What is TSCO's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

TSCO's 12-month base price target is $37.22 (range $28.95 to $59.79), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / TSCO

QXO (26) BLDR (60) FAST (78) FND (53) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: Should I buy, hold, or sell TSCO stock right now?

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) currently earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy — BUY) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (36.4% gross margin, 28% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

$35.31 +4.04% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $35.65

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (36.4% gross margin, 28% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $17.68B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TSCO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TSCO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ: TSCO) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $35.31 (+4.04% 1D, market cap $17.68B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TSCO ranks #146 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TSCO compare to QXO and BLDR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (RETAIL: Building Materials), TSCO carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.0x, gross margin of 36.4%, and ROIC of 27.9%. By comparison, QXO (QXO Inc.) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.9%, cap $11.45B) and BLDR (Builders FirstSource Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 15.6x, ROIC 8.8%, cap $6.98B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BLDR leads on earnings multiple (15.6x) while TSCO leads on capital efficiency (27.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TSCO?

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Per TSCO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27, CIK 0000916365), Tractor Supply Company generated $15.52B in revenue (+4.3% YoY), $1.10B in net income, and $740.5M in free cash flow against $10.93B in total assets and $1.76B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (36.4% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $35.65 (+0.97%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 4.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TSCO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TSCO SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.8% FCF Margin ($740.5M FCF) & 36.4% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (55.3) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$32.74-0.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$32.69-3.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$31.61+11.7% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$35.31+6.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (62) → B- (70)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TSCO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, TSCO faces multiple-compression risk if 16.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 33.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($33.19) or 200D SMA ($37.83) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($37.22) toward Bear Floor ($28.95).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TSCO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TSCO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 26, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

55.330 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

4.18>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

8 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE24% OF RANGE

L: $28$35.31H: $57

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (36.4% gross margin and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: ARQD 18 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 28 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on TSCO

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (90)

27.9% ROIC with 36.4% gross margin and 4.22% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (80)

Altman-Z 4.18 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (60)

28/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TSCO

✓Strong cash generator (36.4% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TSCO Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TSCO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +9.29%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-11-03O $33.65H $35.31L $33.65C $35.31VOL 10.77M

RES: $34.81SUP: $30.04SMA50: $33.19SMA200: $37.83

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TSCO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TSCO Butterfly Map → + Track TSCO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

8.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TSCO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TSCO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TSCO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TSCO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #146 of 1009 ⚔️ QXO vs TSCO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TSCO vs. QXO, BLDR, FAST, FND)

Industry: RETAIL: Building Materials (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) ranks #146 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #105 by equity capitalization ($17.68B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BLDR leads on earnings valuation at 15.6x trailing P/E, while TSCO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 27.9% ROIC and 36.4% gross margin. FAST currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with TSCO at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TSCO ACTIVE Tractor Supply Company	B-	70/100	16.0x	36.4%	27.9%	+4.04%	$17.68B	Benchmark Subject
QXO QXO Inc.	E	26/100	—	23.0%	-1.9%	+5.80%	$11.45B	/qxo-vs-tsco →
BLDR Builders FirstSource Inc.	C-	60/100	15.6x	30.4%	8.8%	+4.48%	$6.98B	/bldr-vs-tsco →
FAST Fastenal Company	B+	78/100	47.9x	45.0%	27.1%	+1.23%	$59.56B	/fast-vs-tsco →
FND Floor & Decor Holdings Inc.	D+	53/100	25.7x	43.6%	11.0%	+3.26%	$4.96B	/fnd-vs-tsco →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-27 • CIK 0000916365 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27), Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) reported GAAP revenue of $15.52B (+4.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $14.88B , and +6.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.10B, operating cash flow of $1.64B, and free cash flow of $740.5M (+16.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TSCO closed FY2025 with $10.93B in total assets against $1.76B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.18, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-27	$15.52B	$1.10B	$1.64B	$740.5M	$10.93B	$1.76B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-28	$14.88B	$1.10B	$1.42B	$636.8M	$9.81B	$1.83B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-30	$14.56B	$1.11B	$1.33B	$679.0M	$17.47B	$4.09B

3. TSCO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TSCO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TSCO compare to QXO and BLDR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TSCO?

Where is TSCO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TSCO last traded at $35.31 (+4.04% on volume of 11,859,056 shares), positioning the stock +6.39% above its 50-day simple moving average ($33.19) and -6.66% below its 200-day simple moving average ($37.83). Across its 52-week range of $28.36 to $56.94, TSCO sits at the 24.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.2% ($32.06 to $38.56).

Direct Sub-Reports: TSCO RQD Cockpit TSCO 12M Forecast TSCO Earnings & Move TSCO Dividends & DRIP TSCO Insiders & 13F TSCO Whale Options TSCO Profit Sankey TSCO News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 70/100 (B-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TSCO — Tractor Supply Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-27

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 70/100, corresponding to a B- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $35.31 (+4.04% 1D, market capitalization $17.68B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (18/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 27.9%, gross margin of 36.4%, operating margin of 9.5%, and free cash flow yield of 4.22%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.05x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.18, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.68x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Tractor Supply Company is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the RETAIL: Building Materials industry. The profile describes the company as having a market capitalization of $17.5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-27), Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) reported $15.52B in annual revenue (up from $14.88B in FY2024, +4.3% YoY) and $1.10B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($14.56B revenue, $1.11B net income) through FY2025, TSCO scaled operating cash flow to $1.64B and free cash flow to $740.5M, backed by $10.93B in total assets against $1.76B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (B- • RQD 70/100): Strong cash generator (36.4% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 18/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $28.36 – $56.94 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 16.0x trailing P/E and 8.6x EV/EBITDA against 9.5% operating margins and a 1.05x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies: — Sector correlations: — Second-order bottlenecks: — The sector and industry classification (Consumer Discretionary; RETAIL: Building Materials) is the only structural context provided. Investors should note that the RQD macro-regime pillar cites sector sensitivity as a drag, which is the closest indication of second-order exposure in the source data.

Key Question #1: Can TSCO sustain or expand its 9.5% operating margin and 27.9% ROIC against RETAIL: Building Materials peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $15.52B and free cash flow of $740.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.76B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is TSCO's 14.9x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.05x)?

TSCO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TSCO Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Tractor Supply Earnings Preview: What to Expect

Yahoo Finance report covering Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Tractor Supply • 1d ago

Tractor Supply Company Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results; Reaffirms Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook

Tractor Supply report covering Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Tractor Supply Q3: Caution Is Warranted (Rating Downgrade) (NASDAQ:TSCO)

Seeking Alpha report covering Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Consumer Retail Stocks Q2 Teardown: Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO) Vs The Rest

Yahoo Finance report covering Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Investing.com • 1d ago

Truist raises Tractor Supply stock price target on improved sales

Investing.com report covering Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Tractor Supply Gears Up for Q3 Earnings: What Awaits the Stock?

Yahoo Finance report covering Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Compared to Estimates, Tractor Supply (TSCO) Q3 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics

Yahoo Finance report covering Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Tractor Supply (TSCO) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates

Yahoo Finance report covering Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TSCO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $35.31?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TSCO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $39.03 (+15.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Per the Roarable RQD rating, a 27.9% ROIC and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 signal a strong cash engine and sound balance sheet.

Per the Roarable RQD rating, a 27.9% ROIC and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 signal a strong cash engine and sound balance sheet.. When you look under the hood at TSCO, Fundamental Cash Engine is 18/20 with 36.4% gross margins and 27.9% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (11/20) has been quietly accumulating below $56.94. My 12M target is $39.03.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — TSCO's 16/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $27.49 (-19.0%)

Spot @ $33.94

Per the Roarable RQD rating, the lowest-scoring pillar is macro regime fit at 8/20, driven by beta of 1.05 and sector sensitivity.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on TSCO: Per the Roarable RQD rating, the lowest-scoring pillar is macro regime fit at 8/20, driven by beta of 1.05 and sector sensitivity.. At 16.0x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in RETAIL: Building Materials triggers a 12-15% air pocket.