Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.3% Move

$11.34 -0.79% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.30

Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 25/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $887.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AEBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (NASDAQ: AEBI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 25/100 at a spot price of $11.34 (-0.79% 1D, market cap $887.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 4/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AEBI ranks #941 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AEBI compare to PSNY and LCID in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Manufacturing), AEBI carries a Roarable E (25/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 91.1x, gross margin of 19.9%, and ROIC of 4.6%. By comparison, PSNY (Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC Class A ADS) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $663.7M) and LCID (Lucid Group Inc.) posts a E grade (16/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.26B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AEBI leads on earnings multiple (91.1x) while AEBI leads on capital efficiency (4.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AEBI?
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Per AEBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002048519), Aebi Schmidt Holding AG generated $1.53B in revenue (+40.6% YoY), $9.7M in net income, and -$5.2M in free cash flow against $2.01B in total assets and $548.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.30 (-0.33%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (25/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510025
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (4)Whales (7)SEC (7)Macro (3)CEO (4)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-14.8% Base Target
$17 Bull$10 Base$8 Bear
📬 FREE AEBI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AEBI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (25/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AEBI SCORES 25/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+7/20 pts (28% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.3% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+7/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.62 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
17
Grade E$11.04-0.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
20
Grade E$11.00+1.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
22
Grade E$11.13+1.9% Next Q
Current
25
Grade E$11.34-10.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (17) → E (25)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AEBI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AEBI currently carries a cautious 25/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.60) and Max Pain ($11.91) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $16.76.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AEBI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AEBI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.3% Swing Band

±$0.71 Expected Swing
$10.63 (-6.3%)Spot $11.34$12.05 (+6.3%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AEBI Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 25/100

Trailing EPS: $0.13 • YoY Revenue Growth: 40.6%

Model Bullish Setup (25/100)Model Risk Weight (75/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$1.53B$9.7M-$5.2M19.9%
FY 20242024-12-31$1.09B$30.7M$55.2M21%
FY 20232023-12-31$1.02B$11.2M$30.1M19.9%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AEBI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AEBI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AEBI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.75%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $11.39H $11.43L $11.34C $11.34VOL 173.0K
RES: $16.98SUP: $9.30SMA50: $11.60SMA200: $12.38
$15.28$13.91$12.55$11.18$9.82RES $16.98SUP $9.30$11.342026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AEBI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +40.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AEBI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AEBI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AEBI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AEBI)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #941 of 1011 ⚔️ PSNY vs AEBI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (AEBI vs. PSNY, LCID, LOT, AIIO)

Industry: Auto Manufacturing (28 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) ranks #941 by composite RQD confidence (25/100, grade E) and #527 by equity capitalization ($887.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AEBI leads on earnings valuation at 91.1x trailing P/E, while AEBI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 4.6% ROIC and 19.9% gross margin. PSNY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 45/100 (D) compared with AEBI at 25/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AEBI ACTIVE
Aebi Schmidt Holding AG
E 25/100 91.1x 19.9% 4.6% -0.79% $887.0M Benchmark Subject
PSNY
Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC Class A ADS
D 45/100 — — — +1.49% $663.7M /psny-vs-aebi →
LCID
Lucid Group Inc.
E 16/100 — -30.0% -35.0% -5.62% $1.26B /lcid-vs-aebi →
LOT
Lotus Technology Inc.
E 22/100 — 8.7% -35.0% -8.18% $274.8M /lot-vs-aebi →
AIIO
Robo.ai Inc. (Class B)
E 24/100 — 62.5% -35.0% -11.24% $161.2M /aiio-vs-aebi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002048519

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) reported GAAP revenue of $1.53B (+40.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.09B , and +50.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $9.7M, operating cash flow of $9.0M, and free cash flow of -$5.2M (-109.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, AEBI closed FY2025 with $2.01B in total assets against $548.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.62, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.53B $9.7M $9.0M -$5.2M $2.01B $548.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.09B $30.7M $68.8M $55.2M $1.09B $376.6M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.02B $11.2M $30.1M $30.1M — —

3. AEBI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AEBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (NASDAQ: AEBI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 25/100 at a spot price of $11.34 (-0.79% 1D, market cap $887.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 4/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AEBI ranks #941 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AEBI compare to PSNY and LCID in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Manufacturing), AEBI carries a Roarable E (25/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 91.1x, gross margin of 19.9%, and ROIC of 4.6%. By comparison, PSNY (Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC Class A ADS) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $663.7M) and LCID (Lucid Group Inc.) posts a E grade (16/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.26B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AEBI leads on earnings multiple (91.1x) while AEBI leads on capital efficiency (4.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AEBI?

Per AEBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002048519), Aebi Schmidt Holding AG generated $1.53B in revenue (+40.6% YoY), $9.7M in net income, and -$5.2M in free cash flow against $2.01B in total assets and $548.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AEBI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AEBI last traded at $11.34 (-0.79% on volume of 156,243 shares), positioning the stock -2.24% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.60) and -8.40% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.38). Across its 52-week range of $8.91 to $15.96, AEBI sits at the 34.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.3% ($10.63 to $12.05).

AEBI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is AEBI's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is AEBI stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6.3% event move for AEBI, spanning a range between $10.63 and $12.05.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 25/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AEBI — Aebi Schmidt Holding AG: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:32:06Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AEBI carries an RQD Score of 25 out of 100, a letter grade of E, and the verdict label "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 (ROIC 4.6%; FCF yield -0.59%), Whale 13F Flow at 7/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 4/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 3/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 7/20 (Altman Z 1.62; Piotroski F 5/9; Debt/Equity 0.67). Every pillar scores in the lower portion of its range, with the weakest readings in macro fit and the cash engine. For a prospective investor, the implication is that the rating's cash-generation and insider-activity pillars do not offer supporting evidence for the current price of $11.43, while the forensic balance-sheet pillar flags leverage and financial-health concerns that the rating treats as elevated risk. The valuation tradeoff is that the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 91.1 against EPS (TTM) of 0.13, a multiple the rating's pillars do not justify on cash-flow grounds. Any upside case would depend on earnings or cash-flow improvement that the current data does not yet show.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
11.43$887.0M91.176.515.70.131.51%1.0$8.91 - $15.964.6%

Business

Per the profile, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Auto Manufacturing industry, with a market capitalization of $0.9B. The source data does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model in detail. Per the SEC financials, the company reported FY 2025 revenue of $1526.6M, indicating a substantial operating scale. The source data does not provide further detail on how the company makes money.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$1526.6M$73.1M$9.7MN/A$-5.2M$98.5M$548.0M
FY 2024$1086.0M$68.5M$30.7MN/A$55.2M$65.2M$376.6M
FY 2023$1015.6M$59.0M$11.2MN/A$30.1MN/AN/A

Per the market data, gross margin is 19.9%, operating margin 4.8%, and net margin 0.6%, with ROIC at 4.6%. Per the RQD forensic balance-sheet pillar, the Altman Z-Score is 1.62, the Piotroski F-Score is 5 of 9, and Debt/Equity is 0.67. FY 2025 free cash flow was negative at $-5.2M after $55.2M in FY 2024, and reported debt rose from $376.6M to $548.0M over the same period. The FCF yield of -0.59% is consistent with the negative FY 2025 cash flow.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as "NONE," with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. The source data therefore does not identify upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or cross-sector dependencies. The only sector context available is the Consumer Discretionary / Auto Manufacturing classification and the RQD macro-fit pillar's note of sector sensitivity at Beta 1.0. A prospective investor should watch for the absence of documented supply-chain linkages as itself a gap in diligence rather than evidence of their absence.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's principal products, customers, and geographic markets, given that the source data provides only a sector and industry classification?
  • What drove the decline in FY 2025 net income to $9.7M from $30.7M in FY 2024 despite higher revenue, and is that trend continuing?
  • What is the composition and maturity of the debt rising from $376.6M to $548.0M, and how is it being serviced given negative FY 2025 free cash flow?
  • Why are EPS figures reported as N/A for each period, and what is the reconciled per-share earnings base behind the EPS (TTM) of 0.13?
  • What catalysts or supply-chain relationships could explain the institutional and options positioning the RQD whale-flow pillar references, given that no holder or news data is provided?

AEBI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AEBI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 81d ago
Aebi Schmidt Q2 Earnings Call Highlights

Aebi Schmidt (NASDAQ:AEBI) reported higher second-quarter sales, orders and profitability, citing stronger backlog conversion, operational efficiency gains and progress on integration synergies following its acquisition

Read Full Source ↗
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AEBI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.34?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AEBI 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AEBI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $10.06 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AEBI (E • RQD 25/100) a Buy at $11.43?

Welcome to the AEBI (Aebi Schmidt Holding AG) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 25/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Auto Manufacturing. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (91.1x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.37 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $11.43

Pump the brakes on AEBI — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AEBI, but look at what you are paying: 91.1x trailing P/E with 19.9% gross margins. Unless Aebi Schmidt Holding AG expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $14.40 (+26.0%)
Spot @ $11.43

AEBI cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AEBI, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Auto Manufacturing and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $11.43 (52-wk range $8.91 - $15.96), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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