38.5% -6.58% $4.75B /xe-vs-mwa →
SMR
NuScale Power Corporation
E 26/100 — 36.3% -35.0% -5.07% $2.54B /smr-vs-mwa →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001350593

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) reported GAAP revenue of $1.43B (+8.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.31B , and +12.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $191.7M, operating cash flow of $219.3M, and free cash flow of $219.3M (-8.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MWA closed FY2025 with $1.85B in total assets against $450.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.22, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $1.43B $191.7M $219.3M $219.3M $1.85B $450.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-30 $1.31B $115.9M $238.8M $238.8M $1.62B $448.7M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $1.28B $85.5M $109.0M $109.0M — —

3. MWA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MWA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (NYSE: MWA) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $22.79 (+0.04% 1D, market cap $3.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, MWA ranks #113 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MWA compare to CXT and CSTM in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), MWA carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of 36.1%, and ROIC of 14.0%. By comparison, CXT (Crane NXT Co.) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 23.9x, ROIC 19.1%, cap $3.47B) and CSTM (Constellium SE (France)) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 11.8x, ROIC 28.7%, cap $3.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CSTM leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while XE leads on capital efficiency (38.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MWA?

Per MWA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001350593), MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS generated $1.43B in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $191.7M in net income, and $219.3M in free cash flow against $1.85B in total assets and $450.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MWA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MWA last traded at $22.79 (+0.04% on volume of 1,144,532 shares), positioning the stock +0.80% above its 50-day simple moving average ($22.61) and -11.84% below its 200-day simple moving average ($25.85). Across its 52-week range of $20.90 to $31.00, MWA sits at the 18.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.0% ($21.65 to $23.93).

MWA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is MWA's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 29, 2026.

How much is MWA stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±5% event move for MWA, spanning a range between $21.65 and $23.93.

Direct Sub-Reports: MWA RQD Cockpit MWA 12M Forecast MWA Earnings & Move MWA Dividends & DRIP MWA Insiders & 13F MWA Whale Options MWA Profit Sankey MWA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 62/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MWA — MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:23:14Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MWA scores 62 out of 100, earning a letter grade of C and the verdict label "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars break down as follows:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 14% and FCF yield is 6.17%. This pillar suggests the business generates a reasonable return on capital and meaningful free cash flow relative to its price, though it is not scored at the top of the range.
  • Whale / 13F Flow (9 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, institutional accumulation and options positioning score modestly. For a prospective investor, this indicates limited evidence of strong institutional conviction in the source data.
  • Insider Conviction (17 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow is the strongest pillar. This is a relative positive signal, though the source data does not itemize the underlying transactions.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.0 and sector sensitivity scores low. A prospective investor should recognize that the stock's performance may track broader market and sector cycles rather than offering insulation.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (15 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 4.22, Piotroski F is 9/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.44. These are the most supportive forensic readings in the source data.

Taken together, the investor implications are balanced. Upside drivers include the cash-generation profile, the strong forensic balance sheet, and the insider-flow pillar. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the market data: trailing P/E of 18.6 and forward P/E of 17.3 sit relative to the stated EV/EBITDA of 15.4, and the price of 22.78 sits near the lower portion of the stated 52-week range of $20.9 - $31. Weaker pillars (whale flow and macro fit) indicate that conviction and cyclical exposure are the main considerations.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
22.78$3.56B18.617.315.41.231.18%1.0$20.9 - $3114%

Business

MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector and Metal Fabrications industry, per the profile section. Not available in source data for detailed product lines, customer segments, or revenue-generation mechanics beyond the sector and industry classification.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$1429.7M$260.6M$191.7MN/A$219.3MN/A$450.9M
FY 2024$1314.7M$181.7M$115.9MN/A$238.8MN/A$448.7M
FY 2023$1275.7M$127.4M$85.5MN/A$109.0MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $1275.7M in FY 2023 to $1429.7M in FY 2025, and net income rose from $85.5M to $191.7M over the same span. Per the market data, gross margin is 36.1%, operating margin 18.2%, and net margin 13.4%, with ROIC at 14%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 4.22 and the Piotroski F-Score is 9/9, both supportive readings, and Debt/Equity is 0.44. FY 2025 free cash flow of $219.3M was below FY 2024's $238.8M, a point worth noting in the trend.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts section:

  • GREEN / CATALYST: A TradingView report indicates a dividend increase of 14.3% and a $300 Million addition to the buyback authorization.
  • RED / RISK WATCH: An Investing.com report indicates the stock fell on a CFO transition announcement.
  • YELLOW / MARKET WIRE: Multiple items cover implied volatility rising in MWA options, a ChartMill article on dividend quality, a Yahoo Finance earnings-growth discussion, and a MarketBeat report of an Oppenheimer price target trim.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as "NONE," with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What is the cash balance, and how does it reconcile with the reported FY 2025 debt of $450.9M?
  • What drove the decline in FY 2025 free cash flow relative to FY 2024?
  • What are the specific terms and timing of the CFO transition referenced in the news wire?
  • What insider and institutional transactions make up the RQD insider and whale-flow pillars?
  • What is the EPS for each reported fiscal year, given that EPS is recorded as N/A in the financials?

MWA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MWA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MWA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $22.79?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MWA 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MWA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $24.60 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MWA (C • RQD 62/100) a Buy at $22.78?

Welcome to the MWA (MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 62/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Metal Fabrications. Bulls point to capital efficiency (14.0% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $18.45 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $22.78

Pump the brakes on MWA — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MWA, but look at what you are paying: 18.6x trailing P/E with 36.1% gross margins. Unless MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $26.65 (+17.0%)
Spot @ $22.78

MWA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MWA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Metal Fabrications and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $22.78 (52-wk range $20.90 - $31.00), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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