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Stock Ratings / Technology / SMCI / earnings
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Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.1% Move

$32.95 -4.30% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $32.63

Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $22.62B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SMCI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SMCI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $32.95 (-4.30% 1D, market cap $22.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 9/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, SMCI ranks #231 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SMCI compare to HPQ and IBM in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Computer Manufacturing), SMCI carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.6x, gross margin of 11.1%, and ROIC of 8.4%. By comparison, HPQ (HP Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 11.3x, ROIC 51.0%, cap $28.70B) and IBM (International Business Machines Corporation) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 23.0x, ROIC 13.8%, cap $244.11B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HPQ leads on earnings multiple (11.3x) while HPQ leads on capital efficiency (51.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMCI?
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Per SMCI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001375365), Super Micro Computer Inc. generated $21.97B in revenue (+46.6% YoY), $1.05B in net income, and $1.53B in free cash flow against $28.00B in total assets and $9.45B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $32.63 (-0.96%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510060
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D+
Cash (14)Whales (9)SEC (9)Macro (13)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target
$56 Bull$33 Base$26 Bear
📬 FREE SMCI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SMCI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SMCI SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 7% FCF Margin ($1.53B FCF) & 11.1% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 11 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
68
Grade B-$39.07-16.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
65
Grade C+$32.47+8.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
63
Grade C+$35.09-6.1% Next Q
Current
60
Grade C-$32.95+0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (68) → C- (60)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SMCI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, SMCI faces multiple-compression risk if 21.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($38.16) or 200D SMA ($32.70) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($33.25) toward Bear Floor ($25.94).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SMCI• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SMCI Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 28, 2026 (~55 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.1% Swing Band

±$3.99 Expected Swing
$28.96 (-12.1%)Spot $32.95$36.94 (+12.1%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

SMCI Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 60/100

Trailing EPS: $1.60 • YoY Revenue Growth: 46.6%

Model Bullish Setup (60/100)Model Risk Weight (40/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-06-30$21.97B$1.05B$1.53B11.1%
FY 20242024-06-30$14.99B$1.15B-$2.61B13.8%
FY 20232023-06-30$7.12B$640.0M$343.0M11.1%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating SMCI & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on SMCI
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
SMCI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +18.02%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $35.81H $35.81L $32.95C $32.95VOL 25.31M
RES: $47.50SUP: $32.06SMA50: $38.16SMA200: $32.70
$53.36$45.24$37.11$28.98$20.86RES $47.50SUP $32.06$32.952026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SMCI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SMCI Butterfly Map → + Track SMCI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
15.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +46.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
DEVELOPING · 200D Mean-Reversion & Governance Audit Watch

Trigger: $36.67 • Invalidation: $31.33

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →
NVDA → SMCI Confirmed Filing
Super Micro integrates NVIDIA HGX and Blackwell GPUs into rack-scale Direct Liquid Cooling (DLC) servers, driving rapid top-line revenue expansion but intense working-capital and margin sensitivity.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video 💡 Share-Count Creep & Refinancing Watch: Separating Real Free Cash Flow from SBC Dilution (gideon-ashmere) 💡 Starter Kit: Forensic Dilution & Refinancing Stress Watch (gideon-ashmere)
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SMCI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SMCI)

Technology Rank #231 of 714 ⚔️ HPQ vs SMCI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (SMCI vs. HPQ, IBM, DELL, OMCL)

Industry: Computer Manufacturing (9 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) ranks #231 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #103 by equity capitalization ($22.62B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HPQ leads on earnings valuation at 11.3x trailing P/E, while HPQ leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 51.0% ROIC and 20.6% gross margin. IBM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with SMCI at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SMCI ACTIVE
Super Micro Computer Inc.
C- 60/100 21.6x 11.1% 8.4% -4.30% $22.62B Benchmark Subject
HPQ
HP Inc.
B- 70/100 11.3x 20.6% 51.0% -9.58% $28.70B /hpq-vs-smci →
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation
B- 71/100 23.0x 58.2% 13.8% -0.18% $244.11B /ibm-vs-smci →
DELL
Dell Technologies Inc. (Class C)
B- 71/100 50.9x 20.0% 26.6% -10.77% $302.34B /dell-vs-smci →
OMCL
Omnicell Inc. ($0.001 par value)
D+ 53/100 — 42.5% 0.4% -0.62% $1.68B /omcl-vs-smci →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001375365

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) reported GAAP revenue of $21.97B (+46.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $14.99B , and +208.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.05B, operating cash flow of $1.66B, and free cash flow of $1.53B (+158.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, SMCI closed FY2025 with $28.00B in total assets against $9.45B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.24, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-06-30 $21.97B $1.05B $1.66B $1.53B $28.00B $9.45B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-06-30 $14.99B $1.15B -$2.49B -$2.61B $9.73B $1.57B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-06-30 $7.12B $640.0M $663.6M $343.0M $12.44B $2.91B

3. SMCI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SMCI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $32.95 (-4.30% 1D, market cap $22.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 9/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, SMCI ranks #231 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SMCI compare to HPQ and IBM in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Manufacturing), SMCI carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.6x, gross margin of 11.1%, and ROIC of 8.4%. By comparison, HPQ (HP Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 11.3x, ROIC 51.0%, cap $28.70B) and IBM (International Business Machines Corporation) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 23.0x, ROIC 13.8%, cap $244.11B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HPQ leads on earnings multiple (11.3x) while HPQ leads on capital efficiency (51.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMCI?

Per SMCI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001375365), Super Micro Computer Inc. generated $21.97B in revenue (+46.6% YoY), $1.05B in net income, and $1.53B in free cash flow against $28.00B in total assets and $9.45B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SMCI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SMCI last traded at $32.95 (-4.30% on volume of 38,349,879 shares), positioning the stock -13.65% below its 50-day simple moving average ($38.16) and +0.76% above its 200-day simple moving average ($32.70). Across its 52-week range of $19.48 to $53.01, SMCI sits at the 40.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.1% ($28.96 to $36.94).

SMCI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is SMCI's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 28, 2026.

How much is SMCI stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.1% event move for SMCI, spanning a range between $28.96 and $36.94.

Direct Sub-Reports: SMCI RQD Cockpit SMCI 12M Forecast SMCI Earnings & Move SMCI Dividends & DRIP SMCI Insiders & 13F SMCI Whale Options SMCI Profit Sankey SMCI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 60/100 (C-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

SMCI — Super Micro Computer Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:08:08Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, SMCI scores 60 out of 100, a C- grade, labeled "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20 (ROIC 8.4%; FCF yield 6.77%); Whale 13F Flow 9/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction 15/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit 13/20 (Beta 1.42; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet 9/20 (Altman Z 2.24; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 1.26). The highest-scoring pillar is insider conviction, while the weakest are the whale flow and balance-sheet pillars, each at 9/20. For a prospective investor, the rating suggests a mixed picture: cash-generation metrics are moderate, institutional positioning is not a strong tailwind, and leverage and forensic indicators warrant caution. The beta of 1.42 implies above-market sensitivity to broad moves, and the rating's "Cautious Neutral" framing reflects balanced rather than decisive evidence. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the market data: the stock trades at a P/E of 21.6 (TTM) and 18.1 (forward), against an EV/EBITDA of 20.1, while the 52-week range of $19.48–$53.01 shows wide price dispersion. Upside drivers would need to come from margin improvement and debt reduction; downside risks include the leverage and governance-related concerns noted in the supply-chain section.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
34.43$22.62B21.618.120.11.60%1.42$19.48 - $53.018.4%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$21972.0M$1253.0M$1048.9MN/A$1532.3M$4091.1M$9454.2M
FY 2024$14989.3M$1210.8M$1152.7MN/A$-2610.3M$1430.0M$1570.4M
FY 2023$7123.5M$761.1M$640.0MN/A$343.0MN/A$2911.1M

Per the market data, gross margin is 11.1%, operating margin 5.7%, and net margin 4.8%, with ROIC at 8.4%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.24, the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, and Debt/Equity is 1.26. Debt rose from $1570.4M in FY 2024 to $9454.2M in FY 2025 per the SEC financials, while FY 2025 cash was $4091.1M. FCF swung from $-2610.3M in FY 2024 to $1532.3M in FY 2025.

Open Questions

  • What drove the swing in debt from $1570.4M (FY 2024) to $9454.2M (FY 2025), and what is the maturity profile?
  • What are the EPS figures for each reported period, which the source lists as N/A?
  • What are the article contents behind the news headlines, and do they contain any quantified claims?
  • What is FY 2023 cash, which the source lists as N/A?
  • What governance or audit developments underlie the "governance/audit overhang" risk referenced in the supply-chain graph?

SMCI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SMCI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SMCI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $32.95?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SMCI 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SMCI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $37.18 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is SMCI (C- • RQD 60/100) a Buy at $34.43?

Welcome to the SMCI (Super Micro Computer Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 60/100 (Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral) in Computer Manufacturing. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $28.23 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $34.43

Pump the brakes on SMCI — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on SMCI, but look at what you are paying: 21.6x trailing P/E with 11.1% gross margins. Unless Super Micro Computer Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $39.94 (+16.0%)
Spot @ $34.43

SMCI cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on SMCI, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Computer Manufacturing and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $34.43 (52-wk range $19.48 - $53.01), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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