TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±9.4% Move

TMDX scores 62 out of 100, grade C, labeled "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 15 of 20 (ROIC 18.1%; FCF yield 5.74%); Whale 13F Flow at 4 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 17 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 10 of 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 16 of 20 (Altman Z 3.5; Piotroski F 8/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

For a prospective investor, the pillar mix is uneven. The strongest signals are the balance sheet and insider flow, while institutional accumulation registers as weak at 4 of 20. The cash-engine score is moderate, supported by the reported ROIC and FCF yield, and the macro pillar is middling given a Beta of 1.0. The valuation tradeoff is that the stock's trailing and forward multiples sit below its EV/EBITDA level, so upside depends on sustaining the reported earnings and cash-flow improvement. The 52-week range ($60.1 – $156) indicates the stock has traded far above its current price, which underscores volatility and sentiment sensitivity. This is an educational reading of the rating, not personalized advice.

TransMedics Group Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus industry, with a market capitalization of $2.3B. The reported margins (gross 59.9%, operating 17.9%, net 31.4%) are per the Market Data section.

Revenue grew from $241.6M (FY 2023) to $605.5M (FY 2025), and operating income moved from a loss of -$28.7M to $108.6M. Net income for FY 2025 is $190.3M, which is notably above operating income. Per the Market Data, ROIC is 18.1% and the net margin is 31.4%. The Altman Z-Score is 3.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5, which together describe a balance sheet the rating treats as forensically sound.

• 🐂 Primary Bull Case: Revenue rose from $241.6M in FY 2023 to $605.5M in FY 2025 while operating income swung to $108.6M, with a 3.5 Altman Z-Score and 8/9 Piotroski F-Score. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 (ROIC 18.1%, FCF yield 5.74%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $60.10 – $156.00 52-week range.
• 🐻 Primary Bear Case: Institutional accumulation scores only 4 of 20 in the RQD rating, and the stock's 52-week range of $60.1 to $156 shows a steep drawdown from its high. Investors must weigh 12.2x trailing P/E and 14.6x EV/EBITDA against 17.9% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

The only sector context available is the Health Care classification and the Beta of 1.0. An investor should note that any ripple analysis would require supply-chain and correlation data not present in this dossier.

• Key Question #1: What are the FY 2025 cash, debt, and EPS balances that underpin the reported Altman Z-Score and Debt/Equity figures?
• Key Question #2: What is the composition of the FY 2025 net income of $190.3M, which exceeds operating income of $108.6M?
• Key Question #3: What is the basis for the $121.10 average price target cited in the news feed, and how many analysts contribute to it?