Should I buy, hold, or sell ALHC stock right now?

Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 56/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (14% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is ALHC's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ALHC's 12-month base price target is $6.94 (range $5.41 to $26.38), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Health Care / ALHC

PSNL (36) FRNM (31) TRUP (63) CSTL (62) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$7.00 -3.71% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.94

Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.52B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ALHC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Alignment Healthcare Inc. (NASDAQ: ALHC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $7.00 (-3.71% 1D, market cap $1.52B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, ALHC ranks #199 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ALHC compare to PSNL and FRNM in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), ALHC carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.9%. By comparison, PSNL (Personalis Inc.) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.69B) and FRNM (Freenome Inc.) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.4%, cap $1.34B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TRUP leads on earnings multiple (68.2x) while ALHC leads on capital efficiency (13.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALHC?

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Per ALHC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001832466), Alignment Healthcare Inc. generated $3.95B in revenue (+46.1% YoY), -$724.0K in net income, and $113.1M in free cash flow against $1.07B in total assets and $323.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.94 (-0.86%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 2.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALHC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ALHC SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.9% FCF Margin ($113.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$8.30+2.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$8.51-5.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$8.05-13% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$7.00-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ALHC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, ALHC faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($9.65) or 200D SMA ($16.66) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($6.94) toward Bear Floor ($5.41).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALHC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ALHC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

36.830 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

4.00>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

6 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE5% OF RANGE

L: $6$7.00H: $25

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: A-RQD 17 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on ALHC

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (85)

13.9% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 6.77% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (60)

Altman-Z 4.00 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (45)

20/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 7/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ALHC

✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ALHC)

✓Walkthrough of ALHC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ALHC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -63.66%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $8.06H $8.06L $7.00C $7.00VOL 13.82M

RES: $7.29SUP: $3.12SMA50: $9.65SMA200: $16.66

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALHC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ALHC Butterfly Map → + Track ALHC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

34.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +46.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALHC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALHC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALHC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALHC)

Health Care Rank #199 of 1016 ⚔️ PSNL vs ALHC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ALHC vs. PSNL, FRNM, TRUP, CSTL)

Industry: Medical Specialities (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) ranks #199 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #302 by equity capitalization ($1.52B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TRUP leads on earnings valuation at 68.2x trailing P/E, while ALHC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.9% ROIC and — gross margin. TRUP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with ALHC at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ALHC ACTIVE Alignment Healthcare Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	13.9%	-3.71%	$1.52B	Benchmark Subject
PSNL Personalis Inc.	D-	36/100	—	22.7%	-35.0%	-0.38%	$1.69B	/psnl-vs-alhc →
FRNM Freenome Inc.	E	31/100	—	—	-3.4%	-6.97%	$1.34B	/frnm-vs-alhc →
TRUP Trupanion Inc.	C	63/100	68.2x	16.1%	3.1%	+2.06%	$1.32B	/trup-vs-alhc →
CSTL Castle Biosciences Inc.	C	62/100	—	79.4%	-9.3%	-5.97%	$1.14B	/cstl-vs-alhc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001832466

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) reported GAAP revenue of $3.95B (+46.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.70B , and +119.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$724.0K, operating cash flow of $139.9M, and free cash flow of $113.1M (+1802.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALHC closed FY2025 with $1.07B in total assets against $323.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.00, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$3.95B	-$724.0K	$139.9M	$113.1M	$1.07B	$323.2M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.70B	-$128.0M	$34.8M	-$6.6M	$782.1M	$321.4M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.80B	-$148.0M	-$59.2M	-$59.2M	—	—

3. ALHC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALHC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ALHC compare to PSNL and FRNM in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALHC?

Where is ALHC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALHC last traded at $7.00 (-3.71% on volume of 6,859,079 shares), positioning the stock -27.46% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.65) and -57.98% below its 200-day simple moving average ($16.66). Across its 52-week range of $6.01 to $25.12, ALHC sits at the 5.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($6.12 to $7.88).

Direct Sub-Reports: ALHC RQD Cockpit ALHC 12M Forecast ALHC Earnings & Move ALHC Dividends & DRIP ALHC Insiders & 13F ALHC Whale Options ALHC Profit Sankey ALHC News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ALHC — Alignment Healthcare Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $7.00 (-3.71% 1D, market capitalization $1.52B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (17/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 0.4%, and free cash flow yield of 6.77%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.00, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.80x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Medical Specialities industry (Health Care sector) with an equity market capitalization of $1.52B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0.4%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.9% (free cash flow yield of 6.77%). Within the Medical Specialities peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) reported $3.95B in annual revenue (up from $2.70B in FY2024, +46.1% YoY) and -$724.0K in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.80B revenue, -$148.0M net income) through FY2025, ALHC scaled operating cash flow to $139.9M and free cash flow to $113.1M, backed by $1.07B in total assets against $323.2M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 56/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 17/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $6.01 – $25.12 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh current valuation and 37.8x EV/EBITDA against 0.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore — The only sector context provided is the Health Care sector and Medical Specialities industry classification, plus the beta of 1.0.

Key Question #1: Can ALHC sustain or expand its 0.4% operating margin and 13.9% ROIC against Medical Specialities peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.95B and free cash flow of $113.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $323.2M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is ALHC's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ALHC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ALHC Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 20h ago

What Is Behind Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) Stock's Latest Move?

Yahoo Finance report covering Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 23h ago

Why Is Alignment Healthcare Stock Tumbling Today? - Alignment Healthcare (NASDAQ:ALHC)

Benzinga report covering Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 1d ago

Why is Alignment Healthcare stock tumbling today?

Investing.com report covering Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Why Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) Stock Is Up Today

Yahoo Finance report covering Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) Stock Looks Fairly Valued Despite Earnings Questions

Yahoo Finance report covering Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Why Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) Shares Are Trading Lower Today

Yahoo Finance report covering Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

What’s Behind Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) Stock’s Latest Move?

Yahoo Finance report covering Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo • 2d ago

Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) Stock Looks Reasonably Valued Following The CMS Ratings Cut

Alignment Healthcare stock has been hit hard over the past few years, and with earnings now under a brighter spotlight, investors are asking whether the current valuation still lines up with the story they thought they o

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ALHC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $7.00?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ALHC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $8.87 (+22.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Cash generation is the strongest pillar, with ROIC of 13.9% and an FCF yield of 6.77%, and FY 2025 operating income turned positive at

Picked up a starter position in ALHC in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $7.27. Cash generation is the strongest pillar, with ROIC of 13.9% and an FCF yield of 6.77%, and FY 2025 operating income turned positive at $14.8M.. Trading inside a $6.01–$25.12 52-week range with 6.77% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Medical Specialities multiples expand this quarter.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 56/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $7.27 and keeping dry powder in case we test $6.76.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $5.74 (-21.0%)

Spot @ $7.27

Weak institutional flow, elevated leverage at 1.8 Debt/Equity, and a 0.4% operating margin leave the high 37.8 EV/EBITDA multiple poorl

Fading this rally in ALHC at $7.27. Weak institutional flow, elevated leverage at 1.8 Debt/Equity, and a 0.4% operating margin leave the high 37.8 EV/EBITDA multiple poorly supported.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $7.27 (52-wk range $6.01–$25.12), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.