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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / WMS
AVY (74) REYN (70) SON (52) SW (56) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. (WMS) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$138.99 +2.63% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $139.98

Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. (WMS) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (38.3% gross margin, 22% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $10.21B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on WMS Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is WMS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. (NYSE: WMS) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $138.99 (+2.63% 1D, market cap $10.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, WMS ranks #127 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does WMS compare to AVY and REYN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Containers/Packaging), WMS carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.0x, gross margin of 38.3%, and ROIC of 22.3%. By comparison, AVY (Avery Dennison Corporation) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 20.1x, ROIC 17.4%, cap $13.81B) and REYN (Reynolds Consumer Products Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 16.5x, ROIC 13.4%, cap $4.98B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SON leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while WMS leads on capital efficiency (22.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for WMS?
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Per WMS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0001604028), Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. generated $3.05B in revenue (+5.0% YoY), $429.0M in net income, and $569.3M in free cash flow against $4.14B in total assets and $1.28B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (38.3% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $139.98 (+0.71%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 18.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
025507510071
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C
Cash (19)Whales (10)SEC (18)Macro (8)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.8% Base Target
$188 Bull$147 Base$114 Bear
📬 FREE WMS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for WMS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY WMS SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 18.7% FCF Margin ($569.3M FCF) & 38.3% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.15 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (60.5) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
63
Grade C+$125.19+3.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
66
Grade B-$130.00+0.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
68
Grade B-$130.11+6.8% Next Q
Current
71
Grade B-$138.99+6.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the WMS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, WMS faces multiple-compression risk if 24.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 35.8% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($130.44) or 200D SMA ($143.21) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($147.12) toward Bear Floor ($113.97).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $WMS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “WMS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 71%NO 29%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
60.530 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
5.15>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
8 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE29% OF RANGE
L: $123$138.99H: $179
1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (38.3% gross margin and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: A+RQD 19 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on WMS

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (95)

22.3% ROIC with 38.3% gross margin and 5.53% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (90)

Altman-Z 5.15 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (57)

26/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like WMS
  • ✓Strong cash generator (38.3% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (WMS Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
WMS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.25%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $136.5H $139.0L $135.4C $139.0VOL 563.5K
RES: $154.0SUP: $121.7SMA50: $130.4SMA200: $143.2
$160.5$150.3$140.1$129.9$119.7RES $154.0SUP $121.7$139.02026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

WMS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 WMS Butterfly Map → + Track WMS →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
17.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on WMS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for WMS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for WMS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (WMS)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #127 of 1009 ⚔️ AVY vs WMS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (WMS vs. AVY, REYN, SON, SW)

Industry: Containers/Packaging (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. (WMS) ranks #127 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #169 by equity capitalization ($10.21B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SON leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while WMS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.3% ROIC and 38.3% gross margin. AVY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with WMS at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
WMS ACTIVE
Advanced Drainage Systems Inc.
B- 71/100 24.0x 38.3% 22.3% +2.63% $10.21B Benchmark Subject
AVY
Avery Dennison Corporation
B 74/100 20.1x 28.8% 17.4% +2.63% $13.81B /avy-vs-wms →
REYN
Reynolds Consumer Products Inc.
B- 70/100 16.5x 24.6% 13.4% +4.32% $4.98B /reyn-vs-wms →
SON
Sonoco Products Company
D+ 52/100 4.9x 20.9% 11.4% +0.50% $4.94B /son-vs-wms →
SW
Smurfit WestRock plc
D+ 56/100 31.9x 19.4% 4.7% +0.72% $22.60B /sw-vs-wms →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-31 • CIK 0001604028 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. (WMS) reported GAAP revenue of $3.05B (+5.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.90B , and +6.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $429.0M, operating cash flow of $819.1M, and free cash flow of $569.3M (+54.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, WMS closed FY2025 with $4.14B in total assets against $1.28B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.15, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-03-31 $3.05B $429.0M $819.1M $569.3M $4.14B $1.28B
FY2024 (FY) 2025-03-31 $2.90B $453.0M $581.5M $368.5M $3.60B $1.25B
FY2023 (FY) 2024-03-31 $2.87B $513.0M $717.9M $588.6M $5.66B $1.32B

3. WMS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is WMS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. (NYSE: WMS) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $138.99 (+2.63% 1D, market cap $10.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, WMS ranks #127 in composite RQD confidence.

How does WMS compare to AVY and REYN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Containers/Packaging), WMS carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.0x, gross margin of 38.3%, and ROIC of 22.3%. By comparison, AVY (Avery Dennison Corporation) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 20.1x, ROIC 17.4%, cap $13.81B) and REYN (Reynolds Consumer Products Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 16.5x, ROIC 13.4%, cap $4.98B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SON leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while WMS leads on capital efficiency (22.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for WMS?

Per WMS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0001604028), Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. generated $3.05B in revenue (+5.0% YoY), $429.0M in net income, and $569.3M in free cash flow against $4.14B in total assets and $1.28B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (38.3% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is WMS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

WMS last traded at $138.99 (+2.63% on volume of 672,713 shares), positioning the stock +6.55% above its 50-day simple moving average ($130.44) and -2.95% below its 200-day simple moving average ($143.21). Across its 52-week range of $122.84 to $179.32, WMS sits at the 28.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.8% ($130.93 to $147.05).

Direct Sub-Reports: WMS RQD Cockpit WMS 12M Forecast WMS Earnings & Move WMS Dividends & DRIP WMS Insiders & 13F WMS Whale Options WMS Profit Sankey WMS News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 71/100 (B-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

WMS — Advanced Drainage Systems Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-03-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. (WMS) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 71/100, corresponding to a B- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $138.99 (+2.63% 1D, market capitalization $10.21B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (19/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 22.3%, gross margin of 38.3%, operating margin of 20.3%, and free cash flow yield of 5.53%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.13x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 5.15, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.66x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Containers/Packaging industry. The company reported FY 2025 revenue of $3.05B. — for detailed product lines, customer segments, or the specific revenue mechanics.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-03-31), Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. (WMS) reported $3.05B in annual revenue (up from $2.90B in FY2024, +5.0% YoY) and $429.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.87B revenue, $513.0M net income) through FY2025, WMS scaled operating cash flow to $819.1M and free cash flow to $569.3M, backed by $4.14B in total assets against $1.28B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B- • RQD 71/100): Strong cash generator (38.3% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 19/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $122.84 – $179.32 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 24.0x trailing P/E and 12.7x EV/EBITDA against 20.3% operating margins and a 1.13x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no upstream or downstream links and no proprietary signals, so upstream/downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the provided sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can WMS sustain or expand its 20.3% operating margin and 22.3% ROIC against Containers/Packaging peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.05B and free cash flow of $569.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.28B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is WMS's 22.3x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.13x)?

WMS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. (WMS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to WMS Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

WMS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $138.99?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON WMS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on WMS:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $162.52 (+20.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Strong cash engine with ROIC of 22.3% and a 19/20 fundamental pillar score, supported by an Altman Z-Score of 5.15.

Long WMS at $135.43 targeting $162.52. Strong cash engine with ROIC of 22.3% and a 19/20 fundamental pillar score, supported by an Altman Z-Score of 5.15.. Institutional whale score is 10/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $122.84 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Shorting a 10/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $135.43 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $108.34 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $135.43

Macro regime fit scores only 8/20 with beta of 1.13, and net income has declined from $513.0M to $429.0M over three years while the sto

I respect the product at Advanced Drainage Systems Inc., but the stock at $135.43 is a different story. Macro regime fit scores only 8/20 with beta of 1.13, and net income has declined from $513.0M to $429.0M over three years while the stock trades near its 52-week low.. FCF yield is 5.53% and RQD sits at 71/100 (B-) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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