Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.6% Move

TXRH scores 77 out of 100, graded B+, with the verdict "Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 17/20 (ROIC 28.3%; FCF yield 2.85%), Whale 13F Flow at 13/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 16/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 13/20 (Beta 1.14; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 18/20 (Altman Z 6; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

For a prospective investor, the strongest pillar is the forensic balance sheet, which indicates low financial-distress risk per the reported Altman Z, Piotroski, and leverage figures. The cash engine pillar also scores well on return on invested capital, though the 2.85% FCF yield means the market is pricing the stock at a premium to current free cash flow. The valuation tradeoff is visible in the P/E (TTM) of 29.6 versus a Forward P/E of 27.5, implying expected earnings growth is already reflected in the price. Institutional and macro pillars score lower (13/20 each), suggesting less confirmation from 13F positioning and a beta above 1.0, meaning the stock has historically amplified market moves. Upside drivers in the data are margin resilience and cash generation; downside sensitivities are a premium multiple and sector-level macro exposure. This is an analytical summary, not personalized advice.

Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) is a NASDAQ-listed company in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Restaurants industry,. It reports revenue of $5.88B for FY 2025, indicating a restaurant-based revenue model. Revenue customers, menu mix, and franchise structure are —

Per the market data, operating margin is 8.1%, net margin is 6.9%, and gross margin is 0%. ROIC is 28.3%. Per the RQD forensic pillar, Altman Z is 6 and Piotroski F is 7/9, with Debt/Equity at 0.5. Reported debt declines from $1.55B in FY 2023 to — in FY 2025, while cash falls from $245.2M to $134.7M over the same period. Net income declined from $433.6M in FY 2024 to $405.6M in FY 2025.

• 🐂 Primary Bull Case: Forensic balance sheet scores 18/20 with Altman Z 6, Piotroski F 7/9, and Debt/Equity 0.5, alongside ROIC of 28.3%. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 17/20 (ROIC 28.3%, FCF yield 2.85%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $153.83 – $216.30 52-week range.
• 🐻 Primary Bear Case: A Mizuho price-target cut citing a sales slowdown arrives while the stock trades at 29.6x trailing P/E and a 2.85% FCF yield. Investors must weigh 29.6x trailing P/E and 14.8x EV/EBITDA against 8.1% operating margins and a 1.14 macro beta if sector demand softens.

Upstream suppliers, downstream dependencies, and sector correlations are — For a prospective investor, the notable second-order watch item is the sales slowdown cited in the Mizuho price-target cut, since restaurant demand is the revenue driver. Consumer Discretionary sector sensitivity is reflected only through the beta of 1.14 in the RQD macro pillar.

• Key Question #1: What drove the sales slowdown cited by Mizuho, and how large is it relative to FY 2025 revenue of $5.88B?
• Key Question #2: What were the Q2 earnings results that the news wire coverage references?
• Key Question #3: Why did reported debt fall to — in FY 2025 and what is the capital allocation behind the cash decline?