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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / TXRH
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Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$182.52 -0.24% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $182.88

Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 76/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 28% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $11.98B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TXRH Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TXRH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $182.52 (-0.24% 1D, market cap $11.98B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TXRH ranks #51 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TXRH compare to ARMK and YUMC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), TXRH carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 29.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 28.3%. By comparison, ARMK (Aramark) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 45.2x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $14.23B) and YUMC (Yum China Holdings Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 16.7x, ROIC 14.9%, cap $15.68B). Among the 5-stock peer group, YUMC leads on earnings multiple (16.7x) while EAT leads on capital efficiency (53.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TXRH?
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Per TXRH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-30, CIK 0001289460), Texas Roadhouse Inc. generated $5.88B in revenue (+9.4% YoY), $405.6M in net income, and $342.1M in free cash flow against $3.55B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $182.89 (+0.20%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 5.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 76/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 11% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510076
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B
Cash (17)Whales (13)SEC (18)Macro (12)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+8.1% Base Target
$233 Bull$197 Base$150 Bear
📬 FREE TXRH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TXRH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (76/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TXRH SCORES 76/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 5.8% FCF Margin ($342.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (64.8) create a -8 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
68
Grade B-$166.64+0.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
71
Grade B$167.82+4.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
73
Grade B$174.75+4.4% Next Q
Current
76
Grade B+$182.52+7.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (68) → B+ (76)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TXRH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 76/100 (B+) score, TXRH faces multiple-compression risk if 29.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($172.90) or 200D SMA ($178.65) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($197.30) toward Bear Floor ($149.67).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TXRH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TXRH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 76%NO 24%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
64.830 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
6.00>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE46% OF RANGE
L: $154$182.52H: $216
1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: A-RQD 17 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: BRQD 30 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on TXRH

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (85)

28.3% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.85% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (90)

Altman-Z 6.00 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BULLISH (68)

29/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TXRH
  • ✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TXRH Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
TXRH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.09%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $183.0H $183.0L $182.5C $182.5VOL 809.1K
RES: $184.0SUP: $143.8SMA50: $172.9SMA200: $178.7
$220.7$202.6$184.4$166.3$148.2RES $184.0SUP $143.8$182.52026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TXRH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TXRH Butterfly Map → + Track TXRH →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
22.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TXRH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TXRH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TXRH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TXRH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #51 of 1009 ⚔️ ARMK vs TXRH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TXRH vs. ARMK, YUMC, EAT, BROS)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) ranks #51 by composite RQD confidence (76/100, grade B+) and #147 by equity capitalization ($11.98B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, YUMC leads on earnings valuation at 16.7x trailing P/E, while EAT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 53.3% ROIC and — gross margin. EAT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 82/100 (A-) compared with TXRH at 76/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TXRH ACTIVE
Texas Roadhouse Inc.
B+ 76/100 29.6x — 28.3% -0.24% $11.98B Benchmark Subject
ARMK
Aramark
C- 60/100 45.2x — 11.4% -3.68% $14.23B /armk-vs-txrh →
YUMC
Yum China Holdings Inc.
B- 71/100 16.7x — 14.9% +1.28% $15.68B /yumc-vs-txrh →
EAT
Brinker International Inc.
A- 82/100 18.8x — 53.3% -3.51% $8.81B /eat-vs-txrh →
BROS
Dutch Bros Inc.
D+ 57/100 96.2x 25.9% 20.7% -2.52% $7.49B /bros-vs-txrh →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-30 • CIK 0001289460 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-30), Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) reported GAAP revenue of $5.88B (+9.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.37B , and +26.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $405.6M, operating cash flow of $730.1M, and free cash flow of $342.1M (-14.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TXRH closed FY2025 with $3.55B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.00, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-30 $5.88B $405.6M $730.1M $342.1M $3.55B $0
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $5.37B $433.6M $753.6M $399.3M $3.19B $817.7M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-26 $4.63B $304.9M $565.0M $356.6M $6.61B $1.55B

3. TXRH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TXRH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Texas Roadhouse Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $182.52 (-0.24% 1D, market cap $11.98B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TXRH ranks #51 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TXRH compare to ARMK and YUMC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), TXRH carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 29.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 28.3%. By comparison, ARMK (Aramark) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 45.2x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $14.23B) and YUMC (Yum China Holdings Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 16.7x, ROIC 14.9%, cap $15.68B). Among the 5-stock peer group, YUMC leads on earnings multiple (16.7x) while EAT leads on capital efficiency (53.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TXRH?

Per TXRH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-30, CIK 0001289460), Texas Roadhouse Inc. generated $5.88B in revenue (+9.4% YoY), $405.6M in net income, and $342.1M in free cash flow against $3.55B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TXRH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TXRH last traded at $182.52 (-0.24% on volume of 809,090 shares), positioning the stock +5.56% above its 50-day simple moving average ($172.90) and +2.17% above its 200-day simple moving average ($178.65). Across its 52-week range of $153.83 to $216.30, TXRH sits at the 45.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.6% ($170.47 to $194.57).

Direct Sub-Reports: TXRH RQD Cockpit TXRH 12M Forecast TXRH Earnings & Move TXRH Dividends & DRIP TXRH Insiders & 13F TXRH Whale Options TXRH Profit Sankey TXRH News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 76/100 (B+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TXRH — Texas Roadhouse Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 76/100, corresponding to a B+ letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $182.52 (-0.24% 1D, market capitalization $11.98B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (17/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 28.3%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 8.1%, and free cash flow yield of 2.85%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.14x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 6.00, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.00x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) is a NASDAQ-listed company in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Restaurants industry,. It reports revenue of $5.88B for FY 2025, indicating a restaurant-based revenue model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-30), Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) reported $5.88B in annual revenue (up from $5.37B in FY2024, +9.4% YoY) and $405.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($4.63B revenue, $304.9M net income) through FY2025, TXRH scaled operating cash flow to $730.1M and free cash flow to $342.1M, backed by $3.55B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B+ • RQD 76/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 17/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $153.83 – $216.30 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 29.6x trailing P/E and 14.8x EV/EBITDA against 8.1% operating margins and a 1.14x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream suppliers, downstream dependencies, and sector correlations are — For a prospective investor, the notable second-order watch item is the sales slowdown cited in the Mizuho price-target cut, since restaurant demand is the revenue driver. Consumer Discretionary sector sensitivity is reflected only through the beta of 1.14 in the RQD macro pillar.

  • Key Question #1: Can TXRH sustain or expand its 8.1% operating margin and 28.3% ROIC against Restaurants peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $5.88B and free cash flow of $342.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TXRH's 27.5x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.14x)?

TXRH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TXRH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TXRH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $182.52?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TXRH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TXRH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $235.45 (+29.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet scores 18/20 with Altman Z 6, Piotroski F 7/9, and Debt/Equity 0.5, alongside ROIC of 28.3%.

The street is overcomplicating Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH). Forensic balance sheet scores 18/20 with Altman Z 6, Piotroski F 7/9, and Debt/Equity 0.5, alongside ROIC of 28.3%.. With an RQD score of 76/100 (B+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 18/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $197.12.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@DeepValue_CFA Agree on the RQD 76/100 quality, though with 1.14 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $182.52 and keeping dry powder in case we test $169.74.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $151.49 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $182.52

A Mizuho price-target cut citing a sales slowdown arrives while the stock trades at 29.6x trailing P/E and a 2.85% FCF yield.

A Mizuho price-target cut citing a sales slowdown arrives while the stock trades at 29.6x trailing P/E and a 2.85% FCF yield.. Look at the math on TXRH: paying 29.6x trailing P/E for 28.3% ROIC and 8.1% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Restaurants demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $160.62 before getting long.

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