Stock Ratings / Materials / TMC / dividends

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TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$2.60 -8.45% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.56

TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 29/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $1.25B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TMC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, TMC the metals company Inc. (NASDAQ: TMC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $2.60 (-8.45% 1D, market cap $1.25B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, TMC ranks #235 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TMC compare to IMC and CRML in the Materials sector?

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Within the Materials sector (Metal Mining), TMC carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, IMC (IMC Rare Earths Ltd) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.26B) and CRML (Critical Metals Corp.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMC leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TMC leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMC?

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Per TMC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001798562), TMC the metals company Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$319.8M in net income, and -$43.1M in free cash flow against $181.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.56 (-1.71%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TMC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (29/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TMC SCORES 29/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (34% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$2.88-9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$2.62-8.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$2.39+8.8% Next Q

Current

Grade E$2.60-9.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (37) → E (29)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TMC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TMC currently carries a cautious 29/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.65) and Max Pain ($2.73) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.55.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TMC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TMC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 29%NO 71%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

0.6% Total Yield

0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 0.6% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

74/100 • REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

0% (100% Reinvested)

Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (5.5% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $17,081

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $102/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$10.6K

Yr 1

$11.1K

Yr 2

$11.7K

Yr 3

$12.4K

Yr 4

$13.1K

Yr 5

$13.8K

Yr 6

$14.5K

Yr 7

$15.3K

Yr 8

$16.2K

Yr 9

$17.1K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TMC)

✓Walkthrough of TMC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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TMC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -49.90%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-02O $2.80H $2.84L $2.60C $2.60VOL 5.25M

RES: $4.45SUP: $2.25SMA50: $3.65SMA200: $4.87

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TMC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TMC Butterfly Map → + Track TMC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TMC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TMC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TMC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TMC)

Materials Rank #235 of 270 ⚔️ IMC vs TMC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (TMC vs. IMC, CRML, IE, USAS)

Industry: Metal Mining (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) ranks #235 by composite RQD confidence (29/100, grade E) and #127 by equity capitalization ($1.25B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TMC leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TMC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. IMC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with TMC at 29/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TMC ACTIVE TMC the metals company Inc.	E	29/100	—	—	-35.0%	-8.45%	$1.25B	Benchmark Subject
IMC IMC Rare Earths Ltd	C-	59/100	—	—	—	-6.33%	$1.26B	/imc-vs-tmc →
CRML Critical Metals Corp.	D+	53/100	—	—	—	-9.94%	$1.18B	/crml-vs-tmc →
IE Ivanhoe Electric Inc.	D-	35/100	—	65.3%	-35.0%	-8.31%	$1.34B	/ie-vs-tmc →
USAS Americas Gold and Silver Corporation no par value	D	44/100	—	—	—	-6.51%	$1.04B	/usas-vs-tmc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001798562

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$319.8M, operating cash flow of -$42.9M, and free cash flow of -$43.1M (+2.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, TMC closed FY2025 with $181.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$319.8M	-$42.9M	-$43.1M	$181.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$81.9M	-$43.5M	-$44.0M	$63.0M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$73.8M	-$59.6M	-$59.6M	—	—

3. TMC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TMC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TMC compare to IMC and CRML in the Materials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMC?

Where is TMC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TMC last traded at $2.60 (-8.45% on volume of 3,571,546 shares), positioning the stock -28.77% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.65) and -46.61% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.87). Across its 52-week range of $2.34 to $10.05, TMC sits at the 3.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.27 to $2.93).

TMC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does TMC pay a dividend and is it safe?

TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) offers a 0% cash dividend yield ($0.00 annualized) and 0.6% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS.

Direct Sub-Reports: TMC RQD Cockpit TMC 12M Forecast TMC Earnings & Move TMC Dividends & DRIP TMC Insiders & 13F TMC Whale Options TMC Profit Sankey TMC News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 29/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TMC — TMC the metals company Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:30:00Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TMC scores 29 out of 100, earning a letter grade of E and the verdict "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 8 / 20. Per the RQD rating, ROIC is -35% and FCF yield is -3.44%. For a prospective investor, this pillar signals that the business is not currently generating a return on capital or positive free cash flow, so the investment case depends on future value creation rather than present cash economics.
Whale 13F Flow: 3 / 20. This pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. A low score indicates weak institutional support in the source data, which removes one common source of price stability.
Insider Conviction: 3 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. A low score means the source data does not show insider buying conviction.
Macro Regime Fit: 5 / 20. Per the RQD rating, beta is 1.0 with sector sensitivity. The stock moves in line with the broad market, so it offers no defensive characteristics in a drawdown.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 10 / 20. Per the RQD rating, Altman Z is 2.5, Piotroski F is 2/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. These readings point to meaningful financial fragility, even though the leverage ratio is not extreme.

Taken together, the pillars indicate that upside would have to come from a successful operational or strategic outcome that the current cash flows do not yet reflect. The valuation tradeoff is that the price of $2.84 sits well above zero earnings support, so the investor is paying for an unproven future. The low score across most pillars is an analytical signal of elevated risk, not a personalized recommendation.

Business

TMC the metals company Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Materials sector, operating within the Metal Mining industry. Per the company profile, it has a market capitalization of $1.3B. The source data does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model. Reported revenue is $0.0M across the periods provided, and the Butterfly graph reports no supply-chain links.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$0.0M	$-140.1M	$-319.8M	N/A	$-43.1M	$117.6M	N/A
FY 2024	$0.0M	$-81.3M	$-81.9M	N/A	$-44.0M	$3.5M	N/A
FY 2023	$0.0M	$-72.4M	$-73.8M	N/A	$-59.6M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, the company reported no revenue and operating losses in each period shown, with net losses widening to $-319.8M in FY 2025. Gross, operating, and net margins are each listed as 0% in the market data. Per the market data, ROIC is -35%. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 2/9. Debt/Equity is 0.5 per the RQD rating, while reported cash rose to $117.6M in FY 2025 from $3.5M in FY 2024.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

NOAA compliance ruling (GREEN, CATALYST): A headline reports that TMC stock gained on a NOAA compliance ruling tied to the US critical metals push. The source data does not provide the ruling's details.
52-week low headlines (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE): Multiple reports note fresh 52-week lows, including one citing the CEO's view that the selloff is not fundamental. The source data does not include the CEO's stated rationale beyond the headline.
Analyst valuation commentary (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE): A Motley Fool headline contrasts the $2.65 trading level with an analyst view of $10, framing the gap as conditional on specific developments the source data does not detail.
Other wire items: Estimates and quote-page items from TradingView and Yahoo Finance Canada carry no substantive catalyst content in the source data.

Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph: Sector Materials, Industry Metal Mining, supply chain "NONE," no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, there are no upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or proprietary signals recorded. For a prospective investor, the practical implication is that the source data cannot map how a change in critical-metals policy or commodity demand would transmit through TMC's supply chain. The one catalyst that could plausibly ripple outward is the NOAA compliance ruling referenced in the news wire, but the source data does not establish its scope, so any second-order effect on peers or inputs remains unquantified.

Open Questions

What is the company's revenue model, given that reported revenue is $0.0M in every period provided?
What is the scope of the NOAA compliance ruling, and does it change the timeline of any operating milestones?
Why is the Altman Z-Score of 2.5 and Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 not reconciled with the reported cash increase to $117.6M in FY 2025?
What drove the FY 2025 net loss of $-319.8M, which is far larger than the $-140.1M operating loss?
What is the source of the $2.65 to $10 analyst valuation gap cited in the news wire, and what assumptions underlie it?

TMC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TMC Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 12h ago

TMC Stock Hits Fresh 52-Week Lows But CEO Says Selloff Isn’t Fundamental: ‘...Negativity Can Feed On Itself’

Yahoo Finance report covering TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Stocktwits • 15h ago

TMC Stock Gains On NOAA Compliance Ruling In A Boost To US Critical Metals Push

Stocktwits report covering TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 18h ago

TMC stock hits 52-week low at 3.4 USD

Investing.com report covering TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Motley Fool • 21h ago

The Metals Company Trades at $2.65. Analysts See It at $10. Here's What Would Need to Go Right for It to Close That Gap.

The Motley Fool report covering TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 1d ago

TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

TMC the metals company Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:TMC

TradingView report covering TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Exoswan Insights • 1d ago

Top Deep Sea Mining Stocks for 2027: One Seabed, Two Laws

Exoswan Insights report covering TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE kalkine.ca • 1d ago

Why Did TMC the metals company (NASDAQ:TMC) Slip 2.49%?

kalkine.ca report covering TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TMC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.60?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TMC 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.50 (-12.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TMC (E • RQD 29/100) a Buy at $2.84?

Welcome to the TMC (TMC the metals company Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 29/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Metal Mining. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.27 (-20.1%)

Spot @ $2.84

Pump the brakes on TMC — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TMC, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless TMC the metals company Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.64 (+28.2%)

Spot @ $2.84

TMC cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TMC, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Metal Mining and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $2.84 (52-wk range $2.34 - $10.05), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.