ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

SMCI // Super Micro Computer Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001375365 ↗
Technology • Computer Manufacturing
$32.95 ▼ -1.48 (-4.30%)
MKT CAP: $22.62B • VOL: 38.35M
SMCI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 60/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
60 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF +158.7% vs NI -9% • ROIC-WACC +0.3% • Z 2.24
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
9 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 45% • VS 200D +5.3% • RSI 44.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
13 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.10 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.25
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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SMCI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +18.02%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $35.81H $35.81L $32.95C $32.95VOL 25.31M
RES: $47.50SUP: $32.06SMA50: $38.16SMA200: $32.70
$53.36$45.24$37.11$28.98$20.86RES $47.50SUP $32.06$32.952026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
SMCI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 68/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) exhibits 11.1% gross margins and 8.4% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Manufacturing), balanced against a 20.1x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 11.1% gross profitability converts into 5.7% operating margin and 8.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 8.4% // GM: 11.1%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +46.6% paired with 6.77% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +46.6% // FCF YLD: 6.77%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.24 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.24 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 21.6x trailing P/E (18.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 21.6x // EV/EBITDA: 20.1x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $32.95 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Manufacturing require continuous execution to defend 4.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 4.8% // D/E: 1.26x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 18.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.42).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 21.6x
FORWARD P/E 18.1x
EV / EBITDA 20.1x
FCF YIELD 6.77%
GROSS MARGIN 11.1%
OPERATING MARGIN 5.7%
NET MARGIN 4.8%
ROIC % 8.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +46.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.60
DEBT / EQUITY 1.26x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 44.9
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.42
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SMCIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $30.15
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>