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TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$66.67 +1.03% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $66.67

TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.29B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TMDX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, TransMedics Group Inc. (NASDAQ: TMDX) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $66.67 (+1.03% 1D, market cap $2.29B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, TMDX ranks #157 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TMDX compare to AXGN and CNMD in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus), TMDX carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of 59.9%, and ROIC of 18.1%. By comparison, AXGN (Axogen Inc.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.6%, cap $2.95B) and CNMD (CONMED Corporation) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 28.9x, ROIC 7.8%, cap $1.32B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMDX leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while TMDX leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMDX?
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Per TMDX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001756262), TransMedics Group Inc. generated $605.5M in revenue (+37.1% YoY), $190.3M in net income, and $133.6M in free cash flow against $1.07B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (59.9% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $66.67 (+0.00%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 22.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510061
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk C
Cash (15)Whales (4)SEC (16)Macro (9)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.3% Base Target
$164 Bull$68 Base$53 Bear
📬 FREE TMDX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TMDX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TMDX SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.50 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
69
Grade B-$79.14-5.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
66
Grade B-$74.75-6.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$69.73-4.4% Next Q
Current
61
Grade C-$66.67+0.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (69) → C- (61)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TMDX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, TMDX faces multiple-compression risk if 12.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 57.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($80.55) or 200D SMA ($93.71) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($67.57) toward Bear Floor ($52.70).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TMDX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TMDX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 61%NO 39%Trade / Inspect Odds →
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

TMDX Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (TMDX)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on TMDX. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TMDX Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TMDX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -31.32%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $67.12H $67.12L $65.99C $66.67VOL 900.1K
RES: $111.9SUP: $64.52SMA50: $80.55SMA200: $93.71
$126.9$108.8$90.69$72.58$54.48RES $111.9SUP $64.52$66.672026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TMDX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TMDX Butterfly Map → + Track TMDX →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +37.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TMDX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TMDX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TMDX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TMDX)

Health Care Rank #157 of 1015 ⚔️ AXGN vs TMDX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TMDX vs. AXGN, CNMD, ITGR, LIVN)

Industry: Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus (26 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) ranks #157 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #233 by equity capitalization ($2.29B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TMDX leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while TMDX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.1% ROIC and 59.9% gross margin. ITGR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with TMDX at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TMDX ACTIVE
TransMedics Group Inc.
C- 61/100 12.2x 59.9% 18.1% +1.03% $2.29B Benchmark Subject
AXGN
Axogen Inc.
D+ 53/100 — 74.3% -2.6% +0.97% $2.95B /axgn-vs-tmdx →
CNMD
CONMED Corporation
C 62/100 28.9x 54.6% 7.8% +5.19% $1.32B /cnmd-vs-tmdx →
ITGR
Integer Holdings Corporation
C+ 67/100 41.8x 27.0% 6.0% -0.03% $4.30B /itgr-vs-tmdx →
LIVN
LivaNova PLC
C+ 66/100 — 67.7% 17.3% +1.57% $4.35B /livn-vs-tmdx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001756262 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) reported GAAP revenue of $605.5M (+37.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $441.5M , and +150.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $190.3M, operating cash flow of $192.8M, and free cash flow of $133.6M (+265.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, TMDX closed FY2025 with $1.07B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.50, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $605.5M $190.3M $192.8M $133.6M $1.07B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $441.5M $35.5M $48.8M -$80.9M $804.1M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $241.6M -$25.0M -$13.0M -$13.0M — —

3. TMDX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TMDX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, TransMedics Group Inc. (NASDAQ: TMDX) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $66.67 (+1.03% 1D, market cap $2.29B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, TMDX ranks #157 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TMDX compare to AXGN and CNMD in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus), TMDX carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of 59.9%, and ROIC of 18.1%. By comparison, AXGN (Axogen Inc.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.6%, cap $2.95B) and CNMD (CONMED Corporation) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 28.9x, ROIC 7.8%, cap $1.32B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMDX leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while TMDX leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMDX?

Per TMDX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001756262), TransMedics Group Inc. generated $605.5M in revenue (+37.1% YoY), $190.3M in net income, and $133.6M in free cash flow against $1.07B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (59.9% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TMDX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TMDX last traded at $66.67 (+1.03% on volume of 689,609 shares), positioning the stock -17.23% below its 50-day simple moving average ($80.55) and -28.85% below its 200-day simple moving average ($93.71). Across its 52-week range of $60.10 to $156.00, TMDX sits at the 6.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 30.8 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.4% ($60.40 to $72.94).

Direct Sub-Reports: TMDX RQD Cockpit TMDX 12M Forecast TMDX Earnings & Move TMDX Dividends & DRIP TMDX Insiders & 13F TMDX Whale Options TMDX Profit Sankey TMDX News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 61/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TMDX — TransMedics Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 61/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $66.67 (+1.03% 1D, market capitalization $2.29B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 18.1%, gross margin of 59.9%, operating margin of 17.9%, and free cash flow yield of 5.74%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.50, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

TransMedics Group Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus industry, with a market capitalization of $2.3B. The reported margins (gross 59.9%, operating 17.9%, net 31.4%) are per the Market Data section.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) reported $605.5M in annual revenue (up from $441.5M in FY2024, +37.1% YoY) and $190.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($241.6M revenue, -$25.0M net income) through FY2025, TMDX scaled operating cash flow to $192.8M and free cash flow to $133.6M, backed by $1.07B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 61/100): Strong cash generator (59.9% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $60.10 – $156.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 12.2x trailing P/E and 14.6x EV/EBITDA against 17.9% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector context available is the Health Care classification and the Beta of 1.0. An investor should note that any ripple analysis would require supply-chain and correlation data not present in this dossier.

  • Key Question #1: Can TMDX sustain or expand its 17.9% operating margin and 18.1% ROIC against Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $605.5M and free cash flow of $133.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TMDX's 10.2x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TMDX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TMDX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TMDX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $66.67?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TMDX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TMDX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $79.85 (+21.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue rose from $241.6M in FY 2023 to $605.5M in FY 2025 while operating income swung to $108.6M, with a 3.5 Altman Z-Score and 8/9 P

Revenue rose from $241.6M in FY 2023 to $605.5M in FY 2025 while operating income swung to $108.6M, with a 3.5 Altman Z-Score and 8/9 Piotroski F-Score.. When you look under the hood at TMDX, Fundamental Cash Engine is 15/20 with 59.9% gross margins and 18.1% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (4/20) has been quietly accumulating below $156.00. My 12M target is $79.85.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MidwestValue Agree on the RQD 61/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $65.99 and keeping dry powder in case we test $61.37.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $55.43 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $65.99

Institutional accumulation scores only 4 of 20 in the RQD rating, and the stock's 52-week range of $60.1 to $156 shows a steep drawdown

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on TMDX: Institutional accumulation scores only 4 of 20 in the RQD rating, and the stock's 52-week range of $60.1 to $156 shows a steep drawdown from its high.. At 12.2x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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