What is TW's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

TW's 12-month base price target is $135.18 (range $101.7 to $159.51), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Financials / TW

NMR (56) RJF (63) IBKR (53) LPLA (38) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: Should I buy, hold, or sell TW stock right now?

Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) currently earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy — BUY) with 78/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 14% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

$124.02 +1.21% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $124.59

Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 78/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 14% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $28.45B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TW Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Tradeweb Markets Inc. (NASDAQ: TW) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 78/100 at a spot price of $124.02 (+1.21% 1D, market cap $28.45B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TW ranks #15 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TW compare to NMR and RJF in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), TW carries a Roarable B+ (78/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 34.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.6%. By comparison, NMR (Nomura Holdings Inc ADR) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $27.21B) and RJF (Raymond James Financial Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 14.5x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $30.24B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RJF leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while TW leads on capital efficiency (13.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TW?

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Per TW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001758730), Tradeweb Markets Inc. generated $2.05B in revenue (+18.9% YoY), $812.8M in net income, and $1.13B in free cash flow against $8.19B in total assets and $450.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $124.59 (+0.46%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 54.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 78/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 10% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.6% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (78/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TW SCORES 78/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 54.9% FCF Margin ($1.13B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit14/20 pts (-6 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (66.3) create a -6 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$110.68+8.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$120.01-0.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B+$119.82+3.5% Next Q

Current

Grade B+$124.02+7.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (70) → B+ (78)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TW Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 78/100 (B+) score, TW faces multiple-compression risk if 34.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($109.10) or 200D SMA ($109.41) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($135.18) toward Bear Floor ($101.70).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 78%NO 22%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

66.330 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

9 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE90% OF RANGE

L: $91$124.02H: $128

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: A-RQD 17 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: B+RQD 32 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on TW

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (85)

13.6% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 4.05% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (75)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 9/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (77)

32/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 14/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TW

✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TW Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +10.18%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $118.9H $124.0L $118.9C $124.0VOL 2.78M

RES: $126.3SUP: $103.5SMA50: $109.1SMA200: $109.4

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TW Butterfly Map → + Track TW →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

26.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +18.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TW today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TW)

Financials Rank #15 of 1097 ⚔️ NMR vs TW Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TW vs. NMR, RJF, IBKR, LPLA)

Industry: Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service (64 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) ranks #15 by composite RQD confidence (78/100, grade B+) and #96 by equity capitalization ($28.45B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RJF leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while TW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.6% ROIC and — gross margin. TW currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 78/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TW ACTIVE Tradeweb Markets Inc.	B+	78/100	34.2x	—	13.6%	+1.21%	$28.45B	Benchmark Subject
NMR Nomura Holdings Inc ADR	D+	56/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+2.03%	$27.21B	/nmr-vs-tw →
RJF Raymond James Financial Inc.	C	63/100	14.5x	—	5.9%	+3.23%	$30.24B	/rjf-vs-tw →
IBKR Interactive Brokers Group Inc.	D+	53/100	139.6x	—	0.3%	-2.69%	$34.84B	/ibkr-vs-tw →
LPLA LPL Financial Holdings Inc.	D-	38/100	25.5x	—	8.5%	+5.25%	$22.09B	/lpla-vs-tw →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001758730 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) reported GAAP revenue of $2.05B (+18.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.73B , and +53.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $812.8M, operating cash flow of $1.17B, and free cash flow of $1.13B (+31.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, TW closed FY2025 with $8.19B in total assets against $450.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.05B	$812.8M	$1.17B	$1.13B	$8.19B	$450.1M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.73B	$501.5M	$897.7M	$856.8M	$7.27B	$391.1M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.34B	$364.9M	$746.1M	$685.9M	$15.30B	$3.58B

3. TW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TW compare to NMR and RJF in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TW?

Where is TW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TW last traded at $124.02 (+1.21% on volume of 1,701,586 shares), positioning the stock +13.68% above its 50-day simple moving average ($109.10) and +13.35% above its 200-day simple moving average ($109.41). Across its 52-week range of $91.42 to $127.69, TW sits at the 89.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($118.07 to $129.97).

Direct Sub-Reports: TW RQD Cockpit TW 12M Forecast TW Earnings & Move TW Dividends & DRIP TW Insiders & 13F TW Whale Options TW Profit Sankey TW News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 78/100 (B+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TW — Tradeweb Markets Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 78/100, corresponding to a B+ letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $124.02 (+1.21% 1D, market capitalization $28.45B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (17/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 40.7%, and free cash flow yield of 4.05%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 0.99x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Tradeweb Markets Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under Financials, in the Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service industry. It is a publicly traded US company with a market capitalization of $27.8B. Per the Trumid-related news items, the company is pursuing an acquisition described as expanding its credit capabilities across the bond lifecycle.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) reported $2.05B in annual revenue (up from $1.73B in FY2024, +18.9% YoY) and $812.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.34B revenue, $364.9M net income) through FY2025, TW scaled operating cash flow to $1.17B and free cash flow to $1.13B, backed by $8.19B in total assets against $450.1M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (B+ • RQD 78/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 17/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $91.42 – $127.69 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 34.2x trailing P/E and 30.1x EV/EBITDA against 40.7% operating margins and a 0.99x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be mapped from the source data, and no sector correlation figures are provided beyond the beta of 0.99. The second-order watch item the source does support is the Trumid acquisition: integration of a credit-focused platform into a business already described as multi-asset could shift the revenue and balance-sheet picture in ways the FY 2025 figures do not yet reflect. Debt movement and deal financing are not detailed in the source.

Key Question #1: Can TW sustain or expand its 40.7% operating margin and 13.6% ROIC against Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.05B and free cash flow of $1.13B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $450.1M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is TW's 28.7x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.99x)?

TW Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TW Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 23h ago

Tradeweb Markets (TW) Stock Looks Fully Valued After The Trumid Deal

Yahoo Finance report covering Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Tradeweb • 1d ago

Tradeweb to Acquire Trumid, Expanding Tradeweb’s Credit Capabilities Across the Entire Bond Lifecycle and Further Differentiating its Multi-Asset Class Platform

Tradeweb report covering Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Trefis • 1d ago

8 Green Days In A Row: Tradeweb Markets Stock Is Up 11%

Trefis report covering Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Tradeweb Markets (TW) Stock Cools After Q3 Earnings Strength

Yahoo Finance report covering Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Tradeweb stock rises in volatile trade amid $1.97 billion Trumid deal

Yahoo Finance report covering Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Tradeweb Markets (TW) Could Be 13% Undervalued After Strong Q3 Trading Volumes

Yahoo Finance report covering Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance UK • 1d ago

Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) latest stock news and headlines

Yahoo Finance UK report covering Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Tradeweb Markets (TW) Q3 earnings: what to expect

Yahoo Finance report covering Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TW Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $124.02?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TW 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $143.37 (+17.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Cash-generative franchise with a perfect 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, 4.05% FCF yield, and 13.6% ROIC, supported by revenue growth from $1338

The street is overcomplicating Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW). Cash-generative franchise with a perfect 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, 4.05% FCF yield, and 13.6% ROIC, supported by revenue growth from $1.34B to $2.05B.. With an RQD score of 78/100 (B+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 15/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $132.34.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Shorting a 17/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $122.54 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $91.91 (-25.0%)

Spot @ $122.54

Valuation is demanding at 34.2 P/E (TTM) and 30.1 EV/EBITDA with a 0% dividend yield, and the Trumid deal adds integration and financin

I respect the product at Tradeweb Markets Inc., but the stock at $122.54 is a different story. Valuation is demanding at 34.2 P/E (TTM) and 30.1 EV/EBITDA with a 0% dividend yield, and the Trumid deal adds integration and financing uncertainty.. FCF yield is 4.05% and RQD sits at 78/100 (B+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?