What is SJM's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for SJM.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / SJM / options

MKC (63) GIS (53) BG (32) DAR (55) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$131.35 +1.12% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $131.37

The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $13.88B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SJM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, The J.M. Smucker Company (NYSE: SJM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $131.35 (+1.12% 1D, market cap $13.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, SJM ranks #52 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SJM compare to MKC and GIS in the Consumer Staples sector?

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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), SJM carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 33.5%, and ROIC of 2.8%. By comparison, MKC (McCormick & Company Incorporated) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $12.72B) and GIS (General Mills Inc.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.8%, cap $18.33B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MKC leads on earnings multiple (16.0x) while MKC leads on capital efficiency (9.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SJM?

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Per SJM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30, CIK 0000091419), The J.M. Smucker Company generated $9.05B in revenue (+3.7% YoY), -$138.7M in net income, and $1.16B in free cash flow against $16.27B in total assets and $6.84B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $131.36 (+0.01%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 12.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SJM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SJM SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (29% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.4% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 90% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 58.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 12 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$121.84+4.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$127.81-1.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$125.46+4.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$131.35+0% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SJM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, SJM faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 31.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($124.39) or 200D SMA ($111.56) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($131.35) toward Bear Floor ($102.45).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SJM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SJM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 28, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±4.4%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (SJM)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for SJM.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SJM)

✓Walkthrough of SJM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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SJM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +35.54%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $126.3H $131.4L $126.3C $131.4VOL 1.70M

RES: $133.6SUP: $118.5SMA50: $124.4SMA200: $111.6

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SJM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SJM Butterfly Map → + Track SJM →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

26.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SJM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SJM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SJM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SJM)

Consumer Staples Rank #52 of 147 ⚔️ MKC vs SJM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (SJM vs. MKC, GIS, BG, DAR)

Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) ranks #52 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #27 by equity capitalization ($13.88B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MKC leads on earnings valuation at 16.0x trailing P/E, while MKC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.7% ROIC and 37.9% gross margin. MKC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with SJM at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SJM ACTIVE The J.M. Smucker Company	D+	58/100	—	33.5%	2.8%	+1.12%	$13.88B	Benchmark Subject
MKC McCormick & Company Incorporated	C	63/100	16.0x	37.9%	9.7%	+3.24%	$12.72B	/mkc-vs-sjm →
GIS General Mills Inc.	D+	53/100	—	33.6%	3.8%	+1.34%	$18.33B	/gis-vs-sjm →
BG Bunge Limited	E	32/100	22.6x	20.1%	3.3%	-2.50%	$18.57B	/bg-vs-sjm →
DAR Darling Ingredients Inc.	D+	55/100	138.6x	24.0%	3.1%	-3.07%	$8.79B	/dar-vs-sjm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-04-30 • CIK 0000091419 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30), The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) reported GAAP revenue of $9.05B (+3.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $8.73B , and +147.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$138.7M, operating cash flow of $1.47B, and free cash flow of $1.16B (+41.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, SJM closed FY2025 with $16.27B in total assets against $6.84B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.30, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-04-30	$9.05B	-$138.7M	$1.47B	$1.16B	$16.27B	$6.84B
FY2024 (FY)	2025-04-30	$8.73B	-$1.23B	$1.21B	$816.6M	$18.43B	$6.39B
FY2023 (FY)	2024-04-30	$3.66B	$744.0M	$1.23B	$1.23B	$7.42B	$1.74B

3. SJM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SJM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does SJM compare to MKC and GIS in the Consumer Staples sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SJM?

Where is SJM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SJM last traded at $131.35 (+1.12% on volume of 1,302,745 shares), positioning the stock +5.60% above its 50-day simple moving average ($124.39) and +17.74% above its 200-day simple moving average ($111.56). Across its 52-week range of $88.25 to $135.89, SJM sits at the 90.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.4% ($125.57 to $137.13).

Direct Sub-Reports: SJM RQD Cockpit SJM 12M Forecast SJM Earnings & Move SJM Dividends & DRIP SJM Insiders & 13F SJM Whale Options SJM Profit Sankey SJM News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 58/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SJM — The J.M. Smucker Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2026-04-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 58/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $131.35 (+1.12% 1D, market capitalization $13.88B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 2.8%, gross margin of 33.5%, operating margin of 4.0%, and free cash flow yield of 8.57%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.10x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.30, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.31x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

The J.M. Smucker Company is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Staples sector and Packaged Foods industry. It carries a market capitalization of $13.5B. Per the recent news wire, the Uncrustables brand is a referenced momentum driver, indicating it is a relevant product franchise for the company.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-04-30), The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) reported $9.05B in annual revenue (up from $8.73B in FY2024, +3.7% YoY) and -$138.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($3.66B revenue, $744.0M net income) through FY2025, SJM scaled operating cash flow to $1.47B and free cash flow to $1.16B, backed by $16.27B in total assets against $6.84B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 58/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of 8.57% and institutional whale pillar of 17/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $88.25 – $135.89 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh current valuation and 29.2x EV/EBITDA against 4.0% operating margins and a 1.10x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not establish upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations. The only sector context provided is the Consumer Staples / Packaged Foods classification. Investors should note that the absence of mapped dependencies is a data gap rather than evidence of an independent business. Interest-rate sensitivity is the one ripple the news wire touches on, given the elevated debt load of $6.84B against the Fed-hold backdrop, and the macro-regime pillar's beta reading of 1.1 is consistent with that exposure.

Key Question #1: Can SJM sustain or expand its 4.0% operating margin and 2.8% ROIC against Packaged Foods peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $9.05B and free cash flow of $1.16B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $6.84B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is SJM's 34.0x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Staples capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.10x)?

SJM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SJM Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 22h ago

J. M. Smucker (SJM) Draws Fresh Valuation Focus, Is The Rally Still Undervalued?

Yahoo Finance report covering The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Can J.M. Smucker's Uncrustables Momentum Accelerate Further?

Yahoo Finance report covering The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

The J. M. Smucker Company (NYSE:SJM) Stock to Pay Quarterly Dividend of $1.12

MarketBeat report covering The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

J. M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions

Simply Wall St report covering The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Inflationary Concerns: 4 Safe Bets

TradingView report covering The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance UK • 1d ago

The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) stock price, news, quote and history

Yahoo Finance UK report covering The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

The J. M. Smucker Company (NYSE:SJM) Stock Has Average Target Price of $136.25

MarketBeat report covering The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST TradingView • 1d ago

Post Holdings' Pet E-Commerce Growth Outpaces Brick-and-Mortar

TradingView report covering The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SJM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $131.35?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SJM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $166.27 (+28.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

The 8.57% FCF yield and institutional accumulation signal suggest cash generation and smart-money interest that the depressed price may

Picked up a starter position in SJM in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $129.90. The 8.57% FCF yield and institutional accumulation signal suggest cash generation and smart-money interest that the depressed price may not fully reflect.. Trading inside a $88.25–$135.89 52-week range with 8.57% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Packaged Foods multiples expand this quarter.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@QuantViper Agree on the RQD 58/100 quality, though with 1.1 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $129.90 and keeping dry powder in case we test $120.81.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $107.82 (-17.0%)

Spot @ $129.90

A 1.3 Altman Z-Score, 1.31 Debt/Equity, 2.8% ROIC, and negative trailing EPS leave the stock priced at 34x forward earnings on weak for

Fading this rally in SJM at $129.90. A 1.3 Altman Z-Score, 1.31 Debt/Equity, 2.8% ROIC, and negative trailing EPS leave the stock priced at 34x forward earnings on weak forensic fundamentals.. With a beta of 1.1 and the stock sitting at $129.90 (52-wk range $88.25–$135.89), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.