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MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$22.79 +0.04% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.75

MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.56B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MWA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MWA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (NYSE: MWA) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $22.79 (+0.04% 1D, market cap $3.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, MWA ranks #106 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MWA compare to CXT and CSTM in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), MWA carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of 36.1%, and ROIC of 14.0%. By comparison, CXT (Crane NXT Co.) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 23.9x, ROIC 19.1%, cap $3.37B) and CSTM (Constellium SE (France)) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 11.8x, ROIC 28.7%, cap $3.11B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CSTM leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while XE leads on capital efficiency (38.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MWA?
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Per MWA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001350593), MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS generated $1.43B in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $191.7M in net income, and $219.3M in free cash flow against $1.85B in total assets and $450.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.75 (-0.18%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 15.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510061
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D+
Cash (13)Whales (8)SEC (15)Macro (8)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.4% Base Target
$33 Bull$23 Base$18 Bear
📬 FREE MWA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MWA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MWA SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.22 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (59.9) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
53
Grade C-$21.73+1.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
56
Grade C$21.99+2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
58
Grade C$22.44+1.6% Next Q
Current
61
Grade C-$22.79+0.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (53) → C- (61)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MWA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, MWA faces multiple-compression risk if 18.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 33.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($22.56) or 200D SMA ($25.83) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($23.10) toward Bear Floor ($18.02).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MWA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MWA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 61%NO 39%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
59.930 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
4.22>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
9 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE19% OF RANGE
L: $21$22.79H: $31
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (36.1% gross margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on MWA

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (65)

14.0% ROIC with 36.1% gross margin and 6.17% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (75)

Altman-Z 4.22 and Piotroski 9/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (55)

25/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MWA
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MWA Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MWA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -16.31%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $22.78H $22.79L $22.78C $22.79VOL 1.14M
RES: $29.67SUP: $19.50SMA50: $22.56SMA200: $25.83
$29.48$27.16$24.83$22.50$20.18RES $29.67SUP $19.50$22.792026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MWA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MWA Butterfly Map → + Track MWA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
11.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MWA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MWA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MWA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MWA)

Industrials Rank #106 of 486 ⚔️ CXT vs MWA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (MWA vs. CXT, CSTM, XE, SMR)

Industry: Metal Fabrications (47 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) ranks #106 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #172 by equity capitalization ($3.56B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CSTM leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while XE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 38.5% ROIC and — gross margin. CXT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with MWA at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MWA ACTIVE
MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS
C- 61/100 18.6x 36.1% 14.0% +0.04% $3.56B Benchmark Subject
CXT
Crane NXT Co.
B 72/100 23.9x 42.5% 19.1% -2.69% $3.37B /cxt-vs-mwa →
CSTM
Constellium SE (France)
D+ 55/100 11.8x — 28.7% -3.79% $3.11B /cstm-vs-mwa →
XE
X-Energy Inc.
D+ 56/100 32.8x — 38.5% -6.58% $4.44B /xe-vs-mwa →
SMR
NuScale Power Corporation
E 26/100 — 36.3% -35.0% -5.07% $2.42B /smr-vs-mwa →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001350593 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) reported GAAP revenue of $1.43B (+8.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.31B , and +12.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $191.7M, operating cash flow of $219.3M, and free cash flow of $219.3M (-8.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MWA closed FY2025 with $1.85B in total assets against $450.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.22, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $1.43B $191.7M $219.3M $219.3M $1.85B $450.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-30 $1.31B $115.9M $238.8M $238.8M $1.62B $448.7M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $1.28B $85.5M $109.0M $109.0M — —

3. MWA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MWA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (NYSE: MWA) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $22.79 (+0.04% 1D, market cap $3.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, MWA ranks #106 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MWA compare to CXT and CSTM in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), MWA carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of 36.1%, and ROIC of 14.0%. By comparison, CXT (Crane NXT Co.) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 23.9x, ROIC 19.1%, cap $3.37B) and CSTM (Constellium SE (France)) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 11.8x, ROIC 28.7%, cap $3.11B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CSTM leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while XE leads on capital efficiency (38.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MWA?

Per MWA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001350593), MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS generated $1.43B in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $191.7M in net income, and $219.3M in free cash flow against $1.85B in total assets and $450.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MWA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MWA last traded at $22.79 (+0.04% on volume of 1,144,532 shares), positioning the stock +1.02% above its 50-day simple moving average ($22.56) and -11.77% below its 200-day simple moving average ($25.83). Across its 52-week range of $20.90 to $31.00, MWA sits at the 18.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.9% ($21.67 to $23.91).

Direct Sub-Reports: MWA RQD Cockpit MWA 12M Forecast MWA Earnings & Move MWA Dividends & DRIP MWA Insiders & 13F MWA Whale Options MWA Profit Sankey MWA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 61/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MWA — MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-09-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 61/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $22.79 (+0.04% 1D, market capitalization $3.56B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 14.0%, gross margin of 36.1%, operating margin of 18.2%, and free cash flow yield of 6.17%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.22, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.44x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Industrials sector and Metal Fabrications industry. — for detailed product lines, customer segments, or revenue-generation mechanics beyond the sector and industry classification.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) reported $1.43B in annual revenue (up from $1.31B in FY2024, +8.7% YoY) and $191.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.28B revenue, $85.5M net income) through FY2025, MWA scaled operating cash flow to $219.3M and free cash flow to $219.3M, backed by $1.85B in total assets against $450.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 61/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $20.90 – $31.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 18.6x trailing P/E and 15.4x EV/EBITDA against 18.2% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Metal Fabrications (Industrials), MWA carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 36.1%.

  • Key Question #1: Can MWA sustain or expand its 18.2% operating margin and 14.0% ROIC against Metal Fabrications peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.43B and free cash flow of $219.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $450.9M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MWA's 17.3x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MWA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MWA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MWA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $22.79?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MWA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MWA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $26.44 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Strong forensic balance sheet (Piotroski 9/9, Altman Z 4.22) combined with a 14% ROIC and a 14.3% dividend increase plus $300M buyback

Picked up a starter position in MWA in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $22.79. Strong forensic balance sheet (Piotroski 9/9, Altman Z 4.22) combined with a 14% ROIC and a 14.3% dividend increase plus $300M buyback addition.. Trading inside a $20.90–$31.00 52-week range with 6.17% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Metal Fabrications multiples expand this quarter.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@MultipleCompression Shorting a 8/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $22.79 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Industrials.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $18.23 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $22.79

Low whale/13F flow score (9/20) and macro-regime fit score (8/20) with beta of 1.0, alongside a CFO transition and a decline in FY 2025

Low whale/13F flow score (9/20) and macro-regime fit score (8/20) with beta of 1.0, alongside a CFO transition and a decline in FY 2025 free cash flow versus FY 2024.. Look at the math on MWA: paying 18.6x trailing P/E for 14.0% ROIC and 18.2% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Metal Fabrications demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $20.06 before getting long.

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