BigBear.ai Inc. (BBAI) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Per the Roarable RQD rating, BBAI scores 28 out of 100, a letter grade of E, with the verdict "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The score is built from five pillars, each weighted out of 20. The fundamental cash engine pillar scores 3/20, reflecting ROIC of -27.5% and an FCF yield of -3.3%; for a prospective investor, this is the largest drag, indicating the business is not currently generating returns on capital or free cash flow. The whale 13F flow pillar scores 9/20, described as institutional accumulation and options positioning, a moderate reading that does not offset weak fundamentals. The insider conviction pillar scores 6/20, based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, signaling limited insider confidence signals. The macro regime fit pillar scores 5/20, with a beta of 1.2 and sector sensitivity, meaning the stock tends to move more than the broad market. The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 5/20, citing an Altman Z of 0.92, a Piotroski F of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.15. Taken together, the upside drivers are limited to the institutional and positioning signals, while the valuation tradeoff is that a forward P/E of 23 is being paid for a business reporting negative operating and net margins. Investors evaluating the stock today face a high-risk profile where the rating frames the forensic and cash-generation concerns as dominant.

BigBear.ai Inc. is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Technology sector, operating in the Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry, per the company profile. The source data does not describe its specific products, customers, or revenue model. Per the SEC financials, the company reported revenue of $127.7M for FY 2025 and $158.2M for FY 2024. Gross margin is reported at 22.3%, while operating and net margins are both reported at -60%.

Per the SEC financials, revenue declined from $158.2M in FY 2024 to $127.7M in FY 2025 while operating losses widened from $-133.4M to $-213.9M. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is -27.5%, and the Altman Z of 0.92 and Piotroski F of 4/9 indicate forensic weakness. Debt/Equity is reported at 0.15, and reported debt fell from $135.4M to $90.5M between FY 2024 and FY 2025 while cash rose from $50.1M to $87.1M.

Per the recent news wire, six items are tagged for BBAI: four are labeled RISK WATCH and two are labeled CATALYST. Risk-watch items include a Yahoo Finance report titled "BigBear.ai (BBAI) Stock Could Be Fully Priced On Current Sales," a TradingView piece on the stock being heavily shorted, a Yahoo Finance item on whether the company will report negative earnings next week, and a TradingView discussion of a discount to industry. Catalyst-tagged items include a Motley Fool report on the stock rising as much as 11.7% in a single session and a Motley Fool market-today piece on shares gaining on $225 Million contract awards. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

• What specific products and customers generate the revenue decline from $158.2M to $127.7M?
• What is the trailing P/E and EV/EBITDA, which are not reported in the source data?
• What is the composition of the $225 Million contract awards referenced in the news wire, and over what period are they recognized?
• What drove the reported change in cash and debt between FY 2024 and FY 2025?
• What are the consensus analyst rating and price targets, which are absent from the analyst data?