MARKET WIREYahoo! Finance Canada • 21h ago
Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) Seasonal Returns Chart - Yahoo FinanceYahoo! Finance Canada report covering Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why TK Stock dropped -5.32% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$14.07 -5.32% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.97
Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 76/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (66.6% gross margin, 20% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.
ROARABLE B+ • BUY
Cap $1.29B
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Is TK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Teekay Corporation Ltd. (NYSE: TK) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $14.07 (-5.32% 1D, market cap $1.29B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TK ranks #55 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does TK compare to CCEC and NVGS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Marine Transportation), TK carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.2x, gross margin of 66.6%, and ROIC of 19.6%. By comparison, CCEC (Capital Clean Energy Carriers Corp. Common Share) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 7.0x, ROIC 4.9%, cap $1.31B) and NVGS (Navigator Holdings Ltd. (Marshall Islands)) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 13.4x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $1.33B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GSL leads on earnings multiple (3.6x) while TK leads on capital efficiency (19.6% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TK?
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Per TK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000911971), Teekay Corporation Ltd. generated $949.5M in revenue (-22.2% YoY), $98.1M in net income, and $111.5M in free cash flow against $2.36B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (66.6% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.97 (-0.72%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 11.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 76/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 11% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+8.1% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (76/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TK SCORES 76/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+17/20 pts (22% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 75% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 56.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (22% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 7 pts from forensic ceiling
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade A$15.46-10.5% Next Q
84
Q2 (-2Q)Grade A-$13.84+5.3% Next Q
81
Q3 (-1Q)Grade A-$14.57-3.4% Next Q
79
CurrentGrade B+$14.07+7.6% Hist 90D α
76
Trajectory: A (84) → B+ (76)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TK Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 76/100 (B+) score, TK faces multiple-compression risk if 13.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 64.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($14.19) or 200D SMA ($12.44) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($15.21) toward Bear Floor ($11.54).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why TK Stock dropped -5.32% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) dropped -5.32% to $14.07, trading at 75% of its 52-week range ($8.67 – $15.9). High-quality cash engine (66.6% gross margin, 20% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 75% of its 52-week range ($8.67 – $15.9) with RSI-14 at 56.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6.8% around $14.07 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B+ (Buy) backed by 66.6% gross margin and $111.5M annual free cash flow.
Live TK Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREMarketBeat • 1d ago
Teekay (NYSE:TK) Sets New 1-Year High - Here's What HappenedMarketBeat report covering Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREGlobeNewswire • 1d ago
Teekay Group to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Results on November 11, 2026GlobeNewswire report covering Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREStock Traders Daily • 1d ago
Technical Reactions to TK Trends in Macro StrategiesStock Traders Daily report covering Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREMarketBeat • 1d ago
Teekay (NYSE:TK) Stock Price Breaks Above Two Hundred Day Moving Average - Here's What HappenedMarketBeat report covering Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREMarketBeat • 1d ago
Teekay (NYSE:TK) Shares Gap Up - Here's WhyMarketBeat report covering Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MARKET WIREMarketBeat • 1d ago
Teekay (TK) Projected to Release Quarterly Earnings on ThursdayMarketBeat report covering Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
CATALYSTYahoo • 16d ago
Teekay (TK) Stock Still Looks Like A Bargain TodayTeekay has delivered a very strong share price run in recent years, which puts fresh attention on what investors are paying for its earnings today. After such a move, the key issue is whether the current valuation of the
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TK Tape Review)
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TK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.16%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-03O $14.90H $14.90L $14.07C $14.07VOL 274.8K
RES: $16.60SUP: $14.27SMA50: $14.19SMA200: $12.44
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
TK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
4.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -22.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TK today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TK)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #55 of 1009
⚔️ CCEC vs TK Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TK vs. CCEC, NVGS, GNK, GSL)
Industry: Marine Transportation (67 Tracked Issuers)Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) ranks #55 by composite RQD confidence (76/100, grade B+) and #478 by equity capitalization ($1.29B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GSL leads on earnings valuation at 3.6x trailing P/E, while TK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.6% ROIC and 66.6% gross margin. TK currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 76/100 (B+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TK
ACTIVE
Teekay Corporation Ltd. | B+ | 76/100 | 13.2x | 66.6% | 19.6% | -5.32% | $1.29B | Benchmark Subject |
| CCEC Capital Clean Energy Carriers Corp. Common Share | D+ | 54/100 | 7.0x | — | 4.9% | +0.74% | $1.31B | /ccec-vs-tk → |
| NVGS Navigator Holdings Ltd. (Marshall Islands) | C- | 59/100 | 13.4x | — | 12.2% | -7.02% | $1.33B | /nvgs-vs-tk → |
| GNK Genco Shipping & Trading Limited New (Marshall Islands) | D | 49/100 | — | — | 0.6% | -5.46% | $1.14B | /gnk-vs-tk → |
| GSL Global Ship Lease Inc (Class A) | C | 64/100 | 3.6x | — | 16.6% | -3.62% | $1.50B | /gsl-vs-tk → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000911971 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) reported GAAP revenue of $949.5M (-22.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.22B , and -35.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $98.1M, operating cash flow of $301.8M, and free cash flow of $111.5M (-71.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, TK closed FY2025 with $2.36B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.20, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $949.5M | $98.1M | $301.8M | $111.5M | $2.36B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $1.22B | $133.8M | $467.2M | $396.7M | $2.15B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.46B | $150.6M | $629.8M | $629.8M | — | — |
3. TK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs TK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Teekay Corporation Ltd. (NYSE: TK) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $14.07 (-5.32% 1D, market cap $1.29B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TK ranks #55 in composite RQD confidence.
How does TK compare to CCEC and NVGS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Marine Transportation), TK carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.2x, gross margin of 66.6%, and ROIC of 19.6%. By comparison, CCEC (Capital Clean Energy Carriers Corp. Common Share) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 7.0x, ROIC 4.9%, cap $1.31B) and NVGS (Navigator Holdings Ltd. (Marshall Islands)) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 13.4x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $1.33B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GSL leads on earnings multiple (3.6x) while TK leads on capital efficiency (19.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TK?
Per TK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000911971), Teekay Corporation Ltd. generated $949.5M in revenue (-22.2% YoY), $98.1M in net income, and $111.5M in free cash flow against $2.36B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (66.6% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is TK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
TK last traded at $14.07 (-5.32% on volume of 564,582 shares), positioning the stock -0.85% below its 50-day simple moving average ($14.19) and +13.10% above its 200-day simple moving average ($12.44). Across its 52-week range of $8.67 to $15.90, TK sits at the 74.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.8% ($13.11 to $15.03).
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 76/100 (B+)
✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED
TK — Teekay Corporation Ltd.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 76/100, corresponding to a B+ letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $14.07 (-5.32% 1D, market capitalization $1.29B).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 19.6%, gross margin of 66.6%, operating margin of 31.9%, and free cash flow yield of 8.62%.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (17/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 5.20, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Marine Transportation industry (Consumer Discretionary sector) with an equity market capitalization of $1.29B. The business operates with a gross margin of 66.6%, an operating margin of 31.9%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 19.6% (free cash flow yield of 8.62%). Within the Marine Transportation peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) reported $949.5M in annual revenue (up from $1.22B in FY2024, -22.2% YoY) and $98.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.46B revenue, $150.6M net income) through FY2025, TK scaled operating cash flow to $301.8M and free cash flow to $111.5M, backed by $2.36B in total assets against $0 in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B+ • RQD 76/100): Strong cash generator (66.6% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $8.67 – $15.90 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 13.2x trailing P/E against 31.9% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
The source data therefore does not identify upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations for TK.
- Key Question #1: Can TK sustain or expand its 31.9% operating margin and 19.6% ROIC against Marine Transportation peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $949.5M and free cash flow of $111.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is TK's 12.3x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?
TK Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 21h ago
Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) Seasonal Returns Chart - Yahoo Finance Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago
Teekay (NYSE:TK) Sets New 1-Year High - Here's What Happened MarketBeat report covering Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE GlobeNewswire • 1d ago
Teekay Group to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Results on November 11, 2026 GlobeNewswire report covering Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Traders Daily • 1d ago
Technical Reactions to TK Trends in Macro Strategies Stock Traders Daily report covering Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago
Teekay (NYSE:TK) Stock Price Breaks Above Two Hundred Day Moving Average - Here's What Happened MarketBeat report covering Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago
Teekay (NYSE:TK) Shares Gap Up - Here's Why MarketBeat report covering Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago
Teekay (TK) Projected to Release Quarterly Earnings on Thursday MarketBeat report covering Teekay Corporation Ltd. (TK) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 16d ago
Teekay (TK) Stock Still Looks Like A Bargain Today Teekay has delivered a very strong share price run in recent years, which puts fresh attention on what investors are paying for its earnings today. After such a move, the key issue is whether the current valuation of the
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
TK Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $14.07?
🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TK 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $17.68 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate The Roarable RQD rating scores TK 77 with insider conviction at 17/20 and macro regime fit at 17/20, alongside a 6.59% dividend yield a
Don't sleep on TK's setup in Consumer Discretionary. The Roarable RQD rating scores TK 77 with insider conviction at 17/20 and macro regime fit at 17/20, alongside a 6.59% dividend yield and 8.62% FCF yield.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (76/100) backs up the fundamental quality.
SectorRotator 🐂 BULL
@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 13.2x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Marine Transportation. If gross margin (66.6%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.
CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $12.19 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $14.86 Reported revenue fell from $1.47B in FY 2023 to $949.5M in FY 2025 and net income fell from $150.6M to $98.1M, while EV/EBITDA is una
Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short TK above $14.86. Reported revenue fell from $1.47B in FY 2023 to $949.5M in FY 2025 and net income fell from $150.6M to $98.1M, while EV/EBITDA is unavailable.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20) and FCF yield (8.62%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $15.90.