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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / LOCO
DIN (66) KRUS (18) BRCB (34) PTLO (42) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (LOCO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$15.57 +1.77% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.59

El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (LOCO) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $465.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on LOCO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LOCO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LOCO) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $15.57 (+1.77% 1D, market cap $465.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, LOCO ranks #235 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LOCO compare to DIN and KRUS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), LOCO carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, DIN (Dine Brands Global Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 26.0x, ROIC —, cap $449.5M) and KRUS (Kura Sushi USA Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (18/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.9%, cap $424.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LOCO leads on earnings multiple (17.7x) while LOCO leads on capital efficiency (11.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LOCO?
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Per LOCO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001606366), El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. generated $117.7M in revenue (+2.1% YoY), $26.5M in net income, and $25.4M in free cash flow against $606.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.59 (+0.13%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 21.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510065
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C+
Cash (13)Whales (11)SEC (13)Macro (14)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target
$19 Bull$16 Base$13 Bear
📬 FREE LOCO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LOCO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY LOCO SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 76% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 53.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
73
Grade B$15.82-0.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
70
Grade B$15.70-6.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
68
Grade B-$14.62+6.5% Next Q
Current
65
Grade C$15.57+1.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (73) → C (65)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the LOCO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, LOCO faces multiple-compression risk if 17.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($14.97) or 200D SMA ($14.13) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($16.06) toward Bear Floor ($12.53).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LOCO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “LOCO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
53.230 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
5 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE76% OF RANGE
L: $10$15.57H: $17
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on LOCO

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (65)

11.7% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 5.44% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (65)

25/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 14/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like LOCO
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (LOCO Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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LOCO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.77%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $15.37H $15.57L $15.30C $15.57VOL 178.9K
RES: $16.43SUP: $13.33SMA50: $14.97SMA200: $14.13
$17.84$16.01$14.18$12.34$10.51RES $16.43SUP $13.33$15.572026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LOCO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LOCO Butterfly Map → + Track LOCO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
10.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +2.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LOCO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LOCO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LOCO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LOCO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #235 of 1009 ⚔️ DIN vs LOCO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (LOCO vs. DIN, KRUS, BRCB, PTLO)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (LOCO) ranks #235 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #589 by equity capitalization ($465.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LOCO leads on earnings valuation at 17.7x trailing P/E, while LOCO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.7% ROIC and — gross margin. DIN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with LOCO at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
LOCO ACTIVE
El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc.
C 65/100 17.7x — 11.7% +1.77% $465.6M Benchmark Subject
DIN
Dine Brands Global Inc.
C+ 66/100 26.0x 40.9% — +2.76% $449.5M /din-vs-loco →
KRUS
Kura Sushi USA Inc. (Class A)
E 18/100 — — -1.9% +3.52% $424.8M /krus-vs-loco →
BRCB
Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A)
E 34/100 — — 1.6% +2.07% $520.8M /brcb-vs-loco →
PTLO
Portillo's Inc. (Class A)
D- 42/100 17.9x — 4.9% +6.37% $369.8M /ptlo-vs-loco →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001606366 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (LOCO) reported GAAP revenue of $117.7M (+2.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $115.3M , and +5.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $26.5M, operating cash flow of $48.1M, and free cash flow of $25.4M (-8.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, LOCO closed FY2025 with $606.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $117.7M $26.5M $48.1M $25.4M $606.6M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-25 $115.3M $25.7M $46.8M $27.7M $592.0M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-27 $111.4M $25.6M $40.7M $40.7M — —

3. LOCO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LOCO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LOCO) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $15.57 (+1.77% 1D, market cap $465.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, LOCO ranks #235 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LOCO compare to DIN and KRUS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), LOCO carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, DIN (Dine Brands Global Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 26.0x, ROIC —, cap $449.5M) and KRUS (Kura Sushi USA Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (18/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.9%, cap $424.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LOCO leads on earnings multiple (17.7x) while LOCO leads on capital efficiency (11.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LOCO?

Per LOCO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001606366), El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. generated $117.7M in revenue (+2.1% YoY), $26.5M in net income, and $25.4M in free cash flow against $606.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LOCO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LOCO last traded at $15.57 (+1.77% on volume of 266,223 shares), positioning the stock +4.01% above its 50-day simple moving average ($14.97) and +10.19% above its 200-day simple moving average ($14.13). Across its 52-week range of $9.84 to $17.40, LOCO sits at the 75.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.4% ($14.57 to $16.57).

Direct Sub-Reports: LOCO RQD Cockpit LOCO 12M Forecast LOCO Earnings & Move LOCO Dividends & DRIP LOCO Insiders & 13F LOCO Whale Options LOCO Profit Sankey LOCO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 65/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

LOCO — El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (LOCO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 65/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $15.57 (+1.77% 1D, market capitalization $465.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.7%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 5.44%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (LOCO) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Restaurants industry (Consumer Discretionary sector) with an equity market capitalization of $465.6M. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.7% (free cash flow yield of 5.44%). Within the Restaurants peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (LOCO) reported $117.7M in annual revenue (up from $115.3M in FY2024, +2.1% YoY) and $26.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($111.4M revenue, $25.6M net income) through FY2025, LOCO scaled operating cash flow to $48.1M and free cash flow to $25.4M, backed by $606.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 65/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 5.44% and institutional whale pillar of 11/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $9.84 – $17.40 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 17.7x trailing P/E and 7.5x EV/EBITDA against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or proprietary signal links are recorded.

  • Key Question #1: Can LOCO sustain or expand its — operating margin and 11.7% ROIC against Restaurants peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $117.7M and free cash flow of $25.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is LOCO's 16.5x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

LOCO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (LOCO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to LOCO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LOCO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $15.57?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LOCO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on LOCO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $19.12 (+25.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction (14/20) and macro fit (14/20) are the RQD's strongest pillars, with a 5.44% FCF yield and 11.7% ROIC supporting the

Don't sleep on LOCO's setup in Consumer Discretionary. Insider conviction (14/20) and macro fit (14/20) are the RQD's strongest pillars, with a 5.44% FCF yield and 11.7% ROIC supporting the cash-engine case.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (65/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — LOCO's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $13.16 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $15.30

Free cash flow fell from $40.7M in FY 2023 to $25.4M in FY 2025 while whale-flow scores only 12/20, leaving institutional support weak.

Fading this rally in LOCO at $15.30. Free cash flow fell from $40.7M in FY 2023 to $25.4M in FY 2025 while whale-flow scores only 12/20, leaving institutional support weak.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $15.30 (52-wk range $9.84–$17.40), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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