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Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$9.57 +2.03% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.59

Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $27.21B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NMR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NMR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NYSE: NMR) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $9.57 (+2.03% 1D, market cap $27.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, NMR ranks #500 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NMR compare to TW and RJF in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), NMR carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, TW (Tradeweb Markets Inc.) holds a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 34.2x, ROIC 13.6%, cap $28.45B) and RJF (Raymond James Financial Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 14.5x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $30.24B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RJF leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while TW leads on capital efficiency (13.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NMR?
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For Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs and sector rank #500 in Financials, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.59 (+0.18%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 15% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510056
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C-
Cash (11)Whales (9)SEC (15)Macro (9)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target
$11 Bull$9 Base$7 Bear
📬 FREE NMR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NMR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NMR SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (47.4) create a -11 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
48
Grade D$9.26-0.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$9.22-1.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
53
Grade C-$9.12+4.9% Next Q
Current
56
Grade D+$9.57-0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NMR Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, NMR faces multiple-compression risk if 32.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($9.82) or 200D SMA ($9.01) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($9.48) toward Bear Floor ($7.39).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NMR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NMR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
47.430 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE66% OF RANGE
L: $7$9.57H: $11
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 11 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on NMR

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (55)

9.9% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.21% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (75)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (50)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 9/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like NMR
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NMR)

  • ✓Walkthrough of NMR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NMR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.17%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $9.47H $9.57L $9.38C $9.57VOL 2.48M
RES: $11.76SUP: $8.84SMA50: $9.82SMA200: $9.01
$11.17$10.23$9.29$8.36$7.42RES $11.76SUP $8.84$9.572026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NMR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NMR Butterfly Map → + Track NMR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. 0.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NMR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NMR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NMR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NMR)

Financials Rank #500 of 1097 ⚔️ TW vs NMR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NMR vs. TW, RJF, LPLA, IBKR)

Industry: Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service (64 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) ranks #500 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #100 by equity capitalization ($27.21B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RJF leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while TW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.6% ROIC and — gross margin. TW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with NMR at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NMR ACTIVE
Nomura Holdings Inc ADR
D+ 56/100 32.8x — 9.9% +2.03% $27.21B Benchmark Subject
TW
Tradeweb Markets Inc.
B+ 78/100 34.2x — 13.6% +1.21% $28.45B /tw-vs-nmr →
RJF
Raymond James Financial Inc.
C 63/100 14.5x — 5.9% +3.23% $30.24B /rjf-vs-nmr →
LPLA
LPL Financial Holdings Inc.
D- 38/100 25.5x — 8.5% +5.25% $22.09B /lpla-vs-nmr →
IBKR
Interactive Brokers Group Inc.
D+ 53/100 139.6x — 0.3% -2.69% $34.84B /ibkr-vs-nmr →

2. NMR Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) operates in Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service (Financials) with an equity capitalization of $27.21B, trailing P/E of 32.8x, forward P/E of 30.5x, and EV/EBITDA of 21.0x. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, net profit margin of 10.9%, ROIC of 9.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.

3. NMR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NMR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NYSE: NMR) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $9.57 (+2.03% 1D, market cap $27.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, NMR ranks #500 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NMR compare to TW and RJF in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), NMR carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, TW (Tradeweb Markets Inc.) holds a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 34.2x, ROIC 13.6%, cap $28.45B) and RJF (Raymond James Financial Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 14.5x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $30.24B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RJF leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while TW leads on capital efficiency (13.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NMR?

For Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs and sector rank #500 in Financials, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NMR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NMR last traded at $9.57 (+2.03% on volume of 857,623 shares), positioning the stock -2.55% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.82) and +6.22% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.01). Across its 52-week range of $6.88 to $10.94, NMR sits at the 66.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.3% ($9.16 to $9.98).

Direct Sub-Reports: NMR RQD Cockpit NMR 12M Forecast NMR Earnings & Move NMR Dividends & DRIP NMR Insiders & 13F NMR Whale Options NMR Profit Sankey NMR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NMR — Nomura Holdings Inc ADR: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-11-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $9.57 (+2.03% 1D, market capitalization $27.21B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.15x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $27.21B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 13.9%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.9% (free cash flow yield of 2.21%). Within the Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 2.21% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $6.88 – $10.94 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 32.8x trailing P/E and 21.0x EV/EBITDA against 13.9% operating margins and a 1.15x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph records no upstream or downstream dependencies, no sector correlations, and no bottleneck links for NMR.

  • Key Question #1: Can NMR sustain or expand its 13.9% operating margin and 9.9% ROIC against Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (2.21% FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score N/A) toward the $10.94 52-week high?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NMR's 30.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.15x)?

NMR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NMR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NMR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.57?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NMR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NMR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $10.79 (+15.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet scores 15 / 20 with an Altman Z of 2.5, a Piotroski F of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5, and an H1 2026 profit head

Forensic balance sheet scores 15 / 20 with an Altman Z of 2.5, a Piotroski F of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5, and an H1 2026 profit headline reports shares rising.. When you look under the hood at NMR, Fundamental Cash Engine is 11/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 9.9% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (9/20) has been quietly accumulating below $10.94. My 12M target is $10.79.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Shorting a 9/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $9.38 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.41 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $9.38

The RQD rating is a D+ Roarable Sell with a 2.21% FCF yield against a 30.5 forward P/E, and recent headlines report earnings missing es

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on NMR: The RQD rating is a D+ Roarable Sell with a 2.21% FCF yield against a 30.5 forward P/E, and recent headlines report earnings missing estimates.. At 32.8x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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