Trupanion Inc. (TRUP) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$30.13 -0.20% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $30.06

Trupanion Inc. (TRUP) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.32B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TRUP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, Trupanion Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $30.13 (-0.20% 1D, market cap $1.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TRUP ranks #151 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TRUP compare to FRNM and CSTL in the Health Care sector?
β–Ό

Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), TRUP carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 68.2x, gross margin of 16.1%, and ROIC of 3.1%. By comparison, FRNM (Freenome Inc.) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.4%, cap $1.38B) and CSTL (Castle Biosciences Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.3%, cap $1.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TRUP leads on earnings multiple (68.2x) while ALHC leads on capital efficiency (13.9% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TRUP?
β–Ό

Per TRUP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001371285), Trupanion Inc. generated $1.44B in revenue (+11.9% YoY), $19.4M in net income, and $75.4M in free cash flow against $915.0M in total assets and $101.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 68x earningsβ€”high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $30.06 (-0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) β€’ 5.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 54.8% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C
025507510063
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ Β· Rk B
Cash (10)Whales (13)SEC (15)Macro (14)CEO (11)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target
$49 Bull$31 Base$24 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE TRUP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TRUP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±7.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY TRUP SCORES 63/100 (C) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.17 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 8/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime Γ— Technicals: 35% of 52W Range β€’ RSI-14 at 67.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 1% operating margin leave 10 pts on the table

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
55
Grade C$26.29+4.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$27.50+8.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$29.77+1.2% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$30.13+0.9% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C (55) β†’ C (63)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TRUP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, TRUP faces multiple-compression risk if 68.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 68x earningsβ€”high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($26.87) or 200D SMA ($26.58) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($30.81) toward Bear Floor ($24.03).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TRUPβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œTRUP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±7.7%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (TRUP)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for TRUP.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating TRUP & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on TRUP
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TRUP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.30%β–² ASCENDING TRIANGLE
2026-11-02O $29.52H $30.19L $29.52C $30.13VOL 373.2K
SUP: $22.32SMA50: $26.87SMA200: $26.58
$37.91$33.37$28.83$24.29$19.75SUP $22.32$30.132026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TRUP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
45.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TRUP today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TRUP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TRUP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TRUP)

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TRUP vs. FRNM, CSTL, LMRI, ALHC)

Industry: Medical Specialities (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Trupanion Inc. (TRUP) ranks #151 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #324 by equity capitalization ($1.32B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TRUP leads on earnings valuation at 68.2x trailing P/E, while ALHC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.9% ROIC and β€” gross margin. TRUP currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TRUP ACTIVE
Trupanion Inc.
C 63/100 68.2x 16.1% 3.1% -0.20% $1.32B Benchmark Subject
FRNM
Freenome Inc.
D- 36/100 β€” β€” -3.4% -2.95% $1.38B /frnm-vs-trup β†’
CSTL
Castle Biosciences Inc.
C 63/100 β€” 79.4% -9.3% -3.51% $1.18B /cstl-vs-trup β†’
LMRI
Lumexa Imaging Holdings Inc.
D+ 54/100 β€” β€” β€” -2.73% $1.13B /lmri-vs-trup β†’
ALHC
Alignment Healthcare Inc.
D+ 56/100 β€” β€” 13.9% -9.80% $1.67B /alhc-vs-trup β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001371285

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Trupanion Inc. (TRUP) reported GAAP revenue of $1.44B (+11.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.29B , and +29.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $19.4M, operating cash flow of $89.5M, and free cash flow of $75.4M (+95.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, TRUP closed FY2025 with $915.0M in total assets against $101.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.17, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.44B $19.4M $89.5M $75.4M $915.0M $101.8M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.29B -$9.6M $48.3M $38.6M $806.9M $127.5M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.11B -$44.7M $18.6M $18.6M β€” β€”

3. TRUP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TRUP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Trupanion Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $30.13 (-0.20% 1D, market cap $1.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TRUP ranks #151 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TRUP compare to FRNM and CSTL in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), TRUP carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 68.2x, gross margin of 16.1%, and ROIC of 3.1%. By comparison, FRNM (Freenome Inc.) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.4%, cap $1.38B) and CSTL (Castle Biosciences Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.3%, cap $1.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TRUP leads on earnings multiple (68.2x) while ALHC leads on capital efficiency (13.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TRUP?

Per TRUP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001371285), Trupanion Inc. generated $1.44B in revenue (+11.9% YoY), $19.4M in net income, and $75.4M in free cash flow against $915.0M in total assets and $101.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 68x earningsβ€”high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TRUP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TRUP last traded at $30.13 (-0.20% on volume of 330,678 shares), positioning the stock +12.13% above its 50-day simple moving average ($26.87) and +13.36% above its 200-day simple moving average ($26.58). Across its 52-week range of $21.16 to $46.98, TRUP sits at the 34.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 67.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±7.7% ($27.81 to $32.45).

TRUP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

What is TRUP's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for TRUP.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 63/100 (C) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TRUP β€” Trupanion Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:29:37Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TRUP scores 63 out of 100, graded C, with the verdict "Roarable Hold β€” Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The score is built from five pillars, each out of 20. The fundamental cash engine pillar scores 10/20, reflecting ROIC of 3.1% and FCF yield of 5.69%; for an investor, this signals that the business currently generates modest returns on capital relative to its valuation. The whale 13F flow pillar scores 13/20, indicating institutional accumulation and options positioning that is supportive but not dominant. The insider conviction pillar scores 11/20 based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, a middling read on whether insiders are signaling confidence. The macro regime fit pillar scores 14/20, with beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity; the stock moves in line with the broader market, offering neither a defensive cushion nor elevated volatility. The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 15/20, supported by Altman Z 3.17, Piotroski F 8/9, and Debt/Equity 0.27, the strongest pillar and a reason the balance sheet is not the primary concern. Taken together, a prospective investor evaluating the stock today faces a balanced setup: the balance sheet is sound, but valuation is elevated against thin current profitability, so upside depends on margin expansion continuing to materialize.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
30.19$1.32B68.263.449.80.440%1.0$21.16 - $46.983.1%

Business

Trupanion Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector and Medical Specialities industry, per the profile. The company's product lines, customer base, and revenue model are not described in the source data. Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 revenue was $1439.3M, indicating a sizable operating scale. Not available in source data for further detail on how the company makes money.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$1439.3M$13.8M$19.4MN/A$75.4M$138.0M$101.8M
FY 2024$1285.7M$-9.5M$-9.6MN/A$38.6M$160.3M$127.5M
FY 2023$1108.6M$-40.7M$-44.7MN/A$18.6MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, the company moved from operating and net losses in FY 2023 and FY 2024 to a profit in FY 2025, with net income of $19.4M. Per the market data, gross margin is 16.1%, operating margin 1%, and net margin 1.4%, with ROIC of 3.1%, so profitability remains thin. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 3.17 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, and the Debt/Equity ratio is 0.27. Cash declined from $160.3M to $138.0M while debt declined from $127.5M to $101.8M over FY 2024 to FY 2025.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news wire contains six items, all tagged as market wire and yellow-flagged, with no company-specific fundamental event described in the headlines. One item reports that the COO, John Gallagher, sold $12,550 in company stock, a small insider sale per the Investing.com report. Another headline describes the stock rebounding on a margin focus and asks whether it remains cheap, per Simply Wall St. A Yahoo Finance item notes earnings are expected to grow. A MarketBeat item cites an average target price of $38.40. A TradingView item covers estimates. The first item is a general stock-quote page. Risk watch items include the insider sale and the thin current margins. The butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply chain and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is not available and there are no butterfly links or proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies are not available in source data. Sector correlations beyond the Health Care and Medical Specialities classification are not available in source data. Second-order bottlenecks are not available in source data.

Open Questions

  • What is the company's revenue composition and customer base, since no business description beyond sector classification is provided?
  • What drove the swing from FY 2024's net loss of $-9.6M to FY 2025's net income of $19.4M, and is the margin improvement durable?
  • Why is EPS reported as N/A for all periods, and what is the EPS trajectory behind the $0.44 TTM figure?
  • What is the source and composition of the FY 2023 gap in cash and debt data?
  • What do the insider sale and institutional positioning signals indicate about management's view of the valuation at a 68.2 P/E?

TRUP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Trupanion Inc. (TRUP) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to TRUP Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TRUP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $30.13?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TRUP 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TRUP:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $32.61 (+8.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TRUP (C β€’ RQD 63/100) a Buy at $30.19?

Welcome to the TRUP (Trupanion Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 63/100 (Roarable Hold β€” Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Medical Specialities. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (68.2x trailing P/E). Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $25.36 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $30.19

Pump the brakes on TRUP β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TRUP, but look at what you are paying: 68.2x trailing P/E with 16.1% gross margins. Unless Trupanion Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $35.93 (+19.0%)
Spot @ $30.19

TRUP cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TRUP, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Medical Specialities and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $30.19 (52-wk range $21.16 - $46.98), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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