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Kodiak AI Inc. (KDK) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$1.12 -8.20% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.10

Kodiak AI Inc. (KDK) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $244.8M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is KDK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Kodiak AI Inc. (NASDAQ: KDK) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $1.12 (-8.20% 1D, market cap $244.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, KDK ranks #461 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does KDK compare to DMRC and TRVG in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (EDP Services), KDK carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, DMRC (Digimarc Corporation) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $238.8M) and TRVG (trivago N.V.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $253.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, KDK leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while SMRT leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KDK?
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Per KDK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001853138), Kodiak AI Inc. generated $67.0M in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $159.4M in total assets and $29.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.10 (-1.67%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 10.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
025507510042
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (10)Whales (3)SEC (13)Macro (7)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.1% Base Target
$12 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE KDK RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for KDK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY KDK SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 10.2% FCF Margin ($6.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
50
Grade C-$1.70-28.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
47
Grade D$1.22-8.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
45
Grade D$1.12+0% Next Q
Current
42
Grade D-$1.12-7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (50) → D- (42)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a KDK Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While KDK currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.45) and Max Pain ($1.18) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $11.92.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $KDK• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “KDK Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 42%NO 58%Trade / Inspect Odds →
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How KDK Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$6.9M (10.2% FCF Margin)
Revenue$67.0MGross Profit $34.8M (52%)Cost of Sales $32.1MOp Profit $0 (0%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $34.8MNet Profit$0 (0%)Tax/Other $0

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow
FY25
Rev $67.0M
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$67.0M52%0%$0$015%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring KDK)

  • ✓Walkthrough of KDK's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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KDK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -86.79%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $1.28H $1.28L $1.12C $1.12VOL 5.51M
RES: $3.25SUP: $0.64SMA50: $2.45SMA200: $5.90
$9.72$7.35$4.97$2.60$0.22RES $3.25SUP $0.64$1.122026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

KDK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 KDK Butterfly Map → + Track KDK →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on KDK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for KDK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for KDK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (KDK)

Technology Rank #461 of 715 ⚔️ DMRC vs KDK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (KDK vs. DMRC, TRVG, SMRT, GLOO)

Industry: EDP Services (163 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Kodiak AI Inc. (KDK) ranks #461 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #461 by equity capitalization ($244.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KDK leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while SMRT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and 32.7% gross margin. DMRC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 54/100 (D+) compared with KDK at 42/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
KDK ACTIVE
Kodiak AI Inc.
D- 42/100 — — — -8.20% $244.8M Benchmark Subject
DMRC
Digimarc Corporation
D+ 54/100 — — — -0.91% $238.8M /dmrc-vs-kdk →
TRVG
trivago N.V.
D 45/100 — — — +1.39% $253.5M /trvg-vs-kdk →
SMRT
SmartRent Inc. (Class A)
E 30/100 — 32.7% -35.0% +2.22% $258.7M /smrt-vs-kdk →
GLOO
Gloo Holdings Inc. (Class A)
E 28/100 — — -35.0% -2.05% $268.2M /gloo-vs-kdk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001853138 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Kodiak AI Inc. (KDK) reported GAAP revenue of $67.0M , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, KDK closed FY2025 with $159.4M in total assets against $29.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: N/A).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $67.0M $0 — — $159.4M $29.9M

3. KDK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is KDK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Kodiak AI Inc. (NASDAQ: KDK) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $1.12 (-8.20% 1D, market cap $244.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, KDK ranks #461 in composite RQD confidence.

How does KDK compare to DMRC and TRVG in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (EDP Services), KDK carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, DMRC (Digimarc Corporation) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $238.8M) and TRVG (trivago N.V.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $253.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, KDK leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while SMRT leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KDK?

Per KDK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001853138), Kodiak AI Inc. generated $67.0M in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $159.4M in total assets and $29.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is KDK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

KDK last traded at $1.12 (-8.20% on volume of 3,881,437 shares), positioning the stock -54.29% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.45) and -81.02% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.90). Across its 52-week range of $0.96 to $11.35, KDK sits at the 1.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.6 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $1.26).

Direct Sub-Reports: KDK RQD Cockpit KDK 12M Forecast KDK Earnings & Move KDK Dividends & DRIP KDK Insiders & 13F KDK Whale Options KDK Profit Sankey KDK News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 42/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

KDK — Kodiak AI Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Kodiak AI Inc. (KDK) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 42/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $1.12 (-8.20% 1D, market capitalization $244.8M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of N/A, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Kodiak AI Inc. (KDK) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Technology sector and the EDP Services industry..3B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Kodiak AI Inc. (KDK) reported $67.0M in annual revenue and $0 in GAAP net income. Operating cash flow reached $0 and free cash flow totaled $0, backed by $159.4M in total assets against $29.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 42/100): Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.96 – $11.35 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream suppliers, downstream customers, and cross-sector dependencies are therefore — Sector classification (Technology / EDP Services) is the only sector context provided.

  • Key Question #1: Can KDK sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against EDP Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $67.0M and free cash flow of $0, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $29.9M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is KDK's equity valuation to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

KDK Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Kodiak AI Inc. (KDK) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to KDK Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

KDK Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.12?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON KDK 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on KDK:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.55 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The balance sheet carries a 13/20 forensic score with cash of $50.8M exceeding debt of $29.9M, and a Stoneridge partnership catalyst ha

The balance sheet carries a 13/20 forensic score with cash of $50.8M exceeding debt of $29.9M, and a Stoneridge partnership catalyst has been announced.. When you look under the hood at KDK, Fundamental Cash Engine is 10/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 0.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (3/20) has been quietly accumulating below $11.35. My 12M target is $1.55.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@RedlineAuditor Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in EDP Services. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.94 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $1.22

The RQD rating is 44/D with zero reported revenue, zero ROIC, and institutional flow at 4/20, while the price sits near its 52-week low

Careful chasing KDK at $1.22. The RQD rating is 44/D with zero reported revenue, zero ROIC, and institutional flow at 4/20, while the price sits near its 52-week low.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $0.94 on multiple compression.

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