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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / WLFC / forecast
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Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$43.96 +5.67% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.33

Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $949.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is WLFC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Willis Lease Finance Corporation (NASDAQ: WLFC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $43.96 (+5.67% 1D, market cap $949.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, WLFC ranks #656 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does WLFC compare to ADSE and DSGR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Industrial Specialties), WLFC carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.8%. By comparison, ADSE (ADS-TEC ENERGY PLC) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $738.5M) and DSGR (Distribution Solutions Group Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 4.9%, cap $1.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WLFC leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while WLFC leads on capital efficiency (12.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for WLFC?
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Per WLFC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001018164), Willis Lease Finance Corporation generated $730.2M in revenue (+28.3% YoY), $114.0M in net income, and $252.2M in free cash flow against $3.94B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.32 (+0.83%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 34.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510045
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D-
Cash (11)Whales (5)SEC (10)Macro (6)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.8% Base Target
$86 Bull$41 Base$32 Bear
📬 FREE WLFC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for WLFC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY WLFC SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 34.5% FCF Margin ($252.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
37
Grade E$39.19-5.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
40
Grade D$36.96+7.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
42
Grade D$39.72+10.7% Next Q
Current
45
Grade D$43.96-6.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (37) → D (45)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a WLFC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While WLFC currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($47.77) and Max Pain ($46.16) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $85.62.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $WLFC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “WLFC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your WLFC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $43.96: 227.5 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $32.28
$7,343
$-2,657 (-26.6%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $41.39
$9,415
$-585 (-5.8%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $85.62
$19,477
+$9,477 (+94.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$4374%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$8069%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$3758%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring WLFC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of WLFC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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WLFC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -32.67%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $41.86H $43.96L $41.60C $43.96VOL 192.2K
RES: $68.16SUP: $34.20SMA50: $47.77SMA200: $60.17
$84.70$71.61$58.51$45.42$32.33RES $68.16SUP $34.20$43.962026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

WLFC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 WLFC Butterfly Map → + Track WLFC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-4.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +28.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on WLFC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for WLFC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for WLFC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (WLFC)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #656 of 1009 ⚔️ ADSE vs WLFC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (WLFC vs. ADSE, DSGR, PII, ASLE)

Industry: Industrial Specialties (55 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) ranks #656 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #510 by equity capitalization ($949.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WLFC leads on earnings valuation at 8.4x trailing P/E, while WLFC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.8% ROIC and — gross margin. DSGR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with WLFC at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
WLFC ACTIVE
Willis Lease Finance Corporation
D 45/100 8.4x — 12.8% +5.67% $949.0M Benchmark Subject
ADSE
ADS-TEC ENERGY PLC
D 48/100 — — — -10.38% $738.5M /adse-vs-wlfc →
DSGR
Distribution Solutions Group Inc.
C- 60/100 — 33.4% 4.9% +0.06% $1.62B /dsgr-vs-wlfc →
PII
Polaris Inc.
D- 39/100 — 19.1% -11.5% +5.32% $3.38B /pii-vs-wlfc →
ASLE
AerSale Corporation
E 30/100 26.1x 31.5% 2.3% +0.62% $230.5M /asle-vs-wlfc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001018164 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) reported GAAP revenue of $730.2M (+28.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $569.2M , and +74.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $114.0M, operating cash flow of $283.2M, and free cash flow of $252.2M (-6.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, WLFC closed FY2025 with $3.94B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.66, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $730.2M $114.0M $283.2M $252.2M $3.94B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $569.2M $109.0M $284.4M $268.8M $3.30B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $418.6M $44.0M $229.7M $229.7M — —

3. WLFC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is WLFC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Willis Lease Finance Corporation (NASDAQ: WLFC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $43.96 (+5.67% 1D, market cap $949.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, WLFC ranks #656 in composite RQD confidence.

How does WLFC compare to ADSE and DSGR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Industrial Specialties), WLFC carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.8%. By comparison, ADSE (ADS-TEC ENERGY PLC) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $738.5M) and DSGR (Distribution Solutions Group Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 4.9%, cap $1.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WLFC leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while WLFC leads on capital efficiency (12.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for WLFC?

Per WLFC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001018164), Willis Lease Finance Corporation generated $730.2M in revenue (+28.3% YoY), $114.0M in net income, and $252.2M in free cash flow against $3.94B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is WLFC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

WLFC last traded at $43.96 (+5.67% on volume of 262,157 shares), positioning the stock -7.98% below its 50-day simple moving average ($47.77) and -26.94% below its 200-day simple moving average ($60.17). Across its 52-week range of $36.39 to $81.54, WLFC sits at the 16.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.7% ($39.26 to $48.66).

Direct Sub-Reports: WLFC RQD Cockpit WLFC 12M Forecast WLFC Earnings & Move WLFC Dividends & DRIP WLFC Insiders & 13F WLFC Whale Options WLFC Profit Sankey WLFC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 45/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

WLFC — Willis Lease Finance Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 45/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $43.96 (+5.67% 1D, market capitalization $949.0M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 14.3%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.66, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Revenue, operating income, and cash flow figures are available in the SEC financials section but are not tied to specific business lines in the source data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) reported $730.2M in annual revenue (up from $569.2M in FY2024, +28.3% YoY) and $114.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($418.6M revenue, $44.0M net income) through FY2025, WLFC scaled operating cash flow to $283.2M and free cash flow to $252.2M, backed by $3.94B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 45/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $36.39 – $81.54 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 8.4x trailing P/E and 7.2x EV/EBITDA against 14.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Industrial Specialties (Consumer Discretionary), WLFC carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can WLFC sustain or expand its 14.3% operating margin and 12.8% ROIC against Industrial Specialties peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $730.2M and free cash flow of $252.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is WLFC's 7.1x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

WLFC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to WLFC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

WLFC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $43.96?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON WLFC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on WLFC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $49.50 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Trades at 8.4x trailing earnings and 7.1x forward earnings with FY 2025 FCF of $252.2M against a $955.0M market cap.

Don't sleep on WLFC's setup in Consumer Discretionary. Trades at 8.4x trailing earnings and 7.1x forward earnings with FY 2025 FCF of $252.2M against a $955.0M market cap.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (45/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Shorting a 5/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $41.60 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $34.94 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $41.60

Altman Z of 0.66 and a 5/20 whale flow pillar score point to distress signals and weak institutional support.

I respect the product at Willis Lease Finance Corporation, but the stock at $41.60 is a different story. Altman Z of 0.66 and a 5/20 whale flow pillar score point to distress signals and weak institutional support.. FCF yield is 0.0% and RQD sits at 45/100 (D) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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