How profitable is BigBear.ai Inc. (BBAI)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), BBAI converted $127.7M of revenue into a 22.3% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Technology / BBAI / financials

GTM (52) RDVT (68) ALKT (31) PD (63) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

BigBear.ai Inc. (BBAI) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$2.58 -0.77% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.57

BigBear.ai Inc. (BBAI) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $1.25B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BBAI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, BigBear.ai Inc. (NYSE: BBAI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $2.58 (-0.77% 1D, market cap $1.25B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, BBAI ranks #618 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BBAI compare to GTM and RDVT in the Technology sector?

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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), BBAI carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 22.3%, and ROIC of -27.5%. By comparison, GTM (ZoomInfo Technologies Inc) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 10.5x, ROIC 6.7%, cap $1.27B) and RDVT (Red Violet Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 98.2x, ROIC 16.1%, cap $1.28B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PD leads on earnings multiple (7.9x) while RDVT leads on capital efficiency (16.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BBAI?

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Per BBAI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001836981), BigBear.ai Inc. generated $127.7M in revenue (-19.3% YoY), -$294.0M in net income, and -$42.5M in free cash flow against $894.5M in total assets and $90.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.57 (-0.33%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BBAI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BBAI SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (32% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+6/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 30% Net Buy • Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$2.18+0.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$2.19+12.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$2.46+4.9% Next Q

Current

Grade E$2.58-10% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (20) → E (28)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BBAI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BBAI currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.64) and Max Pain ($2.71) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.77.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BBAI• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BBAI Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How BBAI Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $155.2M

FY24

Rev $158.2M

FY25

Rev $127.7M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$127.7M	22.3%	-167.5%	-$294.0M	-$42.5M	-27.5%
FY 2024	$158.2M	28.6%	-84.3%	-$296.0M	-$38.6M	-45%
FY 2023	$155.2M	22.3%	-25.2%	-$71.0M	-$25.3M	-7.2%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BBAI)

✓Walkthrough of BBAI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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BBAI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -38.13%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $2.67H $2.67L $2.58C $2.58VOL 26.12M

RES: $2.64SUP: $1.82SMA50: $2.64SMA200: $3.55

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BBAI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BBAI Butterfly Map → + Track BBAI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

16.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -19.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BBAI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BBAI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BBAI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BBAI)

Technology Rank #618 of 715 ⚔️ GTM vs BBAI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (BBAI vs. GTM, RDVT, ALKT, PD)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, BigBear.ai Inc. (BBAI) ranks #618 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #336 by equity capitalization ($1.25B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PD leads on earnings valuation at 7.9x trailing P/E, while RDVT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.1% ROIC and — gross margin. RDVT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with BBAI at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BBAI ACTIVE BigBear.ai Inc.	E	28/100	—	22.3%	-27.5%	-0.77%	$1.25B	Benchmark Subject
GTM ZoomInfo Technologies Inc	D+	52/100	10.5x	84.0%	6.7%	-1.15%	$1.27B	/gtm-vs-bbai →
RDVT Red Violet Inc.	C+	68/100	98.2x	—	16.1%	-2.84%	$1.28B	/rdvt-vs-bbai →
ALKT Alkami Technology Inc.	E	31/100	—	57.8%	-14.2%	+7.58%	$1.33B	/alkt-vs-bbai →
PD PagerDuty Inc.	C	63/100	7.9x	84.9%	6.8%	-1.36%	$1.33B	/pd-vs-bbai →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001836981 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), BigBear.ai Inc. (BBAI) reported GAAP revenue of $127.7M (-19.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $158.2M , and -17.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$294.0M, operating cash flow of -$42.0M, and free cash flow of -$42.5M (-10.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, BBAI closed FY2025 with $894.5M in total assets against $90.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.92, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$127.7M	-$294.0M	-$42.0M	-$42.5M	$894.5M	$90.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$158.2M	-$296.0M	-$38.1M	-$38.6M	$343.8M	$135.4M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$155.2M	-$71.0M	-$18.3M	-$25.3M	$706.9M	$165.4M

3. BBAI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BBAI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does BBAI compare to GTM and RDVT in the Technology sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BBAI?

Where is BBAI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BBAI last traded at $2.58 (-0.77% on volume of 25,384,242 shares), positioning the stock -2.27% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.64) and -27.32% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.55). Across its 52-week range of $2.07 to $7.40, BBAI sits at the 9.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.26 to $2.90).

Direct Sub-Reports: BBAI RQD Cockpit BBAI 12M Forecast BBAI Earnings & Move BBAI Dividends & DRIP BBAI Insiders & 13F BBAI Whale Options BBAI Profit Sankey BBAI News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 28/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BBAI — BigBear.ai Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

BigBear.ai Inc. (BBAI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 28/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $2.58 (-0.77% 1D, market capitalization $1.25B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -27.5%, gross margin of 22.3%, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -3.30%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 1.20x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.92, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.15x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

BigBear.ai Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Technology sector, operating in the Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry. The company reported revenue of $127.7M for FY 2025 and $158.2M for FY 2024. Gross margin is reported at 22.3%, while operating and net margins are both reported at -60%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), BigBear.ai Inc. (BBAI) reported $127.7M in annual revenue (up from $158.2M in FY2024, -19.3% YoY) and -$294.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($155.2M revenue, -$71.0M net income) through FY2025, BBAI scaled operating cash flow to -$42.0M and free cash flow to -$42.5M, backed by $894.5M in total assets against $90.5M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 28/100): Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -3.30% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.07 – $7.40 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.20x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (Technology), BBAI carries a macro regime beta of 1.20 and gross margin of 22.3%.

Key Question #1: Can BBAI sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -27.5% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $127.7M and free cash flow of -$42.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $90.5M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is BBAI's 23.0x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.20x)?

BBAI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for BigBear.ai Inc. (BBAI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BBAI Debate Forum (3) ↓

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

BigBear.ai (BBAI) Stock Could Be Fully Priced On Current Sales

Yahoo Finance report covering BigBear.ai Inc. (BBAI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH TradingView • 1d ago

BigBear.ai Is Heavily Shorted—and Its Fundamentals Are Starting to Change

TradingView report covering BigBear.ai Inc. (BBAI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST The Motley Fool • 1d ago

Why BigBear.ai Stock Soared as Much as 11.7% Today

The Motley Fool report covering BigBear.ai Inc. (BBAI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Will BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Report Negative Earnings Next Week? What You Should Know

Yahoo Finance report covering BigBear.ai Inc. (BBAI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST The Motley Fool • 1d ago

Stock Market Today, Oct. 13: BigBear.ai Shares Gain on $225 Million Contract Awards

The Motley Fool report covering BigBear.ai Inc. (BBAI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH TradingView • 1d ago

BigBear.ai Trades at a Discount to Industry: Buy the Stock or Hold?

TradingView report covering BigBear.ai Inc. (BBAI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Federal Contract Wins Could Be A Game Changer For BigBear.ai Stock (BBAI)

Yahoo Finance report covering BigBear.ai Inc. (BBAI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH The Motley Fool • 1d ago

BigBear.ai vs. IonQ: Which Technology Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

The Motley Fool report covering BigBear.ai Inc. (BBAI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BBAI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.58?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BBAI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.17 (+21.9%)

📌 Pinned Debate

The stock rose 8.54% on the day and the news wire flags $225 Million in contract awards as a catalyst.

Picked up a starter position in BBAI in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $2.60. The stock rose 8.54% on the day and the news wire flags $225 Million in contract awards as a catalyst.. Trading inside a $2.07–$7.40 52-week range with -3.3% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Computer Software: Prepackaged Software multiples expand this quarter.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — BBAI's 5/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.21 (-15.0%)

Spot @ $2.60

Negative operating margin of -60% and an Altman Z of 0.92 point to forensic balance-sheet weakness.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on BBAI: Negative operating margin of -60% and an Altman Z of 0.92 point to forensic balance-sheet weakness.. At 23.0x forward P/E, even a small guidance miss in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software triggers a 12-15% air pocket.