Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$33.94 +0.86% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.93

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $17.53B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TSCO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ: TSCO) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $33.94 (+0.86% 1D, market cap $17.53B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TSCO ranks #179 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TSCO compare to QXO and BLDR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (RETAIL: Building Materials), TSCO carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.0x, gross margin of 36.4%, and ROIC of 27.9%. By comparison, QXO (QXO Inc.) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.9%, cap $11.81B) and BLDR (Builders FirstSource Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 15.6x, ROIC 8.8%, cap $6.79B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BLDR leads on earnings multiple (15.6x) while TSCO leads on capital efficiency (27.9% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TSCO?
β–Ό

Per TSCO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27, CIK 0000916365), Tractor Supply Company generated $15.52B in revenue (+4.3% YoY), $1.10B in net income, and $740.5M in free cash flow against $10.93B in total assets and $1.76B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (36% profit margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.93 (-0.04%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) β€’ 4.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 56.9% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C+
025507510068
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B Β· Rk C-
Cash (18)Whales (9)SEC (16)Macro (8)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target
$60 Bull$35 Base$28 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE TSCO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TSCO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±9.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY TSCO SCORES 68/100 (C+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.8% FCF Margin ($740.5M FCF) & 36.4% Gross Margin

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (53.7) create a -12 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
60
Grade C$33.70-2.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
63
Grade C+$32.91-2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
65
Grade C+$32.24+5.3% Next Q
Current
68
Grade C+$33.94+1.8% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C (60) β†’ C+ (68)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TSCO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, TSCO faces multiple-compression risk if 16.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 33.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($33.22) or 200D SMA ($37.92) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($35.47) toward Bear Floor ($27.67).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TSCOβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œTSCO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 26, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
4.58% Total Yield
2.78% Cash ($0.94/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
88/100 β€’ FORTRESS PAYOUT
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
42.8% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (8.1% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $21,790

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $998/yr
$10.8K
Yr 1
$11.7K
Yr 2
$12.6K
Yr 3
$13.7K
Yr 4
$14.8K
Yr 5
$16.0K
Yr 6
$17.2K
Yr 7
$18.6K
Yr 8
$20.2K
Yr 9
$21.8K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Cash-Flow & Quality Compounder Desk

Cash-Fortress Compounders: Auditing Free Cash Flow & Yield Safety in TSCO & A-Rated Leaders

  • βœ“12-month Bull/Base/Bear fair-value walkthrough on TSCO and its top sector peer
  • βœ“Top Roarable A-Rated cash compounders with verified executive & 13F accumulation
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TSCO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.04%πŸ“ WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-11-02O $31.61H $33.94L $31.61C $33.94VOL 9.43M
RES: $34.73SUP: $30.03SMA50: $33.22SMA200: $37.92
$54.69$47.56$40.42$33.28$26.15RES $34.73SUP $30.03$33.942026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TSCO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TSCO today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TSCO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TSCO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TSCO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #179 of 1011 βš”οΈ QXO vs TSCO Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TSCO vs. QXO, BLDR, FND, FAST)

Industry: RETAIL: Building Materials (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) ranks #179 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #106 by equity capitalization ($17.53B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BLDR leads on earnings valuation at 15.6x trailing P/E, while TSCO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 27.9% ROIC and 36.4% gross margin. FAST currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 80/100 (B+) compared with TSCO at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TSCO ACTIVE
Tractor Supply Company
C+ 68/100 16.0x 36.4% 27.9% +0.86% $17.53B Benchmark Subject
QXO
QXO Inc.
E 26/100 β€” 23.0% -1.9% -2.99% $11.81B /qxo-vs-tsco β†’
BLDR
Builders FirstSource Inc.
C- 60/100 15.6x 30.4% 8.8% +2.93% $6.79B /bldr-vs-tsco β†’
FND
Floor & Decor Holdings Inc.
D+ 56/100 25.7x 43.6% 11.0% -5.46% $5.36B /fnd-vs-tsco β†’
FAST
Fastenal Company
B+ 80/100 47.9x 45.0% 27.1% -1.22% $60.29B /fast-vs-tsco β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-27 β€’ CIK 0000916365

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27), Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) reported GAAP revenue of $15.52B (+4.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $14.88B , and +6.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.10B, operating cash flow of $1.64B, and free cash flow of $740.5M (+16.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TSCO closed FY2025 with $10.93B in total assets against $1.76B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.18, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-27 $15.52B $1.10B $1.64B $740.5M $10.93B $1.76B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-28 $14.88B $1.10B $1.42B $636.8M $9.81B $1.83B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-30 $14.56B $1.11B $1.33B $679.0M $17.47B $4.09B

3. TSCO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TSCO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ: TSCO) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $33.94 (+0.86% 1D, market cap $17.53B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TSCO ranks #179 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TSCO compare to QXO and BLDR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (RETAIL: Building Materials), TSCO carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.0x, gross margin of 36.4%, and ROIC of 27.9%. By comparison, QXO (QXO Inc.) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.9%, cap $11.81B) and BLDR (Builders FirstSource Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 15.6x, ROIC 8.8%, cap $6.79B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BLDR leads on earnings multiple (15.6x) while TSCO leads on capital efficiency (27.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TSCO?

Per TSCO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27, CIK 0000916365), Tractor Supply Company generated $15.52B in revenue (+4.3% YoY), $1.10B in net income, and $740.5M in free cash flow against $10.93B in total assets and $1.76B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (36% profit margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TSCO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TSCO last traded at $33.94 (+0.86% on volume of 10,768,527 shares), positioning the stock +2.17% above its 50-day simple moving average ($33.22) and -10.50% below its 200-day simple moving average ($37.92). Across its 52-week range of $28.36 to $56.94, TSCO sits at the 19.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±9.3% ($30.78 to $37.10).

TSCO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

Does TSCO pay a dividend and is it safe?

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) offers a 2.78% cash dividend yield ($0.94 annualized) and 4.58% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as FORTRESS PAYOUT.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 68/100 (C+) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TSCO β€” Tractor Supply Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:14:10Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TSCO scores 68 out of 100 (letter grade C+; verdict: Roarable Hold β€” Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout). The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (18 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 27.9% and FCF yield is 4.22%. This is the strongest pillar and the main source of the stock's quality profile. High return on invested capital alongside a moderate free-cash-flow yield suggests the business converts capital efficiently, though the yield indicates the market is not pricing the stock at a deep cash discount.
  • Whale / 13F Flow (9 / 20): The rating reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning, but the score is in the lower half. For a prospective investor, this signals that large-holder conviction is not a meaningful tailwind at present; the source data does not include the underlying 13F detail (see holders section).
  • Insider Conviction (17 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow scores well. This is a supportive signal, though the source data does not itemize the individual transactions.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, beta is 1.05 and sector sensitivity is the stated drag. The stock is slightly more volatile than the market, so its performance is exposed to shifts in the consumer discretionary and building-materials retail backdrop.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (16 / 20): Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 4.18, Piotroski F is 8/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.68. This indicates a financially sound balance sheet with low bankruptcy-risk signaling.

Implications for a prospective investor evaluating the stock today: the upside case rests on the cash-engine and balance-sheet strength, together with insider flow. The main valuation tradeoff is that the stock trades at a P/E of 16 (TTM) and 14.9 (forward), with EV/EBITDA of 8.6, so the price reflects a reasonable but not deeply discounted multiple. The weaker pillars (13F flow and macro fit) mean the stock is not currently receiving strong institutional tailwinds and carries sector-level sensitivity. The "Watch for Breakout" verdict indicates the rating sees the setup as neutral with potential to move higher if flow and macro conditions improve. This is analytical context, not personalized financial advice.

Snapshot

MetricValue
Price33.65
Market Cap$17.53B
P/E (TTM)16
Forward P/E14.9
EV/EBITDA8.6
EPS (TTM)2.1
Dividend Yield2.78%
Beta1.05
52-Wk Range$28.36 - $56.94
ROIC %27.9%

Business

Tractor Supply Company is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the RETAIL: Building Materials industry, per the company profile. The profile describes the company as having a market capitalization of $17.5B. The source data does not provide a description of specific products, customer segments, or revenue-generation model beyond the sector and industry classification.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$15524.0M$1467.4M$1096.1MN/A$740.5M$194.1M$1765.0M
FY 2024$14883.2M$1467.5M$1101.2MN/A$636.8M$251.5M$1832.0M
FY 2023$14555.7M$1478.9M$1107.2MN/A$679.0MN/A$4087.3M

Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $14555.7M (FY 2023) to $15524.0M (FY 2025), while net income was broadly flat across the three periods ($1107.2M, $1101.2M, $1096.1M). Per the market data, gross margin is 36.4%, operating margin 9.5%, and net margin 7.1%. ROIC is 27.9% per the market data and the Roarable RQD rating. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 4.18 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9. Debt declined from $4087.3M (FY 2023) to $1765.0M (FY 2025), and debt-to-equity is 0.68 per the Roarable RQD rating. Cash for FY 2023 is not available in source data.

Open Questions

  • What are the specific consensus rating and price targets, given that analyst data is not available in source data?
  • Which institutional holders and insider transactions make up the whale/13F and insider-conviction pillar scores?
  • What is the FY 2023 cash balance, and what are the reported EPS figures for each fiscal year?
  • What specific supply-chain or sector dependencies drive the "sector sensitivity" drag on the macro-regime pillar?
  • What does the Q3 2026 results release report beyond the reaffirmed Fiscal Year 2026 outlook?

TSCO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to TSCO Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TSCO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $33.94?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TSCO 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TSCO:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $36.34 (+8.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TSCO (C+ β€’ RQD 68/100) a Buy at $33.65?

Welcome to the TSCO (Tractor Supply Company) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 68/100 (Roarable Hold β€” Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in RETAIL: Building Materials. Bulls point to capital efficiency (27.9% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $27.26 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $33.65

Pump the brakes on TSCO β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TSCO, but look at what you are paying: 16.0x trailing P/E with 36.4% gross margins. Unless Tractor Supply Company expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $42.74 (+27.0%)
Spot @ $33.65

TSCO cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TSCO, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in RETAIL: Building Materials and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $33.65 (52-wk range $28.36 - $56.94), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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