Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

Per the Roarable RQD rating, XPOF scores 40 out of 100, a letter grade of D-, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars are:

• Fundamental Cash Engine: 11 / 20. The rating cites ROIC of 6.8% and an FCF yield of 13.41%. A double-digit FCF yield is a supportive cash signal, but it sits alongside a modest ROIC, so cash generation is not yet translating into strong returns on capital.
• Whale 13F Flow: 3 / 20. The rating reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. This is the weakest pillar, indicating limited evidence of sophisticated-holder conviction in the current source data.
• Insider Conviction: 11 / 20. The rating draws on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The score is mid-range, so insider signals are neither a strong endorsement nor a warning on their own.
• Macro Regime Fit: 9 / 20. The rating cites a beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. The stock is not meaningfully more volatile than the market, but its sensitivity to the consumer discretionary backdrop weighs on the score.
• Forensic Balance Sheet: 6 / 20. The rating cites an Altman Z of 0.2, a Piotroski F of 4/9, and a Debt/Equity of 0.5. This is the second-weakest pillar and the main driver of the overall "Vulnerable Balance Sheet" verdict.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the upside case rests on the cash-flow yield and a possible strategic catalyst (see news section). The valuation tradeoff is that the enterprise-value-to-EBITDA multiple of 29.9 is elevated relative to the operating margin of 6.3% and the net margin of -12.3%, meaning the market is paying for earnings recovery that the reported financials do not yet show. The forensic pillars indicate balance-sheet fragility, so downside sensitivity to any operating shortfall is high. This is an analytical framing, not personalized advice.

Per the SEC financials, revenue has been broadly flat across the three reported years, ranging from $314.9M to $320.3M. Operating income swung from $34.9M in FY 2023 to $-53.6M in FY 2024 before recovering to $19.8M in FY 2025, and net income was negative in all three periods. Per the market data, the operating margin is 6.3%, the net margin is -12.3%, and ROIC is 6.8%. Per the RQD forensic pillar, the Altman Z-Score is 0.2 and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, both weak, and Debt/Equity is 0.5; reported debt rose from $341.7M in FY 2024 to $500.5M in FY 2025.

Per the recent news and catalysts section, six items were reported:

• Takeover report (Yahoo Finance, GREEN / CATALYST): Headline reports shares jumped on reports of a takeover bid. This is the only item classified as a catalyst rather than market wire.
• Potential acquisition (Seeking Alpha, YELLOW): Headline suggests a potential acquisition could drive the share price higher.
• Ownership threshold (Stock Titan, YELLOW): Headline notes a buyer reaching 19.9% could activate other shareholders' right to buy shares, a governance item to monitor.
• Market-wire items (Yahoo! Finance Canada, TradingView, Stocktwits, YELLOW): General quote and price-history pages with no specific fundamental content beyond generic summaries.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Risk watch items: the reported share-price move of -6.73% on the current data, the proximity of the price to the bottom of its 52-week range ($3.57 - $9.25), and the unresolved status of the takeover and acquisition reports.

• Is the reported takeover or acquisition interest confirmed, and if so, what are the terms and the identity of the counterparty?
• What drove the swing from a $-53.6M operating loss in FY 2024 to a $19.8M operating gain in FY 2025, and is it repeatable?
• What is the cash balance, since cash is reported as N/A for every period, and how does it support the $500.5M debt load?
• What is the composition of the rise in debt from $341.7M to $500.5M, and what are its maturity and covenant terms?
• What explains the absence of EPS and P/E data, and what is the actual earnings base behind the 29.9 EV/EBITDA multiple?