Does UPBD pay a dividend and is it safe?

Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) offers a 7.54% cash dividend yield ($1.72 annualized) and 9.34% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as FORTRESS PAYOUT.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / UPBD / dividends

PRG (69) ARLO (63) KPLT (47) CTOS (60) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$22.84 +10.34% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.32

Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (48.4% gross margin, 31% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $1.21B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on UPBD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is UPBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Upbound Group Inc. (NASDAQ: UPBD) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $22.84 (+10.34% 1D, market cap $1.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, UPBD ranks #158 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does UPBD compare to PRG and ARLO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), UPBD carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.0x, gross margin of 48.4%, and ROIC of 30.7%. By comparison, PRG (PROG Holdings Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 8.9x, ROIC 37.3%, cap $1.36B) and ARLO (Arlo Technologies Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 106.3x, ROIC 6.0%, cap $1.56B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRG leads on earnings multiple (8.9x) while PRG leads on capital efficiency (37.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UPBD?

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Per UPBD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000933036), Upbound Group Inc. generated $4.70B in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $73.0M in net income, and $238.7M in free cash flow against $3.28B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (48.4% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.32 (+2.10%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 5.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UPBD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY UPBD SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 5.1% FCF Margin ($238.7M FCF) & 48.4% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (73.3) create a -11 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$15.41+5.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$16.32+3.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$16.95+34.7% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$22.84+6.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (62) → B- (70)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the UPBD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, UPBD faces multiple-compression risk if 16.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($17.29) or 200D SMA ($18.88) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($24.07) toward Bear Floor ($18.73).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UPBD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “UPBD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

9.34% Total Yield

7.54% Cash ($1.72/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

88/100 • FORTRESS PAYOUT

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

23.9% of FCF

8 consecutive years of payout growth

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (14.1% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $37,399

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $3,493/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$11.4K

Yr 1

$13.0K

Yr 2

$14.9K

Yr 3

$16.9K

Yr 4

$19.3K

Yr 5

$22.1K

Yr 6

$25.2K

Yr 7

$28.7K

Yr 8

$32.8K

Yr 9

$37.4K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Cash-Flow & Quality Compounder Desk

Cash-Fortress Compounders: Auditing Free Cash Flow & Yield Safety in UPBD & A-Rated Leaders

✓12-month Bull/Base/Bear fair-value walkthrough on UPBD and its top sector peer
✓Top Roarable A-Rated cash compounders with verified executive & 13F accumulation
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

UPBD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.59%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-11-03O $19.98H $22.84L $19.98C $22.84VOL 2.61M

RES: $19.94SUP: $14.37SMA50: $17.29SMA200: $18.88

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UPBD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 UPBD Butterfly Map → + Track UPBD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

8.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UPBD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UPBD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UPBD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UPBD)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #158 of 1009 ⚔️ PRG vs UPBD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (UPBD vs. PRG, ARLO, KPLT, CTOS)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) ranks #158 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #485 by equity capitalization ($1.21B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRG leads on earnings valuation at 8.9x trailing P/E, while PRG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 37.3% ROIC and — gross margin. UPBD currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
UPBD ACTIVE Upbound Group Inc.	B-	70/100	16.0x	48.4%	30.7%	+10.34%	$1.21B	Benchmark Subject
PRG PROG Holdings Inc.	C+	69/100	8.9x	—	37.3%	+9.90%	$1.36B	/prg-vs-upbd →
ARLO Arlo Technologies Inc.	C	63/100	106.3x	44.0%	6.0%	-2.35%	$1.56B	/arlo-vs-upbd →
KPLT Katapult Holdings Inc.	D	47/100	—	17.7%	-0.8%	+6.46%	$880.7M	/kplt-vs-upbd →
CTOS Custom Truck One Source Inc.	C-	60/100	—	28.5%	4.1%	+0.28%	$2.41B	/ctos-vs-upbd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000933036 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) reported GAAP revenue of $4.70B (+8.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.32B , and +17.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $73.0M, operating cash flow of $305.6M, and free cash flow of $238.7M (+392.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, UPBD closed FY2025 with $3.28B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.36, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$4.70B	$73.0M	$305.6M	$238.7M	$3.28B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$4.32B	$124.0M	$104.7M	$48.4M	$2.65B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$3.99B	-$5.0M	$200.3M	$200.3M	—	—

3. UPBD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UPBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does UPBD compare to PRG and ARLO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UPBD?

Where is UPBD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UPBD last traded at $22.84 (+10.34% on volume of 2,205,573 shares), positioning the stock +32.10% above its 50-day simple moving average ($17.29) and +20.97% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.88). Across its 52-week range of $14.98 to $23.98, UPBD sits at the 87.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 73.3 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.8% ($20.37 to $25.31).

Direct Sub-Reports: UPBD RQD Cockpit UPBD 12M Forecast UPBD Earnings & Move UPBD Dividends & DRIP UPBD Insiders & 13F UPBD Whale Options UPBD Profit Sankey UPBD News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 70/100 (B-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

UPBD — Upbound Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 70/100, corresponding to a B- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $22.84 (+10.34% 1D, market capitalization $1.21B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (18/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 30.7%, gross margin of 48.4%, operating margin of 4.8%, and free cash flow yield of 20.49%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.36, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Diversified Commercial Services industry (Consumer Discretionary sector) with an equity market capitalization of $1.21B. The business operates with a gross margin of 48.4%, an operating margin of 4.8%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 30.7% (free cash flow yield of 20.49%). Within the Diversified Commercial Services peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) reported $4.70B in annual revenue (up from $4.32B in FY2024, +8.7% YoY) and $73.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($3.99B revenue, -$5.0M net income) through FY2025, UPBD scaled operating cash flow to $305.6M and free cash flow to $238.7M, backed by $3.28B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (B- • RQD 70/100): Strong cash generator (48.4% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 18/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $14.98 – $23.98 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 16.0x trailing P/E and 3.7x EV/EBITDA against 4.8% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The profile's sector sensitivity, referenced in the RQD macro regime pillar, is the only sector-level context provided.

Key Question #1: Can UPBD sustain or expand its 4.8% operating margin and 30.7% ROIC against Diversified Commercial Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $4.70B and free cash flow of $238.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is UPBD's 14.9x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

UPBD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to UPBD Debate Forum (3) ↓

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Upbound Group (UPBD) Stock Looks Below Fair Value Following Its 57% Fall

Yahoo Finance report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST ChartMill • 1d ago

Upbound Group (NASDAQ:UPBD) Q3 Earnings Beat and Strong Cash Flow Offset In-Line Revenue

ChartMill report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Moomoo • 1d ago

UPBOUND ($UPBD) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings

Moomoo report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Upbound Group (UPBD) Tops Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Yahoo Finance report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Upbound Group (NasdaqGS:UPBD) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions

Simply Wall St report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

After acquiring 1,684 stock units, Upbound Group (UPBD) director Glenn P. Marino holds 70,821 units.

Stock Titan report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Kalkine • 1d ago

Upbound Group (NASDAQ:UPBD) Q3 2026 Results Exceed Guidance; Brigit Revenue Up 37%

Kalkine report covering Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 19h ago

FPA Queens Road Small Cap Value Fund Remains Cautious About Adding to Upbound Group (UPBD)

Investment management company First Pacific Advisors recently released its “FPA Queens Road Small Cap Value Fund” Q3 2026 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The Fund returned -7.62% in the thir

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

UPBD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $22.84?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON UPBD 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $24.01 (+16.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Cash generation is strong, with ROIC of 30.7% and an FCF yield of 20.49% alongside insider-conviction scoring 18 of 20.

Picked up a starter position in UPBD in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $20.70. Cash generation is strong, with ROIC of 30.7% and an FCF yield of 20.49% alongside insider-conviction scoring 18 of 20.. Trading inside a $14.98–$23.98 52-week range with 20.49% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Diversified Commercial Services multiples expand this quarter.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Shorting a 13/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $20.70 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $17.18 (-17.0%)

Spot @ $20.70

Accounting profitability is thin with a 1.6% net margin and FY 2025 net income down from FY 2024, and macro sensitivity scores only 9 o

Fading this rally in UPBD at $20.70. Accounting profitability is thin with a 1.6% net margin and FY 2025 net income down from FY 2024, and macro sensitivity scores only 9 of 20.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $20.70 (52-wk range $14.98–$23.98), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.