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Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$332.99 -2.95% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $330.59

Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $16.44B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TLN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Talen Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: TLN) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $332.99 (-2.95% 1D, market cap $16.44B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 116 tracked Utilities issuers, TLN ranks #90 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TLN compare to EMA and BEP in the Utilities sector?
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Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), TLN carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -1.0%. By comparison, EMA (Emera Incorporated) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $15.14B) and BEP (Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $19.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NRG leads on earnings multiple (23.7x) while NRG leads on capital efficiency (10.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TLN?
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Per TLN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001622536), Talen Energy Corporation generated $2.52B in revenue (+60.0% YoY), -$219.0M in net income, and $606.0M in free cash flow against $10.90B in total assets and $6.78B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $330.59 (-0.72%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 24.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510041
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk E
Cash (10)Whales (11)SEC (6)Macro (3)CEO (11)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.6% Base Target
$472 Bull$308 Base$240 Bear
📬 FREE TLN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TLN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (41/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TLN SCORES 41/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (27% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (50.2) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
49
Grade D$358.42+0.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
46
Grade D$359.49-3.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
44
Grade D$347.75-4.2% Next Q
Current
41
Grade D-$332.99-7.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (49) → D- (41)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TLN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TLN currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($326.80) and Max Pain ($349.64) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $472.33.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TLN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TLN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 41%NO 59%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±9%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (TLN)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for TLN.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TLN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TLN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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TLN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.43%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $348.9H $348.9L $333.0C $333.0VOL 865.4K
RES: $397.2SUP: $243.6SMA50: $326.8SMA200: $349.1
$461.7$412.4$363.1$313.8$264.5RES $397.2SUP $243.6$333.02026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TLN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TLN Butterfly Map → + Track TLN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
21.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +60.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TLN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TLN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TLN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TLN)

Utilities Rank #90 of 116 ⚔️ EMA vs TLN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (TLN vs. EMA, BEP, NRG, KEP)

Industry: Electric Utilities: Central (56 Tracked Issuers)

Across 116 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) ranks #90 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #36 by equity capitalization ($16.44B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NRG leads on earnings valuation at 23.7x trailing P/E, while NRG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.9% ROIC and — gross margin. EMA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with TLN at 41/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TLN ACTIVE
Talen Energy Corporation
D- 41/100 — — -1.0% -2.95% $16.44B Benchmark Subject
EMA
Emera Incorporated
C 65/100 32.8x — 9.9% +1.44% $15.14B /ema-vs-tln →
BEP
Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.
D+ 56/100 32.8x — 9.9% +4.89% $19.75B /bep-vs-tln →
NRG
NRG Energy Inc.
D 47/100 23.7x — 10.9% -1.50% $20.19B /nrg-vs-tln →
KEP
Korea Electric Power Corporation
D 46/100 — — — +2.22% $13.28B /kep-vs-tln →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001622536 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) reported GAAP revenue of $2.52B (+60.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.57B ) , GAAP net income of -$219.0M, operating cash flow of $704.0M, and free cash flow of $606.0M (+254.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, TLN closed FY2025 with $10.90B in total assets against $6.78B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.18, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.52B -$219.0M $704.0M $606.0M $10.90B $6.78B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.57B $998.0M $256.0M $171.0M $6.11B $2.99B

3. TLN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TLN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Talen Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: TLN) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $332.99 (-2.95% 1D, market cap $16.44B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 116 tracked Utilities issuers, TLN ranks #90 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TLN compare to EMA and BEP in the Utilities sector?

Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), TLN carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -1.0%. By comparison, EMA (Emera Incorporated) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $15.14B) and BEP (Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $19.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NRG leads on earnings multiple (23.7x) while NRG leads on capital efficiency (10.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TLN?

Per TLN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001622536), Talen Energy Corporation generated $2.52B in revenue (+60.0% YoY), -$219.0M in net income, and $606.0M in free cash flow against $10.90B in total assets and $6.78B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TLN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TLN last traded at $332.99 (-2.95% on volume of 1,066,719 shares), positioning the stock +1.89% above its 50-day simple moving average ($326.80) and -4.61% below its 200-day simple moving average ($349.07). Across its 52-week range of $279.77 to $449.84, TLN sits at the 31.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.0% ($303.02 to $362.96).

Direct Sub-Reports: TLN RQD Cockpit TLN 12M Forecast TLN Earnings & Move TLN Dividends & DRIP TLN Insiders & 13F TLN Whale Options TLN Profit Sankey TLN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 41/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TLN — Talen Energy Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 41/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $332.99 (-2.95% 1D, market capitalization $16.44B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -1.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -3.6%, and free cash flow yield of 3.63%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (6/20): Incorporates a 0.74x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.18, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 6.20x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Talen Energy Corporation is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Utilities sector, operating in the Electric Utilities: Central industry..7B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) reported $2.52B in annual revenue (up from $1.57B in FY2024, +60.0% YoY) and -$219.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2024 ($1.57B revenue, $998.0M net income) through FY2025, TLN scaled operating cash flow to $704.0M and free cash flow to $606.0M, backed by $10.90B in total assets against $6.78B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 41/100): Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 3.63% and institutional whale pillar of 11/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $279.77 – $449.84 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh current valuation against -3.6% operating margins and a 0.74x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The sector is Utilities and the industry is Electric Utilities: Central. A prospective investor should note that the leverage increase shown in the financials, with debt rising from $2.99B to $6.78B, is the most visible potential second-order channel, since higher debt service would sit alongside negative operating income of -$90.0M in FY 2025.

  • Key Question #1: Can TLN sustain or expand its -3.6% operating margin and -1.0% ROIC against Electric Utilities: Central peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.52B and free cash flow of $606.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $6.78B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TLN's 28.0x forward P/E multiple to Utilities capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.74x)?

TLN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TLN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TLN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $332.99?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TLN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TLN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $442.62 (+29.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Market data shows a 3.4% dividend yield and a 0.74 beta alongside a news-wire report of a 12.4% price move and a Seeking Alpha note on

The street is overcomplicating Talen Energy Corporation (TLN). Market data shows a 3.4% dividend yield and a 0.74 beta alongside a news-wire report of a 12.4% price move and a Seeking Alpha note on buybacks.. With an RQD score of 41/100 (D-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 6/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $370.57.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@DeepValue_CFA Agree on the RQD 41/100 quality, though with 0.74 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $343.12 and keeping dry powder in case we test $319.10.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $271.06 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $343.12

Leverage rose from $2.99B to $6.78B of debt while FY 2025 net income turned to -$219.0M and the Altman Z is 1.18.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short TLN above $343.12. Leverage rose from $2.99B to $6.78B of debt while FY 2025 net income turned to -$219.0M and the Altman Z is 1.18.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20) and FCF yield (3.63%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $449.84.

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