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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / UAL / earnings
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United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±8.6% Move

$109.24 +4.80% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $109.98

United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $33.87B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on UAL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is UAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: UAL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $109.24 (+4.80% 1D, market cap $33.87B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, UAL ranks #405 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does UAL compare to RYAAY and DAL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), UAL carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.0%. By comparison, RYAAY (Ryanair Holdings plc) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $28.27B) and DAL (Delta Air Lines Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 10.7x, ROIC 16.2%, cap $52.73B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UAL leads on earnings multiple (10.2x) while DAL leads on capital efficiency (16.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UAL?
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Per UAL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000100517), United Airlines Holdings Inc. generated $59.07B in revenue (+3.5% YoY), $3.35B in net income, and $5.77B in free cash flow against $76.45B in total assets and $17.17B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $109.97 (+0.67%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 9.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510056
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D-
Cash (12)Whales (10)SEC (10)Macro (7)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target
$146 Bull$108 Base$84 Bear
📬 FREE UAL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UAL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY UAL SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9.8% FCF Margin ($5.77B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (48.9) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
48
Grade D$98.96+2.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$101.67+1.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$103.43+5.6% Next Q
Current
56
Grade D+$109.24-0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the UAL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, UAL faces multiple-compression risk if 10.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($107.06) or 200D SMA ($107.94) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($108.26) toward Bear Floor ($84.44).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UAL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “UAL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±8.6% Swing Band

±$9.39 Expected Swing
$99.85 (-8.6%)Spot $109.24$118.63 (+8.6%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

UAL Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 56/100

Trailing EPS: $10.32 • YoY Revenue Growth: 3.5%

Model Bullish Setup (56/100)Model Risk Weight (44/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$59.07B$3.35B$5.77B52%
FY 20242024-12-31$57.06B$3.15B$6.88B52%
FY 20232023-12-31$53.72B$2.62B$4.49B52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring UAL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of UAL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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UAL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +21.28%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $105.2H $109.2L $104.2C $109.2VOL 4.95M
RES: $126.7SUP: $91.43SMA50: $107.1SMA200: $107.9
$142.3$127.7$113.1$98.43$83.80RES $126.7SUP $91.43$109.22026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UAL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 UAL Butterfly Map → + Track UAL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-0.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UAL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UAL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UAL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UAL)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #405 of 1009 ⚔️ RYAAY vs UAL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (UAL vs. RYAAY, DAL, LUV, FDXF)

Industry: Air Freight/Delivery Services (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) ranks #405 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #62 by equity capitalization ($33.87B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UAL leads on earnings valuation at 10.2x trailing P/E, while DAL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.2% ROIC and — gross margin. DAL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with UAL at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
UAL ACTIVE
United Airlines Holdings Inc.
D+ 56/100 10.2x — 14.0% +4.80% $33.87B Benchmark Subject
RYAAY
Ryanair Holdings plc
D+ 54/100 32.8x — 9.9% +2.92% $28.27B /ryaay-vs-ual →
DAL
Delta Air Lines Inc.
C+ 68/100 10.7x — 16.2% +4.08% $52.73B /dal-vs-ual →
LUV
Southwest Airlines Company
D 50/100 48.5x — 3.2% +3.61% $20.77B /luv-vs-ual →
FDXF
FedEx Freight Holding Company Inc.
D 51/100 25.0x — 8.3% +4.61% $18.85B /fdxf-vs-ual →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000100517 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) reported GAAP revenue of $59.07B (+3.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $57.06B , and +10.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $3.35B, operating cash flow of $8.43B, and free cash flow of $5.77B (-16.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, UAL closed FY2025 with $76.45B in total assets against $17.17B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.57, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $59.07B $3.35B $8.43B $5.77B $76.45B $17.17B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $57.06B $3.15B $9.45B $6.88B $74.08B $21.68B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $53.72B $2.62B $6.91B $4.49B $64.46B $15.08B

3. UAL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: UAL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $109.24 (+4.80% 1D, market cap $33.87B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, UAL ranks #405 in composite RQD confidence.

How does UAL compare to RYAAY and DAL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), UAL carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.0%. By comparison, RYAAY (Ryanair Holdings plc) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $28.27B) and DAL (Delta Air Lines Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 10.7x, ROIC 16.2%, cap $52.73B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UAL leads on earnings multiple (10.2x) while DAL leads on capital efficiency (16.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UAL?

Per UAL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000100517), United Airlines Holdings Inc. generated $59.07B in revenue (+3.5% YoY), $3.35B in net income, and $5.77B in free cash flow against $76.45B in total assets and $17.17B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is UAL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UAL last traded at $109.24 (+4.80% on volume of 6,635,293 shares), positioning the stock +2.04% above its 50-day simple moving average ($107.06) and +1.20% above its 200-day simple moving average ($107.94). Across its 52-week range of $84.64 to $138.77, UAL sits at the 45.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.6% ($99.85 to $118.63).

Direct Sub-Reports: UAL RQD Cockpit UAL 12M Forecast UAL Earnings & Move UAL Dividends & DRIP UAL Insiders & 13F UAL Whale Options UAL Profit Sankey UAL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

UAL — United Airlines Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $109.24 (+4.80% 1D, market capitalization $33.87B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 14.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 8.0%, and free cash flow yield of 16.89%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 0.90x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.57, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.12x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

United Airlines Holdings Inc. Is listed on NASDAQ under the ticker UAL and is classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Air Freight/Delivery Services industry per the company profile. The profile lists a market capitalization of $34.2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) reported $59.07B in annual revenue (up from $57.06B in FY2024, +3.5% YoY) and $3.35B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($53.72B revenue, $2.62B net income) through FY2025, UAL scaled operating cash flow to $8.43B and free cash flow to $5.77B, backed by $76.45B in total assets against $17.17B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 16.89% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $84.64 – $138.77 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 10.2x trailing P/E and 6.5x EV/EBITDA against 8.0% operating margins and a 0.90x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector-level context is the Consumer Discretionary classification and the Air Freight/Delivery Services industry. The CNBC headline's reference to fuel prices is the one cost-side ripple mentioned in the source data; the source does not quantify its effect.

  • Key Question #1: Can UAL sustain or expand its 8.0% operating margin and 14.0% ROIC against Air Freight/Delivery Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $59.07B and free cash flow of $5.77B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $17.17B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is UAL's 9.5x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.90x)?

UAL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to UAL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

UAL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $109.24?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON UAL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on UAL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $120.92 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider cluster flow scores 17 of 20 and the stock trades at a 10.2 P/E (TTM) with a 16.89% FCF yield.

Picked up a starter position in UAL in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $104.24. Insider cluster flow scores 17 of 20 and the stock trades at a 10.2 P/E (TTM) with a 16.89% FCF yield.. Trading inside a $84.64–$138.77 52-week range with 16.89% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Air Freight/Delivery Services multiples expand this quarter.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — UAL's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $89.65 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $104.24

The Altman Z-Score of 1.57 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 weigh the balance sheet at 10 of 20 in the RQD rating.

The Altman Z-Score of 1.57 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 weigh the balance sheet at 10 of 20 in the RQD rating.. Look at the math on UAL: paying 10.2x trailing P/E for 14.0% ROIC and 8.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Air Freight/Delivery Services demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $91.73 before getting long.

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