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Stock Ratings / Financials / BCSF
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Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. (BCSF) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$10.92 +1.39% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.93

Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. (BCSF) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $698.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BCSF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. (NYSE: BCSF) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $10.92 (+1.39% 1D, market cap $698.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BCSF ranks #786 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BCSF compare to FDUS and NMFC in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance/Investors Services), BCSF carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.8%. By comparison, FDUS (Fidus Investment Corporation) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $732.9M) and NMFC (New Mountain Finance Corporation) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E 40.3x, ROIC 1.4%, cap $664.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SLRC leads on earnings multiple (7.0x) while SLRC leads on capital efficiency (9.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BCSF?
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Per BCSF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001655050), Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. generated $1.12B in revenue (+1.2% YoY), $98.8M in net income, and $29.5M in free cash flow against $2.66B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.93 (+0.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 2.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510045
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D-
Cash (10)Whales (6)SEC (10)Macro (6)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target
$15 Bull$10 Base$8 Bear
📬 FREE BCSF RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BCSF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BCSF SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.6% FCF Margin ($29.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (52.1) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
37
Grade E$10.62-4.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
40
Grade D$10.13+3.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
42
Grade D$10.45+4.5% Next Q
Current
45
Grade D$10.92-6.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (37) → D (45)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BCSF Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BCSF currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.04) and Max Pain ($11.47) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.44.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BCSF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BCSF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
52.130 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
3 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE20% OF RANGE
L: $10$10.92H: $15
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 10 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on BCSF

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (50)

8.8% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 4.19% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (42)

19/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 6/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like BCSF
  • ✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BCSF)

  • ✓Walkthrough of BCSF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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BCSF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.83%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $10.85H $10.92L $10.77C $10.92VOL 574.0K
RES: $12.25SUP: $9.82SMA50: $11.04SMA200: $12.43
$14.54$13.31$12.08$10.85$9.62RES $12.25SUP $9.82$10.922026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BCSF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BCSF Butterfly Map → + Track BCSF →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-7.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BCSF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BCSF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BCSF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BCSF)

Financials Rank #786 of 1097 ⚔️ FDUS vs BCSF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BCSF vs. FDUS, NMFC, SLRC, AIO)

Industry: Finance/Investors Services (37 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. (BCSF) ranks #786 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #623 by equity capitalization ($698.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SLRC leads on earnings valuation at 7.0x trailing P/E, while SLRC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.3% ROIC and — gross margin. BCSF currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
BCSF ACTIVE
Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc.
D 45/100 7.1x — 8.8% +1.39% $698.6M Benchmark Subject
FDUS
Fidus Investment Corporation
D- 39/100 — — — +0.88% $732.9M /fdus-vs-bcsf →
NMFC
New Mountain Finance Corporation
D 45/100 40.3x — 1.4% +1.14% $664.0M /nmfc-vs-bcsf →
SLRC
SLR Investment Corp.
E 32/100 7.0x — 9.3% +1.55% $634.5M /slrc-vs-bcsf →
AIO
Virtus Artificial Intelligence & Technology Opportunities Fund of
D 44/100 — — — -1.85% $818.7M /aio-vs-bcsf →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001655050 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. (BCSF) reported GAAP revenue of $1.12B (+1.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.11B , and +34.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $98.8M, operating cash flow of $29.5M, and free cash flow of $29.5M (+209.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, BCSF closed FY2025 with $2.66B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.12B $98.8M $29.5M $29.5M $2.66B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.11B $119.4M -$27.1M -$27.1M $2.63B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $833.2M $123.4M $219.3M $219.3M — —

3. BCSF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BCSF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. (NYSE: BCSF) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $10.92 (+1.39% 1D, market cap $698.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, BCSF ranks #786 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BCSF compare to FDUS and NMFC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance/Investors Services), BCSF carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.8%. By comparison, FDUS (Fidus Investment Corporation) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $732.9M) and NMFC (New Mountain Finance Corporation) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E 40.3x, ROIC 1.4%, cap $664.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SLRC leads on earnings multiple (7.0x) while SLRC leads on capital efficiency (9.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BCSF?

Per BCSF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001655050), Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. generated $1.12B in revenue (+1.2% YoY), $98.8M in net income, and $29.5M in free cash flow against $2.66B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BCSF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BCSF last traded at $10.92 (+1.39% on volume of 379,285 shares), positioning the stock -1.09% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.04) and -12.15% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.43). Across its 52-week range of $10.00 to $14.70, BCSF sits at the 19.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.0% ($10.37 to $11.47).

Direct Sub-Reports: BCSF RQD Cockpit BCSF 12M Forecast BCSF Earnings & Move BCSF Dividends & DRIP BCSF Insiders & 13F BCSF Whale Options BCSF Profit Sankey BCSF News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 45/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

BCSF — Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. (BCSF) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 45/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $10.92 (+1.39% 1D, market capitalization $698.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 4.19%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. (BCSF) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating in the Finance/Investors Services industry. The profile does not describe its products, customer base, or revenue model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. (BCSF) reported $1.12B in annual revenue (up from $1.11B in FY2024, +1.2% YoY) and $98.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($833.2M revenue, $123.4M net income) through FY2025, BCSF scaled operating cash flow to $29.5M and free cash flow to $29.5M, backed by $2.66B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 45/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 4.19% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $10.00 – $14.70 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 7.1x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Finance/Investors Services (Financials), BCSF carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can BCSF sustain or expand its — operating margin and 8.8% ROIC against Finance/Investors Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.12B and free cash flow of $29.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is BCSF's 6.6x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

BCSF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. (BCSF) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to BCSF Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

BCSF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $10.92?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON BCSF 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on BCSF:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.89 (+29.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Trading at 7.1x TTM earnings and 6.6x forward earnings with an FCF yield of 4.19% and ROIC of 8.8%, the stock screens cheaply on cash-g

The street is overcomplicating Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. (BCSF). Trading at 7.1x TTM earnings and 6.6x forward earnings with an FCF yield of 4.19% and ROIC of 8.8%, the stock screens cheaply on cash-generation metrics.. With an RQD score of 45/100 (D) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $11.63.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — BCSF's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.29 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $10.77

The RQD rating of 46 (grade D, Underperform / Distribution Warning) with a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 and Macro Regime Fit of 6/20 points

The RQD rating of 46 (grade D, Underperform / Distribution Warning) with a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 and Macro Regime Fit of 6/20 points to broad fundamental and sector-level weakness.. Look at the math on BCSF: paying 7.1x trailing P/E for 8.8% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Finance/Investors Services demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $9.48 before getting long.

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