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Star Group L.P. (SGU) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$12.88 -0.46% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.84

Star Group L.P. (SGU) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $424.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SGU Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SGU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Star Group L.P. (NYSE: SGU) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $12.88 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $424.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SGU ranks #272 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SGU compare to BNED and HVT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Specialty Stores), SGU carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.8x, gross margin of 31.5%, and ROIC of —. By comparison, BNED (Barnes & Noble Education Inc) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 26.1x, ROIC 10.3%, cap $439.2M) and HVT (Haverty Furniture Companies Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 23.2x, ROIC 6.4%, cap $456.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SGU leads on earnings multiple (5.8x) while BNED leads on capital efficiency (10.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SGU?
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Per SGU's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001002590), Star Group L.P. generated $1.78B in revenue (+1.0% YoY), $73.5M in net income, and $56.0M in free cash flow against $1.05B in total assets and $161.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.85 (-0.27%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 3.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510063
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-
Cash (10)Whales (9)SEC (13)Macro (15)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target
$16 Bull$13 Base$10 Bear
📬 FREE SGU RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SGU)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SGU SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 69% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 49.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
71
Grade B$13.10-0.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
68
Grade B-$13.06-1.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$12.89-0.1% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$12.88+0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (71) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SGU Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, SGU faces multiple-compression risk if 5.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 29.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($12.87) or 200D SMA ($12.77) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($13.17) toward Bear Floor ($10.27).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SGU• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SGU Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your SGU Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $12.88: 776.4 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $10.27
$7,974
$-2,026 (-20.3%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $13.17
$10,225
+$225 (+2.3%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $15.54
$12,065
+$2,065 (+20.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1474%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$1569%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$1258%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SGU Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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SGU // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.38%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $12.92H $12.94L $12.88C $12.88VOL 10.5K
RES: $13.32SUP: $12.40SMA50: $12.87SMA200: $12.77
$13.63$13.22$12.82$12.41$12.00RES $13.32SUP $12.40$12.882026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SGU Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SGU Butterfly Map → + Track SGU →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-11.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SGU today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SGU. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SGU today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SGU)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #272 of 1009 ⚔️ BNED vs SGU Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SGU vs. BNED, HVT, TITN, WOOF)

Industry: Other Specialty Stores (42 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Star Group L.P. (SGU) ranks #272 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #602 by equity capitalization ($424.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SGU leads on earnings valuation at 5.8x trailing P/E, while BNED leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.3% ROIC and 23.4% gross margin. HVT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with SGU at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SGU ACTIVE
Star Group L.P.
C 63/100 5.8x 31.5% — -0.46% $424.6M Benchmark Subject
BNED
Barnes & Noble Education Inc
C 62/100 26.1x 23.4% 10.3% +0.47% $439.2M /bned-vs-sgu →
HVT
Haverty Furniture Companies Inc.
B- 70/100 23.2x 60.7% 6.4% +3.72% $456.6M /hvt-vs-sgu →
TITN
Titan Machinery Inc.
D+ 57/100 — 15.8% -0.7% -1.38% $561.5M /titn-vs-sgu →
WOOF
Petco Health and Wellness Company Inc. (Class A)
D- 43/100 81.5x 38.7% 4.0% +4.98% $747.6M /woof-vs-sgu →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001002590 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Star Group L.P. (SGU) reported GAAP revenue of $1.78B (+1.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.77B , and -8.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $73.5M, operating cash flow of $71.0M, and free cash flow of $56.0M (-44.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, SGU closed FY2025 with $1.05B in total assets against $161.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $1.78B $73.5M $71.0M $56.0M $1.05B $161.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-30 $1.77B $35.2M $111.0M $100.3M $986.8M $182.7M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $1.95B $31.9M $123.7M $123.7M — —

3. SGU Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SGU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Star Group L.P. (NYSE: SGU) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $12.88 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $424.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SGU ranks #272 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SGU compare to BNED and HVT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Specialty Stores), SGU carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.8x, gross margin of 31.5%, and ROIC of —. By comparison, BNED (Barnes & Noble Education Inc) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 26.1x, ROIC 10.3%, cap $439.2M) and HVT (Haverty Furniture Companies Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 23.2x, ROIC 6.4%, cap $456.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SGU leads on earnings multiple (5.8x) while BNED leads on capital efficiency (10.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SGU?

Per SGU's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001002590), Star Group L.P. generated $1.78B in revenue (+1.0% YoY), $73.5M in net income, and $56.0M in free cash flow against $1.05B in total assets and $161.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SGU trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SGU last traded at $12.88 (-0.46% on volume of 17,751 shares), positioning the stock +0.08% above its 50-day simple moving average ($12.87) and +0.86% above its 200-day simple moving average ($12.77). Across its 52-week range of $11.41 to $13.53, SGU sits at the 69.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.0% ($12.49 to $13.27).

Direct Sub-Reports: SGU RQD Cockpit SGU 12M Forecast SGU Earnings & Move SGU Dividends & DRIP SGU Insiders & 13F SGU Whale Options SGU Profit Sankey SGU News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SGU — Star Group L.P.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-09-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Star Group L.P. (SGU) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 63/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $12.88 (-0.46% 1D, market capitalization $424.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of 31.5%, operating margin of 6.4%, and free cash flow yield of 13.22%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (15/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Star Group L.P. (SGU) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Other Specialty Stores industry..4B. — for detail on products, customers, or revenue model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), Star Group L.P. (SGU) reported $1.78B in annual revenue (up from $1.77B in FY2024, +1.0% YoY) and $73.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.95B revenue, $31.9M net income) through FY2025, SGU scaled operating cash flow to $71.0M and free cash flow to $56.0M, backed by $1.05B in total assets against $161.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 63/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 13.22% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $11.41 – $13.53 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 5.8x trailing P/E and 4.5x EV/EBITDA against 6.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector is Consumer Discretionary and industry is Other Specialty Stores. — for upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks.

  • Key Question #1: Can SGU sustain or expand its 6.4% operating margin and — ROIC against Other Specialty Stores peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.78B and free cash flow of $56.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $161.9M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SGU's 5.4x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

SGU Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Star Group L.P. (SGU) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SGU Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 86d ago
Star Group Q3 Earnings Call Highlights

Star Group (NYSE:SGU) reported a wider fiscal third-quarter loss as higher insurance claims, lower heating-oil and propane volumes and an unfavorable change in derivative values outweighed improved service and installati

Read Full Source ↗
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SGU Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.88?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SGU 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SGU:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $15.27 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Trades at 5.8x TTM earnings with a 13.22% FCF yield and a 6.16% dividend yield, while the insider pillar scores 16 of 20.

Here is why I am bullish on SGU here at $12.94: Trades at 5.8x TTM earnings with a 13.22% FCF yield and a 6.16% dividend yield, while the insider pillar scores 16 of 20.. Compare SGU's 6.4% operating margin and 0.0% ROIC against the rest of Other Specialty Stores. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $12.29 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@RedlineAuditor Fair point on 5.8x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Other Specialty Stores. If gross margin (31.5%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $11.13 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $12.94

ROIC is 0%, institutional flow scores only 9 of 20, and revenue has declined from $1.95B in FY 2023 to $1.78B in FY 2025.

I respect the product at Star Group L.P., but the stock at $12.94 is a different story. ROIC is 0%, institutional flow scores only 9 of 20, and revenue has declined from $1.95B in FY 2023 to $1.78B in FY 2025.. FCF yield is 13.22% and RQD sits at 63/100 (C) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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