Wabash National Corporation (WNC) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

WNC scores 56 out of 100, a letter grade of D+, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 11 / 20 (ROIC 31.2%; FCF yield -2.41%); Whale 13F Flow at 14 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 8 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 9 / 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 14 / 20 (Altman Z 3.07; Piotroski F 4/9; Debt/Equity 1.21).

The weakest pillars are Insider Conviction and Macro Regime Fit, and the cash-generation pillar is also below the midpoint despite a high reported ROIC, because the reported free cash flow yield is negative. For a prospective investor, the implication is that headline return-on-capital metrics are not yet being converted into free cash flow in the most recent period available in the source data. The forensic pillar is moderate: the Altman Z-Score of 3.07 and Debt/Equity of 1.21 are the inputs that carry it, while the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals limited financial-strength improvement. Insider and institutional signals are mixed rather than clearly supportive, so the rating does not point to a strong conviction backdrop. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the source: EV/EBITDA of 2.9 is low, which can attract value-oriented interest, but the rating framework weighs it against negative FCF and a thin evidence base for forward earnings. Upside drivers would need to come from converting profitability into cash; the rating's verdict reflects that this has not yet occurred in the provided data.

Wabash National Corporation is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Industrials sector, Construction/Ag Equipment/Trucks industry..5B.

Revenue declined from $2.54B in FY 2023 to $1.54B in FY 2025, and FY 2024 recorded a net loss of -$284.1M. FY 2025 returned to positive net income of $211.5M with an operating margin of 19.9% and net margin of 13.7% per the market data, while free cash flow was -$13.0M. Per the market data, ROIC is 31.2%, and the forensic metrics show an Altman Z-Score of 3.07 and a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9. Per the forensic inputs, Debt/Equity is 1.21, and reported gross margin is 0%.

• 🐂 Primary Bull Case: Orders waiting to be filled rose 25% to about $1.2 billion, and EV/EBITDA of 2.9 with ROIC of 31.2% suggests strong capital returns at a low valuation. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 (ROIC 31.2%, FCF yield -2.41%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $6.63 – $14.55 52-week range.
• 🐻 Primary Bear Case: A wider-than-expected Q3 2026 loss and negative FY 2025 free cash flow of -$13.0M leave the high ROIC unsupported by cash generation. Investors must weigh current valuation and 2.9x EV/EBITDA against 19.9% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no upstream or downstream links, no sector correlations, and no proprietary signals for WNC..

• Key Question #1: What drove the wider-than-expected Q3 2026 loss, and how does it reconcile with the FY 2025 net income of $211.5M?
• Key Question #2: Why is free cash flow negative in FY 2025 (-$13.0M) when ROIC is reported at 31.2%?
• Key Question #3: What is the composition of the reported backlog growth to about $1.2 billion, and how does it translate to revenue?