Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$18.45 -1.83% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.35

Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $618.9M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PZZA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Papa John's International Inc. (NASDAQ: PZZA) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $18.45 (-1.83% 1D, market cap $618.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PZZA ranks #328 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PZZA compare to HDL and BRCB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), PZZA carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 30.5%. By comparison, HDL (SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $643.8M) and BRCB (Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.6%, cap $530.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PZZA leads on earnings multiple (20.3x) while PZZA leads on capital efficiency (30.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PZZA?
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Per PZZA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0000901491), Papa John's International Inc. generated $2.05B in revenue (-0.3% YoY), $30.5M in net income, and $61.3M in free cash flow against $837.5M in total assets and $710.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.35 (-0.52%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510061
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D+
Cash (19)Whales (4)SEC (14)Macro (8)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.4% Base Target
$55 Bull$19 Base$15 Bear
📬 FREE PZZA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PZZA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY PZZA SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3% FCF Margin ($61.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
69
Grade B-$19.67-3.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
66
Grade B-$18.97-3.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$18.23+1.2% Next Q
Current
61
Grade C-$18.45+0.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (69) → C- (61)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PZZA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, PZZA faces multiple-compression risk if 20.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.40) or 200D SMA ($29.95) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($18.70) toward Bear Floor ($14.59).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PZZA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “PZZA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 27, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
43.630 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.37>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
4 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE2% OF RANGE
L: $18$18.45H: $52
1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: A+RQD 19 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on PZZA

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (95)

30.5% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 9.91% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (70)

Altman-Z 3.37 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (47)

20/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like PZZA
  • ✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (PZZA Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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PZZA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -46.58%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-02O $18.54H $18.80L $18.45C $18.45VOL 1.27M
RES: $17.35SUP: $16.22SMA50: $20.40SMA200: $29.95
$42.47$35.76$29.04$22.33$15.62RES $17.35SUP $16.22$18.452026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PZZA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
13.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PZZA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PZZA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PZZA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PZZA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #328 of 1011 ⚔️ HDL vs PZZA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (PZZA vs. HDL, BRCB, CNNE, FWRG)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) ranks #328 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #565 by equity capitalization ($618.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PZZA leads on earnings valuation at 20.3x trailing P/E, while PZZA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.5% ROIC and — gross margin. PZZA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
PZZA ACTIVE
Papa John's International Inc.
C- 61/100 20.3x — 30.5% -1.83% $618.9M Benchmark Subject
HDL
SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.
D 46/100 — — — 0.00% $643.8M /hdl-vs-pzza →
BRCB
Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A)
D- 36/100 — — 1.6% -1.79% $530.3M /brcb-vs-pzza →
CNNE
Cannae Holdings Inc.
E 34/100 — 15.5% -10.6% -0.06% $743.9M /cnne-vs-pzza →
FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc.
D- 37/100 39.7x — 3.6% +1.84% $772.0M /fwrg-vs-pzza →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-28 • CIK 0000901491

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28), Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) reported GAAP revenue of $2.05B (-0.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.06B , and -3.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $30.5M, operating cash flow of $126.0M, and free cash flow of $61.3M (+79.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, PZZA closed FY2025 with $837.5M in total assets against $710.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.37, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-28 $2.05B $30.5M $126.0M $61.3M $837.5M $710.4M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-29 $2.06B $83.5M $106.6M $34.1M $889.0M $741.6M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.14B $82.1M $193.1M $193.1M — —

3. PZZA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PZZA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Papa John's International Inc. (NASDAQ: PZZA) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $18.45 (-1.83% 1D, market cap $618.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PZZA ranks #328 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PZZA compare to HDL and BRCB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), PZZA carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 30.5%. By comparison, HDL (SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $643.8M) and BRCB (Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.6%, cap $530.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PZZA leads on earnings multiple (20.3x) while PZZA leads on capital efficiency (30.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PZZA?

Per PZZA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0000901491), Papa John's International Inc. generated $2.05B in revenue (-0.3% YoY), $30.5M in net income, and $61.3M in free cash flow against $837.5M in total assets and $710.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PZZA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PZZA last traded at $18.45 (-1.83% on volume of 1,484,730 shares), positioning the stock -9.56% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.40) and -38.40% below its 200-day simple moving average ($29.95). Across its 52-week range of $17.70 to $52.02, PZZA sits at the 2.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.8% ($17.20 to $19.70).

PZZA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell PZZA stock right now?

Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold — HOLD) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (31% return on capital), mixed timing at 20x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is PZZA's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

PZZA's 12-month base price target is $18.7 (range $14.59 to $54.62), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 61/100 (C-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

PZZA — Papa John's International Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:34:27Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, PZZA scores 61 out of 100, a letter grade of C-, with a verdict of "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20 (ROIC 30.5%; FCF yield 9.91%), Whale 13F Flow 4/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction 16/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit 8/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet 14/20 (Altman Z 3.37; Piotroski F 4/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The strongest pillar is the cash engine, which implies the business converts capital into returns efficiently per the stated ROIC and FCF yield. The weakest pillar is institutional flow at 4/20, which signals limited recent institutional accumulation per the same rating. Macro fit at 8/20 indicates the stock's sector sensitivity is not a source of support in this framework. The balance sheet score is moderate: a Piotroski F of 4/9 is a mid-range reading, and the Altman Z of 3.37 sits in the figures provided. For a prospective investor, the rating points to a mixed setup: attractive cash-generation metrics and a notable dividend yield, offset by weak institutional support, modest macro alignment, and a sharp price decline visible in the 52-week range ($17.7 – $52.02). This is an analytical reading of the source data, not personalized advice.

Snapshot

MetricValue
Price18.8
Market Cap$618.9M
P/E (TTM)20.3
Forward P/E18.9
EV/EBITDA9
EPS (TTM)0.93
Dividend Yield9.88%
Beta1.0
52-Wk Range$17.7 - $52.02
ROIC %30.5%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$2053.8M$89.1M$30.5MN/A$61.3M$34.6M$710.4M
FY 2024$2059.4M$156.7M$83.5MN/A$34.1M$38.0M$741.6M
FY 2023$2135.7M$147.1M$82.1MN/A$193.1MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue was broadly flat across the three periods while operating and net income declined from FY 2023 to FY 2025. Market data reports an operating margin of 4.3%, a net margin of 1.5%, and a gross margin of 0%. ROIC is 30.5% per the market data and RQD rating. The Altman Z-Score is 3.37 and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, both per the RQD rating, with Debt/Equity of 0.5. Debt declined from $741.6M to $710.4M between FY 2024 and FY 2025.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Risk Watch (Yahoo Finance): A headline references a 61% fall, flagged RED / RISK WATCH.
  • Securities class action (Morningstar, SueWallSt): Reminder of a class action deadline on November 2, 2026, flagged YELLOW.
  • Market wire (Yahoo Finance Singapore, GlobeNewswire): Stock quote and shareholder alert items, flagged YELLOW.
  • Analyst rating (MarketBeat): Report that the stock rating was raised to Hold at Zacks Research, flagged GREEN / CATALYST.
  • Shareholder rights notice (Business Wire, Rosen Law Firm): Solicitation to stockholders regarding their rights, flagged YELLOW.

The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What is the cause of the drop referenced as a 61% fall, and what fundamental events drove it?
  • What is the basis for the reported 9.88% dividend yield, and is it sustainable given net margin of 1.5% and FCF of $61.3M in FY 2025?
  • What is the resolution of the securities class action referenced with a November 2, 2026 deadline?
  • What drives the gap between the FY 2025 cash-flow decline and the cash-engine score, and what is the EPS for each reported period (currently N/A)?
  • What is the company's business model detail, including product lines, customer base, and geographic exposure?

PZZA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PZZA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PZZA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $18.45?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PZZA 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on PZZA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $20.30 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is PZZA (C- • RQD 61/100) a Buy at $18.80?

Welcome to the PZZA (Papa John's International Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 61/100 (Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral) in Restaurants. Bulls point to capital efficiency (30.5% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $15.60 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $18.80

Pump the brakes on PZZA — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on PZZA, but look at what you are paying: 20.3x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Papa John's International Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $23.50 (+25.0%)
Spot @ $18.80

PZZA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on PZZA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Restaurants and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $18.80 (52-wk range $17.70 - $52.02), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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