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Stock Ratings / Technology / VWAV
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VisionWave Holdings Inc. (VWAV) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$2.19 -17.67% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.12

VisionWave Holdings Inc. (VWAV) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $8.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on VWAV Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is VWAV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, VisionWave Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: VWAV) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $2.19 (-17.67% 1D, market cap $8.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, VWAV ranks #525 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does VWAV compare to HPAI and DTSS in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), VWAV carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, HPAI (Helport AI Limited) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 5.1x, ROIC —, cap $8.7M) and DTSS (Datasea Intelligent Technology Ltd. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $8.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, HPAI leads on earnings multiple (5.1x) while WIMI leads on capital efficiency (-3.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VWAV?
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Per VWAV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0002038439), VisionWave Holdings Inc. generated $18.9M in revenue (+1094.3% YoY), -$6.5M in net income, and -$2.8M in free cash flow against $18.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.12 (-3.37%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510035
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (7)Whales (3)SEC (10)Macro (10)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.5% Base Target
$332 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE VWAV RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VWAV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY VWAV SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 30.9 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
43
Grade D$4.39-13.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
40
Grade D$3.80-35% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
38
Grade E$2.47-11.3% Next Q
Current
35
Grade D-$2.19-8.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (43) → D- (35)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VWAV Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While VWAV currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.13) and Max Pain ($2.30) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $331.80.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VWAV• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “VWAV Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)
30.930 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
1 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE2% OF RANGE
L: $2$2.19H: $316
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 7 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 8 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on VWAV

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (35)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 1/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (30)

8/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like VWAV
  • ✓Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VWAV)

  • ✓Walkthrough of VWAV's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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VWAV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -98.09%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $2.89H $2.89L $2.19C $2.19VOL 63.8K
RES: $-10.34SUP: $-55.00SMA50: $7.13SMA200: $87.72
$193.3$141.5$89.72$37.92$-13.89RES $-10.34SUP $-55.00$2.192026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VWAV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VWAV Butterfly Map → + Track VWAV →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1094.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VWAV today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VWAV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VWAV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VWAV)

Technology Rank #525 of 715 ⚔️ HPAI vs VWAV Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (VWAV vs. HPAI, DTSS, BLIN, WIMI)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, VisionWave Holdings Inc. (VWAV) ranks #525 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #652 by equity capitalization ($8.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HPAI leads on earnings valuation at 5.1x trailing P/E, while WIMI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -3.4% ROIC and — gross margin. HPAI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 56/100 (D+) compared with VWAV at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
VWAV ACTIVE
VisionWave Holdings Inc.
D- 35/100 — — -35.0% -17.67% $8.6M Benchmark Subject
HPAI
Helport AI Limited
D+ 56/100 5.1x 54.9% — +1.56% $8.7M /hpai-vs-vwav →
DTSS
Datasea Intelligent Technology Ltd. (Class A)
D- 40/100 — 3.5% — -7.24% $8.9M /dtss-vs-vwav →
BLIN
Bridgeline Digital Inc.
E 31/100 — 66.6% -23.3% +5.00% $8.3M /blin-vs-vwav →
WIMI
WiMi Hologram Cloud Inc. (Class B)
E 27/100 — — -3.4% +2.46% $9.0M /wimi-vs-vwav →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0002038439 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), VisionWave Holdings Inc. (VWAV) reported GAAP revenue of $18.9M (+1094.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.6M ) , GAAP net income of -$6.5M, operating cash flow of -$2.8M, and free cash flow of -$2.8M . On the balance sheet, VWAV closed FY2025 with $18.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $18.9M -$6.5M -$2.8M -$2.8M $18.4M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.6M $0 — — $3.8M —

3. VWAV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VWAV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, VisionWave Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: VWAV) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $2.19 (-17.67% 1D, market cap $8.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, VWAV ranks #525 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VWAV compare to HPAI and DTSS in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), VWAV carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, HPAI (Helport AI Limited) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 5.1x, ROIC —, cap $8.7M) and DTSS (Datasea Intelligent Technology Ltd. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $8.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, HPAI leads on earnings multiple (5.1x) while WIMI leads on capital efficiency (-3.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VWAV?

Per VWAV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0002038439), VisionWave Holdings Inc. generated $18.9M in revenue (+1094.3% YoY), -$6.5M in net income, and -$2.8M in free cash flow against $18.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VWAV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VWAV last traded at $2.19 (-17.67% on volume of 118,369 shares), positioning the stock -69.28% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.13) and -97.50% below its 200-day simple moving average ($87.72). Across its 52-week range of $2.20 to $316.00, VWAV sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 30.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.92 to $2.46).

Direct Sub-Reports: VWAV RQD Cockpit VWAV 12M Forecast VWAV Earnings & Move VWAV Dividends & DRIP VWAV Insiders & 13F VWAV Whale Options VWAV Profit Sankey VWAV News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 35/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

VWAV — VisionWave Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-09-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

VisionWave Holdings Inc. (VWAV) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 35/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $2.19 (-17.67% 1D, market capitalization $8.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

VisionWave Holdings Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector and Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry. The profile lists a market capitalization of $0.0B, which conflicts with the $9.4M figure in the market data section. Per the news wire, the company's public messaging centers on aerial and counter-UAS layers of a developing defense architecture, RF sensing for counter-UAS and electronic warfare, and non-line-of-sight applications, with at least one item describing a radar in development. The source does not state customers, revenue model, or pricing.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), VisionWave Holdings Inc. (VWAV) reported $18.9M in annual revenue (up from $1.6M in FY2024, +1094.3% YoY) and -$6.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2024 ($1.6M revenue, $0 net income) through FY2025, VWAV scaled operating cash flow to -$2.8M and free cash flow to -$2.8M, backed by $18.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 35/100): Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.20 – $316.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are identified in the source data. The only sector context available is the Technology / Computer Software: Prepackaged Software classification from the profile and the defense-related themes described in the news wire.

  • Key Question #1: Can VWAV sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $18.9M and free cash flow of -$2.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is VWAV's equity valuation to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

VWAV Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for VisionWave Holdings Inc. (VWAV) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to VWAV Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

VWAV Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.19?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON VWAV 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on VWAV:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.30 (+24.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Six recent news items frame VWAV around counter-UAS, RF sensing, and defense-architecture programs that could be upside drivers if deve

Here is why I am bullish on VWAV here at $2.66: Six recent news items frame VWAV around counter-UAS, RF sensing, and defense-architecture programs that could be upside drivers if development progresses.. Compare VWAV's 0.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $2.53 are getting bought.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — VWAV's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.29 (-13.9%)
Spot @ $2.66

A 35 RQD score with -35% ROIC, 0% FCF yield, 1/9 Piotroski, and $0.0M reported revenue leaves the equity without cash-flow or earnings

Careful chasing VWAV at $2.66. A 35 RQD score with -35% ROIC, 0% FCF yield, 1/9 Piotroski, and $0.0M reported revenue leaves the equity without cash-flow or earnings support.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $2.29 on multiple compression.

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