What is PAG's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for PAG.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / PAG / options

MUSA (74) KMX (54) CASY (66) CPRT (71) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$213.25 +0.53% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $213.05

Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $13.93B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PAG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Penske Automotive Group Inc. (NYSE: PAG) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $213.25 (+0.53% 1D, market cap $13.93B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PAG ranks #363 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PAG compare to MUSA and KMX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), PAG carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.9x, gross margin of 16.4%, and ROIC of 13.8%. By comparison, MUSA (Murphy USA Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 21.1x, ROIC 24.5%, cap $9.83B) and KMX (CarMax Inc) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 32.3x, ROIC 1.7%, cap $7.89B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PAG leads on earnings multiple (14.9x) while MUSA leads on capital efficiency (24.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PAG?

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Per PAG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001019849), Penske Automotive Group Inc. generated $31.81B in revenue (-0.2% YoY), $935.4M in net income, and -$456.3M in free cash flow against $17.60B in total assets and $1.81B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $213.06 (-0.09%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PAG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PAG SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (28% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±1.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.20 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (58.2) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$194.79+8.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$212.05+0% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$211.95+0.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$213.25+0% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PAG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, PAG faces multiple-compression risk if 14.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($210.14) or 200D SMA ($183.47) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($213.25) toward Bear Floor ($166.34).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PAG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PAG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±1.8%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (PAG)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for PAG.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring PAG)

✓Walkthrough of PAG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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PAG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +29.31%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-11-03O $212.3H $213.3L $212.1C $213.3VOL 405.1K

RES: $211.8SUP: $198.4SMA50: $210.1SMA200: $183.5

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PAG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PAG Butterfly Map → + Track PAG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

7.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PAG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PAG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PAG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PAG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #363 of 1011 ⚔️ MUSA vs PAG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (PAG vs. MUSA, KMX, CASY, CPRT)

Industry: Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) ranks #363 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #133 by equity capitalization ($13.93B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PAG leads on earnings valuation at 14.9x trailing P/E, while MUSA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.5% ROIC and — gross margin. MUSA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with PAG at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PAG ACTIVE Penske Automotive Group Inc.	D+	58/100	14.9x	16.4%	13.8%	+0.53%	$13.93B	Benchmark Subject
MUSA Murphy USA Inc.	B	74/100	21.1x	—	24.5%	-4.10%	$9.83B	/musa-vs-pag →
KMX CarMax Inc	D+	54/100	32.3x	10.8%	1.7%	+1.51%	$7.89B	/kmx-vs-pag →
CASY Casey's General Stores Inc.	C+	66/100	35.1x	—	12.0%	-1.77%	$25.14B	/casy-vs-pag →
CPRT Copart Inc.	B-	71/100	17.6x	—	15.1%	+5.97%	$27.91B	/cprt-vs-pag →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001019849

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) reported GAAP revenue of $31.81B (-0.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $31.86B , and +2.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $935.4M, operating cash flow of $975.1M, and free cash flow of -$456.3M (-124.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, PAG closed FY2025 with $17.60B in total assets against $1.81B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$31.81B	$935.4M	$975.1M	-$456.3M	$17.60B	$1.81B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$31.86B	$968.9M	$1.23B	-$203.3M	$17.12B	$1.13B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$30.92B	$1.11B	$1.15B	-$246.0M	$37.10B	$8.68B

3. PAG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PAG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does PAG compare to MUSA and KMX in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PAG?

Where is PAG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PAG last traded at $213.25 (+0.53% on volume of 488,157 shares), positioning the stock +1.48% above its 50-day simple moving average ($210.14) and +16.23% above its 200-day simple moving average ($183.47). Across its 52-week range of $140.12 to $227.00, PAG sits at the 84.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($209.41 to $217.09).

Direct Sub-Reports: PAG RQD Cockpit PAG 12M Forecast PAG Earnings & Move PAG Dividends & DRIP PAG Insiders & 13F PAG Whale Options PAG Profit Sankey PAG News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 58/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

PAG — Penske Automotive Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 58/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $213.25 (+0.53% 1D, market capitalization $13.93B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.8%, gross margin of 16.4%, operating margin of 4.0%, and free cash flow yield of -3.27%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.06x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.20, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.33x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Penske Automotive Group Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations industry. The profile describes the company as operating in this industry with a market capitalization of $13.9B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) reported $31.81B in annual revenue (up from $31.86B in FY2024, -0.2% YoY) and $935.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($30.92B revenue, $1.11B net income) through FY2025, PAG scaled operating cash flow to $975.1M and free cash flow to -$456.3M, backed by $17.60B in total assets against $1.81B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 58/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of -3.27% and institutional whale pillar of 16/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $140.12 – $227.00 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 14.9x trailing P/E and 6.3x EV/EBITDA against 4.0% operating margins and a 1.06x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations (Consumer Discretionary), PAG carries a macro regime beta of 1.06 and gross margin of 16.4%.

Key Question #1: Can PAG sustain or expand its 4.0% operating margin and 13.8% ROIC against Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $31.81B and free cash flow of -$456.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.81B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is PAG's 13.9x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.06x)?

PAG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PAG Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 21h ago

Why Is Penske Automotive Group (PAG) Stock Soaring Today

Yahoo Finance report covering Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Automotive News • 1d ago

In our opinion: Penske’s go-private deal is about control more than capital

Automotive News report covering Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Penske Automotive Group jumps 9% on go-private agreement (PAG:NYSE)

Seeking Alpha report covering Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Benzinga • 1d ago

Why Is Penske Automotive Stock Soaring Thursday? - Penske Automotive Group (NYSE:PAG)

Benzinga report covering Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) To Be Taken Private at $212/Share

TradingView report covering Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Is Penske Automotive Group (PAG) Undervalued At The $212 Take Private Price?

Yahoo Finance report covering Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Penske Automotive Group (NYSE:PAG) surprises with Q3 2026 sales

TradingView report covering Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Penske Automotive to Be Taken Private at $16.3 Billion Valuation

Yahoo Finance report covering Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PAG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $213.25?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PAG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $275.76 (+30.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

A reported go-private agreement at $212/share and a 13.8% ROIC give the stock a clear value-realization catalyst.

Here is why I am bullish on PAG here at $212.12: A reported go-private agreement at $212/share and a 13.8% ROIC give the stock a clear value-realization catalyst.. Compare PAG's 4.0% operating margin and 13.8% ROIC against the rest of Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $201.51 are getting bought.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — PAG's 14/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $171.82 (-19.0%)

Spot @ $212.12

Negative free-cash-flow yield of -3.27% and a D+ RQD grade indicate weak cash generation despite positive net income.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short PAG above $212.12. Negative free-cash-flow yield of -3.27% and a D+ RQD grade indicate weak cash generation despite positive net income.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20) and FCF yield (-3.27%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $227.00.