Yahoo Finance report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why UPBD Stock surged +3.60% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (48% profit margin, 31% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is UPBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Upbound Group Inc. (NASDAQ: UPBD) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $20.70 (+3.60% 1D, market cap $1.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, UPBD ranks #160 in composite RQD confidence.
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does UPBD compare to PRG and ARLO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), UPBD carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.0x, gross margin of 48.4%, and ROIC of 30.7%. By comparison, PRG (PROG Holdings Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 8.9x, ROIC 37.3%, cap $1.36B) and ARLO (Arlo Technologies Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 106.3x, ROIC 6.0%, cap $1.56B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRG leads on earnings multiple (8.9x) while PRG leads on capital efficiency (37.3% ROIC).
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UPBD?
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Per UPBD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000933036), Upbound Group Inc. generated $4.70B in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $73.0M in net income, and $238.7M in free cash flow against $3.28B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (48% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 5.1% FCF Margin ($238.7M FCF) & 48.4% Gross Margin
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (73.3) create a -11 pt regime headwind
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the UPBD Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, UPBD faces multiple-compression risk if 16.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($17.29) or 200D SMA ($18.88) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($21.82) toward Bear Floor ($16.97).
Why UPBD Stock surged +3.60% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) surged +3.60% to $20.70, trading at 64% of its 52-week range ($14.98 – $23.98). High-quality cash engine (48% profit margin, 31% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 64% of its 52-week range ($14.98 – $23.98) with RSI-14 at 73.3 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±10.8% around $20.70 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B- (Buy) backed by 48.4% gross margin and $238.7M annual free cash flow.
ChartMill report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Moomoo report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Kalkine report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investment management company First Pacific Advisors recently released its “FPA Queens Road Small Cap Value Fund” Q3 2026 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The Fund returned -7.62% in the thir
Upbound Group reported third quarter 2026 results with revenue of US$1.15b, net income of US$34.27 million and diluted EPS from continuing operations of US$0.58, while also issuing fourth quarter and full year revenue gu
See here for an analysis of 16 safe small-cap high-yield dividend dogs with strong cash flow and top picks projected to gain up to 62% by 2027.
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (UPBD Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
UPBD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +8.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UPBD today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UPBD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UPBD)
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (UPBD vs. PRG, ARLO, KPLT, CTOS)
Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) ranks #160 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #487 by equity capitalization ($1.21B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRG leads on earnings valuation at 8.9x trailing P/E, while PRG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 37.3% ROIC and — gross margin. UPBD currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 70/100 (B-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPBD
ACTIVE
Upbound Group Inc. | B- | 70/100 | 16.0x | 48.4% | 30.7% | +3.60% | $1.21B | Benchmark Subject |
| PRG PROG Holdings Inc. | C+ | 69/100 | 8.9x | — | 37.3% | +3.79% | $1.36B | /prg-vs-upbd → |
| ARLO Arlo Technologies Inc. | C | 63/100 | 106.3x | 44.0% | 6.0% | -1.90% | $1.56B | /arlo-vs-upbd → |
| KPLT Katapult Holdings Inc. | D | 47/100 | — | 17.7% | -0.8% | -17.09% | $880.7M | /kplt-vs-upbd → |
| CTOS Custom Truck One Source Inc. | C- | 60/100 | — | 28.5% | 4.1% | -2.93% | $2.41B | /ctos-vs-upbd → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000933036In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) reported GAAP revenue of $4.70B (+8.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.32B , and +17.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $73.0M, operating cash flow of $305.6M, and free cash flow of $238.7M (+392.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, UPBD closed FY2025 with $3.28B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.36, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $4.70B | $73.0M | $305.6M | $238.7M | $3.28B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $4.32B | $124.0M | $104.7M | $48.4M | $2.65B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $3.99B | -$5.0M | $200.3M | $200.3M | — | — |
3. UPBD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs UPBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Upbound Group Inc. (NASDAQ: UPBD) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $20.70 (+3.60% 1D, market cap $1.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, UPBD ranks #160 in composite RQD confidence.
How does UPBD compare to PRG and ARLO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), UPBD carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.0x, gross margin of 48.4%, and ROIC of 30.7%. By comparison, PRG (PROG Holdings Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 8.9x, ROIC 37.3%, cap $1.36B) and ARLO (Arlo Technologies Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 106.3x, ROIC 6.0%, cap $1.56B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRG leads on earnings multiple (8.9x) while PRG leads on capital efficiency (37.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UPBD?
Per UPBD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000933036), Upbound Group Inc. generated $4.70B in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $73.0M in net income, and $238.7M in free cash flow against $3.28B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (48% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is UPBD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
UPBD last traded at $20.70 (+3.60% on volume of 2,609,988 shares), positioning the stock +19.72% above its 50-day simple moving average ($17.29) and +9.64% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.88). Across its 52-week range of $14.98 to $23.98, UPBD sits at the 63.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 73.3 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.8% ($18.46 to $22.94).
UPBD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is UPBD stock moving today?
Why UPBD Stock surged +3.60% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. High-quality cash engine (48% profit margin, 31% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
UPBD — Upbound Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Per the Roarable RQD rating, UPBD scores 70 out of 100, a letter grade of B-, with the verdict label "Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation." The fundamental cash engine pillar scores 18 of 20, supported by ROIC of 30.7% and an FCF yield of 20.49%; for an investor, this is the strongest part of the thesis, indicating high capital efficiency relative to the stock's market value. The whale 13F flow pillar scores 13 of 20, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning, a moderate signal rather than a dominant one. The insider conviction pillar scores 18 of 20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, which is the second-strongest factor and suggests insiders are acquiring rather than selling. The macro regime fit pillar scores 9 of 20 with a beta of 1.0 and noted sector sensitivity, making this the weakest pillar and a reminder that the stock's performance is tied to broader market and sector conditions. The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 12 of 20, with an Altman Z of 2.36, a Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5, indicating a serviceable but not pristine balance sheet. Upside drivers in this profile are the cash-generation and insider-flow pillars; valuation tradeoffs are visible in a low EV/EBITDA of 3.7 alongside a thin 1.6% net margin, meaning cash returns are strong but accounting profitability is narrow; and the sector-sensitivity and balance-sheet pillars cap the score. This brief is educational and not personalized financial advice.
Snapshot
Financial Trend
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $4695.1M | $223.3M | $73.0M | N/A | $238.7M | $120.5M | N/A |
| FY 2024 | $4320.6M | $291.6M | $124.0M | N/A | $48.4M | $60.9M | N/A |
| FY 2023 | $3992.4M | $162.9M | $-5.0M | N/A | $200.3M | N/A | N/A |
Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $3992.4M in FY 2023 to $4695.1M in FY 2025, while net income moved from $-5.0M to $73.0M, though FY 2025 net income fell from $124.0M in FY 2024. Current margins per the market data are a 48.4% gross margin, 4.8% operating margin, and 1.6% net margin, with ROIC of 30.7%. The Altman Z-Score of 2.36 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 are cited in the Roarable RQD rating, alongside Debt/Equity of 0.5. Debt and EPS for the reported periods are not available in source data.
Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis
- Risk Watch (RED): A Yahoo Finance headline states UPBD stock "Looks Below Fair Value Following Its 57% Fall," tagged as RISK WATCH.
- Catalyst (GREEN): A ChartMill headline reports a Q3 earnings beat with strong cash flow offsetting in-line revenue, tagged as CATALYST.
- Market Wire (YELLOW): Moomoo reports the Q3 2026 earnings release; Yahoo Finance reports the company topped Q3 earnings and revenue estimates; Simply Wall St covers a stock forecast; Stock Titan reports director Glenn P. Marino acquired 1,684 stock units, bringing holdings to 70,821 units.
- Proprietary signals: None per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph.
Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples
Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain is NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are not available in source data. The profile's sector sensitivity, referenced in the RQD macro regime pillar, is the only sector-level context provided.
Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership
Analyst data is not available in source data. Holder data (13F, SEC Form 4 insider detail, and Congressional trades) is not available in source data beyond the RQD insider-conviction pillar score and the Stock Titan director acquisition headline noted above.
Open Questions
- What are the company's products, customers, and revenue drivers behind the reported revenue growth?
- What explains the drop in FY 2025 net income versus FY 2024 despite higher revenue?
- What is the company's EPS and debt level for each reported period?
- What is the size and timing of the institutional and insider positions behind the 13F and Form 4 signals?
- What catalyst produced the 18.16% price change, and does it reflect the earnings beat or the "57% fall" referenced in the risk headline?
UPBD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
ChartMill report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Moomoo report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Simply Wall St report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Kalkine report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investment management company First Pacific Advisors recently released its “FPA Queens Road Small Cap Value Fund” Q3 2026 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The Fund returned -7.62% in the thir
UPBD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $20.70?
🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is UPBD (B- • RQD 70/100) a Buy at $19.98?
Welcome to the UPBD (Upbound Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 70/100 (Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation) in Diversified Commercial Services. Bulls point to capital efficiency (30.7% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Pump the brakes on UPBD — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on UPBD, but look at what you are paying: 16.0x trailing P/E with 48.4% gross margins. Unless Upbound Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
UPBD cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on UPBD, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Diversified Commercial Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $19.98 (52-wk range $14.98 - $23.98), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.